psuhoffman Posted February 23, 2016 Share Posted February 23, 2016 Eps still gets to the good look by March 6. It's not pushing it back in time. Before that it's backing off everything for the same reason, the war. That finally gets pushed up into Greenland around March 6 but until that happens any threats are thread the needle types. ETA: if anything the eps has been improving the look post March 6 the last two runs after a hiccup bad run the night before. We should know soon though. That period will be getting into range soon and the gefs has been better inside 10 days so if the eps starts backing off and the gefs doesn't start to pick up on it in the next 2-3 days then I will fold up my tent. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted February 23, 2016 Share Posted February 23, 2016 Eps still gets to the good look by March 6. It's not pushing it back in time. Before that it's backing off everything for the same reason, the war. That finally gets pushed up into Greenland around March 6 but until that happens any threats are thread the needle types. ETA: if anything the eps has been improving the look post March 6 the last two runs after a hiccup bad run the night before. We should know soon though. That period will be getting into range soon and the gefs has been better inside 10 days so if the eps starts backing off and the gefs doesn't start to pick up on it in the next 2-3 days then I will fold up my tent. I agree looking forward from now, that period does look good. Not as good on the GEFS, but not bad. A few days ago, the late Feb/Early March period looked really nice, with the WA ridging moving up into the NAO region and the vortex swinging down under the block. Now it has a more transient look and probably wont work out. I hope the same outcome doesn't occur for the March 10 period. Not to sound like a broken record, but this winter has sucked for legit cold air delivery, and to expect it now as we are headed into Spring is probably a bit wishful. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted February 23, 2016 Share Posted February 23, 2016 I agree looking forward from now, that period does look good. Not as good on the GEFS, but not bad. A few days ago, the late Feb/Early March period looked really nice, with the WA ridging moving up into the NAO region and the vortex swinging down under the block. Now it has a more transient look and probably wont work out. I hope the same outcome doesn't occur for the March 10 period. Not to sound like a broken record, but this winter has sucked for legit cold air delivery, and to expect it now as we are headed into Spring is probably a bit wishful. the good look for the feb 29-March 5 period was really only a quick blip on a couple runs but was always troublesome with the trough axis a little north of what I would like. The period after that has consistently hinted at a return to a southern storm track on the weeklies, the rollover analogs, and now the eps day 10-15. But yes if that starts to back off in the next day or two it's game over. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wonderdog Posted February 23, 2016 Share Posted February 23, 2016 As one of the earlier posters noted, depending on the long range models is futile this year . If something is going to pop I agree that it may be in the mid range 3 to 4 days. That being said next week we have a signal for a storm or two maybe we'll get lucky. Maybe something will pop up over this weekend. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted February 23, 2016 Share Posted February 23, 2016 The WAR cannot be denied this winter. It sucks. I hope the WAR semi-permanent feature this winter doesn't somoehow evolve into a semi-permanent Bermuda High ridge this summer.....but I have a bad feeling it will based on past summer patterns following a strong El Nino. Without any blocking, the storms will cut. Thank god we got the blizzard in January. Without that, we would all be under 10 inches. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EastCoast NPZ Posted February 23, 2016 Share Posted February 23, 2016 Without any blocking, the storms will cut. Thank god we got the blizzard in January. Without that, we would all be under 10 inches. I'd be under 2 inches. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted February 23, 2016 Share Posted February 23, 2016 the good look for the feb 29-March 5 period was really only a quick blip on a couple runs but was always troublesome with the trough axis a little north of what I would like. The period after that has consistently hinted at a return to a southern storm track on the weeklies, the rollover analogs, and now the eps day 10-15. But yes if that starts to back off in the next day or two it's game over. That period was actually pretty steady on the ens means. Thats why it grabbed my interest. Probably the biggest issue is the moving vortex underneath, and the models seem to be having issues resolving that. Early next week is still not dead. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted February 23, 2016 Share Posted February 23, 2016 I'd be under 2 inches. 7 here lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Warm Nose Posted February 23, 2016 Share Posted February 23, 2016 I was expecting some forks to be referenced this morning. What gives? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted February 23, 2016 Share Posted February 23, 2016 Fwiw the para euro ensembles are even more bullish after day 10. Finally gets the ridging away from Nova Scotia and has a nice stj undercut signal. I really want to see what happens with runs as this idea starts to get into range in the next few days. If it's real or a mirage. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted February 23, 2016 Share Posted February 23, 2016 12z GFS...March 3-4 threat tracks to our north. Still 7+ days for that to adjust south. Plenty of time. We gonna steal this thing, just like we did a couple Marches ago. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Interstate Posted February 23, 2016 Share Posted February 23, 2016 Why do we even look past day 5? One small change at the beginning of each run can make huge differences later. A week ago we were saying it was Today was going to be great. Late last week we were saying March 3rd was going to be great... Now we are saying March 8th. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
