Witness Protection Program Posted February 23, 2016 Share Posted February 23, 2016 Pretty Damn Serious watch issued. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Superstorm93 Posted February 23, 2016 Share Posted February 23, 2016 * EFFECTIVE THIS TUESDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING FROM 215 PM UNTIL 1000 PM CST. ...THIS IS A PARTICULARLY DANGEROUS SITUATION... * PRIMARY THREATS INCLUDE... SEVERAL TORNADOES AND A FEW INTENSE TORNADOES LIKELY SCATTERED DAMAGING WIND GUSTS TO 70 MPH LIKELY ISOLATED LARGE HAIL EVENTS TO 1 INCH IN DIAMETER POSSIBLE SUMMARY...THUNDERSTORMS WILL INCREASE IN COVERAGE AND INTENSITY THROUGH THE EVENING AS A STRONG STORM SYSTEM APPROACHES FROM THE WEST. THE STORM ENVIRONMENT WILL BECOME FAVORABLE FOR SUPERCELLS CAPABLE OF PRODUCING A FEW STRONG AND LONG-TRACK TORNADOES INTO EARLY TONIGHT. THE TORNADO WATCH AREA IS APPROXIMATELY ALONG AND 75 STATUTE MILES EAST AND WEST OF A LINE FROM 80 MILES EAST NORTHEAST OF PINE BELT MISSISSIPPI TO 35 MILES SOUTH SOUTHWEST OF GULFPORT MISSISSIPPI. FOR A COMPLETE DEPICTION OF THE WATCH SEE THE ASSOCIATED WATCH OUTLINE UPDATE (WOUS64 KWNS WOU0). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Superstorm93 Posted February 23, 2016 Share Posted February 23, 2016 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ClicheVortex2014 Posted February 23, 2016 Share Posted February 23, 2016 The shear here is forecast to be on a whole different level than either of those two days, to be fair. 90/80 tor probs on that PDS watch. You're right in that regard. SBCAPE is poised to be just as high or higher in this event, but 11/16 had a widespread area of 1000+ MLCAPE. Another plus for that event was how discrete those supercells were. It was ridiculous. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jojo762 Posted February 23, 2016 Share Posted February 23, 2016 That supercell off the SE coast of Louisiana will be interesting later on when it comes ashore (for the second time, first will be in SE LA). Probably in S AL or the FL Panhandle.Counting on it doesn't encounter any kind of deleterious interference. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ClicheVortex2014 Posted February 23, 2016 Share Posted February 23, 2016 Not sure my brain is tricking my eyes, but it seems like the cluster is starting to move in a more northerly direction. Am I seeing it right? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JasonOH Posted February 23, 2016 Share Posted February 23, 2016 Not sure my brain is tricking my eyes, but it seems like the cluster is starting to move in a more northerly direction. Am I seeing it right?I think you are right. It looks to stay north of the best area in the watch. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rolltide_130 Posted February 23, 2016 Author Share Posted February 23, 2016 Not sure my brain is tricking my eyes, but it seems like the cluster is starting to move in a more northerly direction. Am I seeing it right? Yep. IIRC it's expected to move north and eventually wrap around the low. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jojo762 Posted February 23, 2016 Share Posted February 23, 2016 Not sure my brain is tricking my eyes, but it seems like the cluster is starting to move in a more northerly direction. Am I seeing it right? There is definitely some individual cells/clusters inside of it that are. Hard to tell with the whole mass though. Seems to be making a curve? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ClicheVortex2014 Posted February 23, 2016 Share Posted February 23, 2016 I think you are right. It looks to stay north of the best area in the watch. I think that's exactly what SPC is seeing, and why they might go with high risk later. Doing a good job so far. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rolltide_130 Posted February 23, 2016 Author Share Posted February 23, 2016 Current temp/DP at Brownsville is 91/48. These readings from S TX can often indicate the approach of a capping inversion, especially tomorrow up into the Carolinas. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
southmdwatcher Posted February 23, 2016 Share Posted February 23, 2016 Current temp/DP at Brownsville is 91/48. These readings from S TX can often indicate the approach of a capping inversion, especially tomorrow up into the Carolinas. Also McAllen TX is 93/41 and Monterrey MX is 90/23 so the deep south TX observations are very important to how this 2 day event plays out, especially tomorrow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
