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Severe Potential Feb 23-24


rolltide_130

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* EFFECTIVE THIS TUESDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING FROM 215 PM UNTIL

  1000 PM CST.
 
...THIS IS A PARTICULARLY DANGEROUS SITUATION...
 
* PRIMARY THREATS INCLUDE...
  SEVERAL TORNADOES AND A FEW INTENSE TORNADOES LIKELY
  SCATTERED DAMAGING WIND GUSTS TO 70 MPH LIKELY
  ISOLATED LARGE HAIL EVENTS TO 1 INCH IN DIAMETER POSSIBLE
 
SUMMARY...THUNDERSTORMS WILL INCREASE IN COVERAGE AND INTENSITY
THROUGH THE EVENING AS A STRONG STORM SYSTEM APPROACHES FROM THE
WEST.  THE STORM ENVIRONMENT WILL BECOME FAVORABLE FOR SUPERCELLS
CAPABLE OF PRODUCING A FEW STRONG AND LONG-TRACK TORNADOES INTO
EARLY TONIGHT.
 
THE TORNADO WATCH AREA IS APPROXIMATELY ALONG AND 75 STATUTE
MILES EAST AND WEST OF A LINE FROM 80 MILES EAST NORTHEAST OF
PINE BELT MISSISSIPPI TO 35 MILES SOUTH SOUTHWEST OF GULFPORT
MISSISSIPPI.  FOR A COMPLETE DEPICTION OF THE WATCH SEE THE
ASSOCIATED WATCH OUTLINE UPDATE (WOUS64 KWNS WOU0).
 

 

 

d7de9aa364bf0d6593fa794199392883.jpg

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The shear here is forecast to be on a whole different level than either of those two days, to be fair.

 

90/80 tor probs on that PDS watch.

You're right in that regard. SBCAPE is poised to be just as high or higher in this event, but 11/16 had a widespread area of 1000+ MLCAPE. Another plus for that event was how discrete those supercells were. It was ridiculous.

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That supercell off the SE coast of Louisiana will be interesting later on when it comes ashore (for the second time, first will be in SE LA). Probably in S AL or the FL Panhandle.Counting on it doesn't encounter any kind of deleterious interference.  

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Not sure my brain is tricking my eyes, but it seems like the cluster is starting to move in a more northerly direction. Am I seeing it right?

There is definitely some individual cells/clusters inside of it that are. Hard to tell with the whole mass though. Seems to be making a curve?

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Current temp/DP at Brownsville is 91/48. These readings from S TX can often indicate the approach of a capping inversion, especially tomorrow up into the Carolinas. 

Also McAllen TX is 93/41 and Monterrey MX is 90/23 so the deep south TX observations are very important to how this 2 day event plays out, especially tomorrow.

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PDATE  
PACKAGE UPDATED TO REFLECT TORNADO WATCH NUMBER 20 IN  
EFFECT UNTIL 1000 PM CDT.  
 
WITH MU CAPES OF 1877 J/JG AND 0-3KM HELICITIES OF 322 M^2/S^2  
SHOWING ON THE 18Z SLIDELL SOUNDING...AN APPROACHING UPPER JET AND A  
ROUNDED 55KNT 850MB JET APPROACHING FROM THE WEST...THERE IS A CHANCE  
OF STRONGER AND LONGER TRACK TORNADOES MIXED IN WITH THE INCREASING  
COVERAGE OF SHRA AND THUNDERSTORMS CURRENTLY OVER THE LOWER  
MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY...SHIFTING EASTWARD AS THE AFTERNOON...THEN  
EVENING PROGRESSES.  

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Just saw this posted on Twitter (link: https://cimmse.wordpress.com/2016/02/23/observational-resources-for-the-potential-severe-weather-on-wednesday-24-february-2016/)

 

Observational Resources for the Potential Severe Weather on Wednesday 24 February 2016

 

The latest Severe Weather Outlook from the SPC indicates an enhanced risk of severe weather on Wednesday, 24 February, across central and eastern NC with a slight risk across much of the mid and south-Atlantic with a region of significant severe weather possible in the NC Coastal Plain and the Eastern Piedmont. I thought it might be helpful to share some of the new or irregularly available observations data that will likely be available on Wednesday including GOES-14 Super Rapid Scan 1-minute data, the NCEP “Fire Weather Nest” 1.33km high-res nest run model, MESO-SAILS nearly 1-minute radar data, and special upper air soundings.

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PDATE  

PACKAGE UPDATED TO REFLECT TORNADO WATCH NUMBER 20 IN  

EFFECT UNTIL 1000 PM CDT.  

 

WITH MU CAPES OF 1877 J/JG AND 0-3KM HELICITIES OF 322 M^2/S^2  

SHOWING ON THE 18Z SLIDELL SOUNDING...AN APPROACHING UPPER JET AND A  

ROUNDED 55KNT 850MB JET APPROACHING FROM THE WEST...THERE IS A CHANCE  

OF STRONGER AND LONGER TRACK TORNADOES MIXED IN WITH THE INCREASING  

COVERAGE OF SHRA AND THUNDERSTORMS CURRENTLY OVER THE LOWER  

MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY...SHIFTING EASTWARD AS THE AFTERNOON...THEN  

EVENING PROGRESSES.  

 

7680e85255c62386f360420aa45f84b0.png

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A "double-barrel" super cell(s) is rotation south of Baton Rouge.  Both are tornado warned with both:

 

 

SEVERE WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW ORLEANS LA
328 PM CST TUE FEB 23 2016

LAC005-007-047-093-232145-
/O.CON.KLIX.TO.W.0030.000000T0000Z-160223T2145Z/
ASSUMPTION LA-ST. JAMES LA-IBERVILLE LA-ASCENSION LA-
328 PM CST TUE FEB 23 2016

...A TORNADO WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 345 PM CST FOR NORTHERN
ASSUMPTION...NORTHERN ST. JAMES...SOUTHEASTERN IBERVILLE AND SOUTHERN
ASCENSION PARISHES...