North Balti Zen Posted February 23, 2016 Share Posted February 23, 2016 Said before, and echo others - look at week of 3/7 and 3/14 for a last hurrah. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wonderdog Posted February 23, 2016 Share Posted February 23, 2016 Why do we even look past day 5? One small change at the beginning of each run can make huge differences later. A week ago we were saying it was Today was going to be great. Late last week we were saying March 3rd was going to be great... Now we are saying March 8th. You know why. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BristowWx Posted February 23, 2016 Share Posted February 23, 2016 Why do we even look past day 5? One small change at the beginning of each run can make huge differences later. A week ago we were saying it was Today was going to be great. Late last week we were saying March 3rd was going to be great... Now we are saying March 8th. don't worry...the train will pull into the station shortly...don't ever remember someone saying first week of April looks solid...its either next few weeks or next winter...just my 2 cents. Did the blizzard really happen this winter? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PivotPoint Posted February 23, 2016 Share Posted February 23, 2016 In the New England forum (typhoon, ORH, etc) a common theme being preached is to watch for key elements of the pattern developing, and to NOT put too much weight into any one op event/solution. I don't want to misrepresent what these guys are saying, but this is an overarching "theme" I keep reading. I also see guys like psu and chill giving the same type of cautionary tale... Personally, I think the ops will struggle greatly with sensible weather outcomes over the next 10-15 days mainly because we have a) -AO dropping down to pay us a visit , which has yet to define its strength and placement, defiant WAR and when/if the positive heights move on to higher latitudes, c) NAO that needs to decide its magnitude of drop (if it does go negative), d) reloading of -epo and mjo moving into phase 8 (hopefully) What I'm getting at is there are a lot of cards being shuffled around at this very moment, in conjunction with a seasonal change on our horizon. We just can't know if after the shuffle calms down if we pull an Ace of the top, or a joker In my mind, I still think there is plenty of hope left for a decent event here in the MA. Whether that means 5" or 20", I'd be happy with either Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted February 23, 2016 Share Posted February 23, 2016 i honestly don't put any stock in the surface past day 5. But looking at h5 the gfs continues to be stubborn. It's not an awful look but the pv rotates around too far north to help much and everything is northern dominant. It actually looks to be getting somewhere better at the end but that's forever out. I'm waiting to see who blinks first the eps or gfs. It's starting to come into range soon so if the euro idea of the pattern is correct we should start to see some better op runs soon. As far as the threats before that. The pattern is flawed, see WAR, but decent enough that the day 9 thing could trend better. Right now the timing is awful coming right between troughs. There are factors the models can't see this far out that could change that. A well timed kicker, different speeds, the storm in front pulling the boundary more south. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
showmethesnow Posted February 23, 2016 Share Posted February 23, 2016 i honestly don't put any stock in the surface past day 5. But looking at h5 the gfs continues to be stubborn. It's not an awful look but the pv rotates around too far north to help much and everything is northern dominant. It actually looks to be getting somewhere better at the end but that's forever out. I'm waiting to see who blinks first the eps or gfs. It's starting to come into range soon so if the euro idea of the pattern is correct we should start to see some better op runs soon. As far as the threats before that. The pattern is flawed, see WAR, but decent enough that the day 9 thing could trend better. Right now the timing is awful coming right between troughs. There are factors the models can't see this far out that could change that. A well timed kicker, different speeds, the storm in front pulling the boundary more south. One thing I don't like is the GEFS is pulling the ridging out west off the coast in the longer range. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted February 23, 2016 Share Posted February 23, 2016 Yea but there is low heights to our northeast fur a change. That's not a bad look. If the ridge was too for east it would be a suppressed look. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted February 23, 2016 Author Share Posted February 23, 2016 What can you say? Sometimes you're the hammer, sometimes you're the nail. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted February 23, 2016 Share Posted February 23, 2016 This isn't bad and it's a much improved step towards the eps long range. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EastCoast NPZ Posted February 23, 2016 Share Posted February 23, 2016 What can you say? Sometimes you're the hammer, sometimes you're the nail. And both are used to nail a coffin shut. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted February 23, 2016 Share Posted February 23, 2016 Yes lower heights to our south would be better bet all that washed out avg look on a mean leads me to think there is room for a stj system to come across. We could hope for a well placed cut off under the blocking too. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted February 23, 2016 Share Posted February 23, 2016 This isn't bad and it's a much improved step towards the eps long range. image.png But these temps are NOT going to get it done on a March 10th. And don't say not to look at the temps, because temps have been the problem multiple times this year. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BristowWx Posted February 23, 2016 Share Posted February 23, 2016 But these temps are NOT going to get it done on a March 10th. And don't say not to look at the temps, because temps have been the problem multiple times this year. All that map does for us is delay the inevitable misery of spring. We gotta score next few weeks or that's all she wrote...I hate March through October...it should always be January in my mind Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted February 23, 2016 Share Posted February 23, 2016 But these temps are NOT going to get it done on a March 10th. And don't say not to look at the temps, because temps have been the problem multiple times this year. We might be able to get snow at night with highs in the 50s. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted February 23, 2016 Author Share Posted February 23, 2016 We might be able to get snow at night with highs in the 50s. Not to be ugly, but is there somebody who really wants that? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted February 23, 2016 Share Posted February 23, 2016 But these temps are NOT going to get it done on a March 10th. And don't say not to look at the temps, because temps have been the problem multiple times this year. Except that is a smoothed out mean. We dont need the temperatures to be -10 all the time, just during precipitation in a storm. That will never show up in a mean. Even up here it was 45-50 the day before and after the March 58 storm. That mean is averaged out between runs that have a storm at that exact time and runs that don't. This is not a crazy cold pattern but its one that we may be able to get something to take a good track under us and hope its just cold enough with a good h5 pass. That said today has been a pretty crappy day of runs so far. The op runs of the GFS and Euro were total crap and if the EPS folds this afternoon or if the ops dont start to come around in the next couple days it wont matter. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted February 23, 2016 Author Share Posted February 23, 2016 Anybody remember the arctic outbreak we were going to get Sunday into next week? Wonder if that guy from SC is still expecting snow? For that matter, wonder if anybody in northern Mich or NY is expecting snow? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted February 23, 2016 Share Posted February 23, 2016 Not to be ugly, but is there somebody who really wants that? lol I hope not. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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