janetjanet998 Posted February 23, 2016 Share Posted February 23, 2016 PDATE PACKAGE UPDATED TO REFLECT TORNADO WATCH NUMBER 20 IN EFFECT UNTIL 1000 PM CDT. WITH MU CAPES OF 1877 J/JG AND 0-3KM HELICITIES OF 322 M^2/S^2 SHOWING ON THE 18Z SLIDELL SOUNDING...AN APPROACHING UPPER JET AND A ROUNDED 55KNT 850MB JET APPROACHING FROM THE WEST...THERE IS A CHANCE OF STRONGER AND LONGER TRACK TORNADOES MIXED IN WITH THE INCREASING COVERAGE OF SHRA AND THUNDERSTORMS CURRENTLY OVER THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY...SHIFTING EASTWARD AS THE AFTERNOON...THEN EVENING PROGRESSES. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PackGrad05 Posted February 23, 2016 Share Posted February 23, 2016 Waiting on RAH AFD Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ClicheVortex2014 Posted February 23, 2016 Share Posted February 23, 2016 Things are evolving pretty "nice" for MOB's CWA and east. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NCHurricane Posted February 23, 2016 Share Posted February 23, 2016 Just saw this posted on Twitter (link: https://cimmse.wordpress.com/2016/02/23/observational-resources-for-the-potential-severe-weather-on-wednesday-24-february-2016/) Observational Resources for the Potential Severe Weather on Wednesday 24 February 2016 The latest Severe Weather Outlook from the SPC indicates an enhanced risk of severe weather on Wednesday, 24 February, across central and eastern NC with a slight risk across much of the mid and south-Atlantic with a region of significant severe weather possible in the NC Coastal Plain and the Eastern Piedmont. I thought it might be helpful to share some of the new or irregularly available observations data that will likely be available on Wednesday including GOES-14 Super Rapid Scan 1-minute data, the NCEP “Fire Weather Nest” 1.33km high-res nest run model, MESO-SAILS nearly 1-minute radar data, and special upper air soundings. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Superstorm93 Posted February 23, 2016 Share Posted February 23, 2016 PDATE PACKAGE UPDATED TO REFLECT TORNADO WATCH NUMBER 20 IN EFFECT UNTIL 1000 PM CDT. WITH MU CAPES OF 1877 J/JG AND 0-3KM HELICITIES OF 322 M^2/S^2 SHOWING ON THE 18Z SLIDELL SOUNDING...AN APPROACHING UPPER JET AND A ROUNDED 55KNT 850MB JET APPROACHING FROM THE WEST...THERE IS A CHANCE OF STRONGER AND LONGER TRACK TORNADOES MIXED IN WITH THE INCREASING COVERAGE OF SHRA AND THUNDERSTORMS CURRENTLY OVER THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY...SHIFTING EASTWARD AS THE AFTERNOON...THEN EVENING PROGRESSES. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ClicheVortex2014 Posted February 23, 2016 Share Posted February 23, 2016 Ah, there's everything starting to come together. Severe weather parameters are really starting to ramp up. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RevDodd Posted February 23, 2016 Share Posted February 23, 2016 Updated STP for tomorrow afternoon over the Sandhills looks impressive Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Superstorm93 Posted February 23, 2016 Share Posted February 23, 2016 Confirmed large and extremely dangerous Tornado Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
kayman Posted February 23, 2016 Share Posted February 23, 2016 A "double-barrel" super cell(s) is rotation south of Baton Rouge. Both are tornado warned with both: SEVERE WEATHER STATEMENTNATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW ORLEANS LA328 PM CST TUE FEB 23 2016LAC005-007-047-093-232145-/O.CON.KLIX.TO.W.0030.000000T0000Z-160223T2145Z/ASSUMPTION LA-ST. JAMES LA-IBERVILLE LA-ASCENSION LA-328 PM CST TUE FEB 23 2016...A TORNADO WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 345 PM CST FOR NORTHERNASSUMPTION...NORTHERN ST. JAMES...SOUTHEASTERN IBERVILLE AND SOUTHERNASCENSION PARISHES...AT 328 PM CST...A CONFIRMED LARGE AND EXTREMELY DANGEROUS TORNADO WASLOCATED OVER BELLE ROSE...OR NEAR DONALDSONVILLE...MOVING NORTHEASTAT 55 MPH.THIS IS A PARTICULARLY DANGEROUS SITUATION.HAZARD...DAMAGING TORNADO.SOURCE...RADAR CONFIRMED TORNADO.IMPACT...YOU ARE IN A LIFE THREATENING SITUATION. FLYING DEBRIS MAYBE DEADLY TO THOSE CAUGHT WITHOUT SHELTER. MOBILE HOMESWILL BE DESTROYED. CONSIDERABLE DAMAGE TOHOMES...BUSINESSES AND VEHICLES IS LIKELY AND COMPLETEDESTRUCTION IS POSSIBLE.THE TORNADO WILL BE NEAR...CONVENT AROUND 340 PM CST.GRAMERCY AND SORRENTO AROUND 345 PM CST.PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...TO REPEAT...A LARGE...EXTREMELY DANGEROUS AND POTENTIALLY DEADLYTORNADO IS ON THE GROUND. TO PROTECT YOUR LIFE...TAKE COVER NOW! MOVETO A BASEMENT OR AN INTERIOR ROOM ON THE LOWEST FLOOR OF A STURDYBUILDING. AVOID WINDOWS. IF YOU ARE OUTDOORS...IN A MOBILE HOME...ORIN A VEHICLE...MOVE TO THE CLOSEST SUBSTANTIAL SHELTER AND PROTECTYOURSELF FROM FLYING DEBRIS.IF A TORNADO OR OTHER SEVERE WEATHER IS SPOTTED...REPORT IT TO THENATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OR YOUR LOCAL NEAREST LAW ENFORCEMENT AGENCYWHO WILL SEND YOUR REPORT. THIS ACT MAY SAVE LIVES OF OTHERS IN THEPATH OF DANGEROUS WEATHER.