AT 328 PM CST...A CONFIRMED LARGE AND EXTREMELY DANGEROUS TORNADO WAS
LOCATED OVER BELLE ROSE...OR NEAR DONALDSONVILLE...MOVING NORTHEAST
AT 55 MPH.

THIS IS A PARTICULARLY DANGEROUS SITUATION.

HAZARD...DAMAGING TORNADO.

SOURCE...RADAR CONFIRMED TORNADO.

IMPACT...YOU ARE IN A LIFE THREATENING SITUATION. FLYING DEBRIS MAY
BE DEADLY TO THOSE CAUGHT WITHOUT SHELTER. MOBILE HOMES
WILL BE DESTROYED. CONSIDERABLE DAMAGE TO
HOMES...BUSINESSES AND VEHICLES IS LIKELY AND COMPLETE
DESTRUCTION IS POSSIBLE.

THE TORNADO WILL BE NEAR...
CONVENT AROUND 340 PM CST.
GRAMERCY AND SORRENTO AROUND 345 PM CST.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

TO REPEAT...A LARGE...EXTREMELY DANGEROUS AND POTENTIALLY DEADLY
TORNADO IS ON THE GROUND. TO PROTECT YOUR LIFE...TAKE COVER NOW! MOVE
TO A BASEMENT OR AN INTERIOR ROOM ON THE LOWEST FLOOR OF A STURDY
BUILDING. AVOID WINDOWS. IF YOU ARE OUTDOORS...IN A MOBILE HOME...OR
IN A VEHICLE...MOVE TO THE CLOSEST SUBSTANTIAL SHELTER AND PROTECT
YOURSELF FROM FLYING DEBRIS.

IF A TORNADO OR OTHER SEVERE WEATHER IS SPOTTED...REPORT IT TO THE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OR YOUR LOCAL NEAREST LAW ENFORCEMENT AGENCY
WHO WILL SEND YOUR REPORT. THIS ACT MAY SAVE LIVES OF OTHERS IN THE
PATH OF DANGEROUS WEATHER.

&&

LAT...LON 3028 9081 3010 9065 3009 9067 3006 9067
2993 9116 3003 9122 3004 9122
TIME...MOT...LOC 2128Z 242DEG 46KT 3004 9102

TORNADO...OBSERVED
TORNADO DAMAGE THREAT...CONSIDERABLE
HAIL...<.75IN

$

MJH

 

 

 

TORNADO WARNING
LAC005-033-047-232145-
/O.NEW.KLIX.TO.W.0029.160223T2111Z-160223T2145Z/

BULLETIN - EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTED
TORNADO WARNING
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW ORLEANS LA
311 PM CST TUE FEB 23 2016

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN NEW ORLEANS HAS ISSUED A

* TORNADO WARNING FOR...
SOUTHEASTERN IBERVILLE PARISH IN SOUTHEASTERN LOUISIANA...
SOUTH CENTRAL EAST BATON ROUGE PARISH IN SOUTHEASTERN LOUISIANA...
NORTHWESTERN ASCENSION PARISH IN SOUTHEASTERN LOUISIANA...

* UNTIL 345 PM CST

* AT 310 PM CST...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM CAPABLE OF PRODUCING A
TORNADO WAS LOCATED NEAR WHITE CASTLE...OR 11 MILES SOUTH OF
PLAQUEMINE...MOVING NORTHEAST AT 50 MPH.

HAZARD...TORNADO.

SOURCE...RADAR INDICATED ROTATION.

IMPACT...FLYING DEBRIS WILL BE DANGEROUS TO THOSE CAUGHT WITHOUT
SHELTER. MOBILE HOMES WILL BE DAMAGED OR DESTROYED.
DAMAGE TO ROOFS...WINDOWS AND VEHICLES WILL OCCUR. TREE
DAMAGE IS LIKELY.

* THIS DANGEROUS STORM WILL BE NEAR...
WHITE CASTLE AND CARVILLE AROUND 320 PM CST.
GEISMER AROUND 325 PM CST.
GONZALES...PRAIRIEVILLE AND OLD JEFFERSON AROUND 335 PM CST.
SHENANDOAH AROUND 340 PM CST.
PORT VINCENT AROUND 345 PM CST.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

TAKE COVER NOW! MOVE TO A BASEMENT OR AN INTERIOR ROOM ON THE LOWEST
FLOOR OF A STURDY BUILDING. AVOID WINDOWS. IF YOU ARE OUTDOORS OR IN
A VEHICLE...MOVE TO THE CLOSEST SUBSTANTIAL SHELTER AND PROTECT
YOURSELF FROM FLYING DEBRIS.

HEAVY RAINFALL MAY HIDE THIS TORNADO. DO NOT WAIT TO SEE OR HEAR THE
TORNADO. TAKE COVER NOW.

TO REPORT SEVERE WEATHER CONTACT YOUR NEAREST LAW ENFORCEMENT AGENCY.
THEY WILL SEND YOUR REPORT TO THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OFFICE IN
NEW ORLEANS.

&&

LAT...LON 3044 9098 3044 9097 3042 9098 3041 9096
3039 9097 3039 9096 3040 9095 3037 9094
3036 9091 3035 9089 3034 9086 3032 9083
3028 9081 3028 9078 3026 9079 3004 9121
3011 9128
TIME...MOT...LOC 2110Z 227DEG 41KT 3012 9120

TORNADO...RADAR INDICATED
HAIL...<.75IN

$
 

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