Brick Tamland Posted February 23, 2016 Share Posted February 23, 2016 We'll see We're already seeing, and what we're seeing are a lot of tornado reports. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rolltide_130 Posted February 23, 2016 Author Share Posted February 23, 2016 TDS + significant couplet near Livingston. Possible significant tornado may have just moved through town. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Superstorm93 Posted February 23, 2016 Share Posted February 23, 2016 We'll see Large tornado on the ground with a TDS Sent from my SM-G925V using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Superstorm93 Posted February 23, 2016 Share Posted February 23, 2016 Lake P was an impressive waterspout Sent from my SM-G925V using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brick Tamland Posted February 23, 2016 Share Posted February 23, 2016 Might see a tornado live on this chase cam soon. http://www.severestudios.com/player/john.humphress/ Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
janetjanet998 Posted February 23, 2016 Share Posted February 23, 2016 EVERE WEATHER STATEMENT NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW ORLEANS LA 1248 PM CST TUE FEB 23 2016 LAC063-091-105-231915- /O.CON.KLIX.TO.W.0024.000000T0000Z-160223T1915Z/ TANGIPAHOA LA-LIVINGSTON LA-ST. HELENA LA- 1248 PM CST TUE FEB 23 2016 ...A TORNADO WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 115 PM CST FOR WEST CENTRAL TANGIPAHOA...NORTH CENTRAL LIVINGSTON AND SOUTHEASTERN ST. HELENA PARISHES... AT 1248 PM CST...A CONFIRMED LARGE AND EXTREMELY DANGEROUS TORNADO WAS LOCATED OVER LIVINGSTON...OR 14 MILES EAST OF DENHAM SPRINGS... MOVING NORTHEAST AT 30 MPH. THIS IS A PARTICULARLY DANGEROUS SITUATION. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherheels Posted February 23, 2016 Share Posted February 23, 2016 http://www.weather.gov/media/rah/briefing/NWSRaleighLatestBriefing.pdf Not sure if that's been posted or not, disregard if it has. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
downeastnc Posted February 23, 2016 Share Posted February 23, 2016 Sucks I am at work and not able to get on the pc much since the product I am running is a PITA..........so far it seems this is living up to expectations....excellent shot of the main tornado wit ha few sat vortexs over the lake..... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chinook Posted February 23, 2016 Share Posted February 23, 2016 possible tornado at Talisheek LA- this does not have a distinguishable TDS, but the velocity and reflectivity look strong Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
janetjanet998 Posted February 23, 2016 Share Posted February 23, 2016 05 PM TORNADO PRAIRIEVILLE 30.30N 90.97W 02/23/2016 ASCENSION LA PUBLIC SIGNIFICANT DAMAGE TO GOLDS GYM IN PRAIRIEVILLE. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ClicheVortex2014 Posted February 23, 2016 Share Posted February 23, 2016 possible tornado at Talisheek LA- this does not have a distinguishable TDS, but the velocity and reflectivity look strong By the velocity scan, I don't think there is... but it's a good call to continue the tornado warning because it does look like it could drop one Edit: ok next velocity scan tightened up Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ClicheVortex2014 Posted February 23, 2016 Share Posted February 23, 2016 That hook though Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
janetjanet998 Posted February 23, 2016 Share Posted February 23, 2016 19z: believe the storms over LA are the main show...they will move into Southern MS and AL this evening and in FL panhandle overnight..as time goes on ahead of them extreme shear with backed winds...with SBCAPE 750-1500 or so,,, WAA as the low level jet increases in the next few hours may mean more storms developing east of these in a WAA wing believe TOR probs will need to be raised a notch in the next update behind these more storms will develop but winds veer SW more linear stuff...unless winds can back some Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jojo762 Posted February 23, 2016 Share Posted February 23, 2016 Going to need a new WW east/northeast of the current one PDQ. Those two leading supercells are pretty isolated with nothing in front of them, should be quite a show. Usually am pretty skeptical about these setups when instability isn't that important, but obviously that isn't going to stop these things. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