&&LAT...LON 3028 9081 3010 9065 3009 9067 3006 90672993 9116 3003 9122 3004 9122TIME...MOT...LOC 2128Z 242DEG 46KT 3004 9102TORNADO...OBSERVEDTORNADO DAMAGE THREAT...CONSIDERABLEHAIL...<.75IN$MJH TORNADO WARNINGLAC005-033-047-232145-/O.NEW.KLIX.TO.W.0029.160223T2111Z-160223T2145Z/BULLETIN - EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTEDTORNADO WARNINGNATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW ORLEANS LA311 PM CST TUE FEB 23 2016THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN NEW ORLEANS HAS ISSUED A* TORNADO WARNING FOR...SOUTHEASTERN IBERVILLE PARISH IN SOUTHEASTERN LOUISIANA...SOUTH CENTRAL EAST BATON ROUGE PARISH IN SOUTHEASTERN LOUISIANA...NORTHWESTERN ASCENSION PARISH IN SOUTHEASTERN LOUISIANA...* UNTIL 345 PM CST* AT 310 PM CST...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM CAPABLE OF PRODUCING ATORNADO WAS LOCATED NEAR WHITE CASTLE...OR 11 MILES SOUTH OFPLAQUEMINE...MOVING NORTHEAST AT 50 MPH.HAZARD...TORNADO.SOURCE...RADAR INDICATED ROTATION.IMPACT...FLYING DEBRIS WILL BE DANGEROUS TO THOSE CAUGHT WITHOUTSHELTER. MOBILE HOMES WILL BE DAMAGED OR DESTROYED.DAMAGE TO ROOFS...WINDOWS AND VEHICLES WILL OCCUR. TREEDAMAGE IS LIKELY.* THIS DANGEROUS STORM WILL BE NEAR...WHITE CASTLE AND CARVILLE AROUND 320 PM CST.GEISMER AROUND 325 PM CST.GONZALES...PRAIRIEVILLE AND OLD JEFFERSON AROUND 335 PM CST.SHENANDOAH AROUND 340 PM CST.PORT VINCENT AROUND 345 PM CST.PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...TAKE COVER NOW! MOVE TO A BASEMENT OR AN INTERIOR ROOM ON THE LOWESTFLOOR OF A STURDY BUILDING. AVOID WINDOWS. IF YOU ARE OUTDOORS OR INA VEHICLE...MOVE TO THE CLOSEST SUBSTANTIAL SHELTER AND PROTECTYOURSELF FROM FLYING DEBRIS.HEAVY RAINFALL MAY HIDE THIS TORNADO. DO NOT WAIT TO SEE OR HEAR THETORNADO. TAKE COVER NOW.TO REPORT SEVERE WEATHER CONTACT YOUR NEAREST LAW ENFORCEMENT AGENCY.THEY WILL SEND YOUR REPORT TO THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OFFICE INNEW ORLEANS.&&LAT...LON 3044 9098 3044 9097 3042 9098 3041 90963039 9097 3039 9096 3040 9095 3037 90943036 9091 3035 9089 3034 9086 3032 90833028 9081 3028 9078 3026 9079 3004 91213011 9128TIME...MOT...LOC 2110Z 227DEG 41KT 3012 9120TORNADO...RADAR INDICATEDHAIL...<.75IN$ Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SmokeEater Posted February 23, 2016 Share Posted February 23, 2016 Cell in far SE LA is TW'd now too, looks on track for Mobile in a while. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
kayman Posted February 23, 2016 Share Posted February 23, 2016 Confirmed large and extremely dangerous Tornado Correct, the southern hook echo is much more potent and has a confirmed TDS. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Superstorm93 Posted February 23, 2016 Share Posted February 23, 2016 Already a strong TDS Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SmokeEater Posted February 23, 2016 Share Posted February 23, 2016 Confirmed large and extremely dangerous Tornado TDS with it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Superstorm93 Posted February 23, 2016 Share Posted February 23, 2016 Another about to come onshore Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NavarreDon Posted February 23, 2016 Share Posted February 23, 2016 And just like that after being cloudy all day, the wind has ramped up & the sun is peaking thru the clouds! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Superstorm93 Posted February 23, 2016 Share Posted February 23, 2016 Environment ramping up That cell is heading into a very favorable area Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PennyForYourThoughts Posted February 23, 2016 Share Posted February 23, 2016 NavarreDon still cloudy here in Pace, just to the east of P'cola but wind has picked up a little. Getting a bit nervous here..hope the worst stays North, not that I wish it on anyone. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ClicheVortex2014 Posted February 23, 2016 Share Posted February 23, 2016 All the storm chasers are set up very well for later. Just the waiting game for them Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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