thewxmann Posted February 23, 2016 Share Posted February 23, 2016 19z: believe the storms over LA are the main show...they will move into Southern MS and AL this evening and in FL panhandle overnight..as time goes on ahead of them extreme shear with backed winds...with SBCAPE 750-1500 or so,,, WAA as the low level jet increases in the next few hours may mean more storms developing east of these in a WAA wing believe TOR probs will need to be raised a notch in the next update behind these more storms will develop but winds veer SW more linear stuff...unless winds can back some If they did, then it'd be in high risk territory; I don't think SPC will be ready to do that just yet. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
janetjanet998 Posted February 23, 2016 Share Posted February 23, 2016 ESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0126 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0115 PM CST TUE FEB 23 2016 AREAS AFFECTED...PORTIONS OF CNTRL/SRN MS...SERN LA...SWRN/S-CNTRL AL...WRN FL PANHANDLE CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...TORNADO WATCH LIKELY VALID 231915Z - 232115Z PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...95 PERCENT SUMMARY...THE RISK FOR TORNADOES WILL BE FURTHER INCREASING DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF HOURS ACROSS PARTS OF SERN LA INTO CNTRL/SRN MS...WITH THE TORNADO RISK SPREADING INTO SWRN/S-CNTRL AL AND THE WRN FL PANHANDLE BY THIS EVENING. SIGNIFICANT TORNADOES WILL BE POSSIBLE. A NEW TORNADO WATCH WILL LIKELY BE ISSUED BY AROUND 21Z. DISCUSSION...STRONG LARGE-SCALE ASCENT REFLECTED BY 2-HOUR PRESSURE FALLS OF 2.0-3.5 MB ARE ANALYZED AHEAD OF A SFC LOW CENTERED N OF LUFKIN TX. A PLUME OF GULF MOISTURE CONTINUES TO STREAM NWD TO A WARM FRONT BRANCHING E/ENE OF THE LOW INTO THE ARKLAMISS REGION AND EWD...ASSOCIATED WITH DEWPOINTS IN THE MIDDLE AND UPPER 60S. POCKETS OF MODEST INSOLATION WILL CONTINUE TO FOSTER DESTABILIZATION S OF THIS BOUNDARY...WITH THE STRONGEST INSTABILITY /MLCAPE AROUND 500-1000 J PER KG SOUTH OF INTERSTATE 20/. MIXED-MODE CONVECTION -- INCLUDING TORNADIC SUPERCELLS -- CONTINUES EVOLVING ACROSS PARTS OF SRN LA...AS ADDRESSED IN RECENTLY ISSUED MCD 0125. THIS ACTIVITY WILL CONTINUE TO SPREAD NNEWD/NEWD THIS AFTERNOON AMIDST A DESTABILIZING BOUNDARY LAYER...EVENTUALLY EXTENDING N OF WW 19 PERHAPS AS EARLY AS 20-21Z. LATER...THE RISK FOR SVR CONVECTION INCLUDING TORNADOES WILL SPREAD EWD INTO PARTS OF SWRN AL AND THE FL PANHANDLE BY EVENING. LONG/CURVED HODOGRAPHS HAVE ALREADY BECOME FAVORABLE FOR TORNADIC SUPERCELLS ACROSS THE REGION...WITH LOW-LEVEL SRH POTENTIALLY EXCEEDING 500 M2/S2 FROM SERN MS AND POINTS EWD THIS EVENING AS H85 SLYS INCREASE TO 50-65 KT. SIGNIFICANT TORNADOES WILL BE POSSIBLE BY LATE AFTERNOON INTO THE EVENING -- ESPECIALLY FROM SERN MS INTO SWRN/S-CNTRL AL AND THE FL PANHANDLE. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ClicheVortex2014 Posted February 23, 2016 Share Posted February 23, 2016 19z: believe the storms over LA are the main show...they will move into Southern MS and AL this evening and in FL panhandle overnight..as time goes on ahead of them extreme shear with backed winds...with SBCAPE 750-1500 or so,,, WAA as the low level jet increases in the next few hours may mean more storms developing east of these in a WAA wing believe TOR probs will need to be raised a notch in the next update behind these more storms will develop but winds veer SW more linear stuff...unless winds can back some I don't get why you're saying those supercells will be the main show. This cluster is going to push northeast, and big storms will form everywhere around it. I think the biggest show will be with storms that form in the clearing near New Orleans as that clearing pushes northeast back into the States. I'm certainly no expert, but it seems this is usually the case. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
janetjanet998 Posted February 23, 2016 Share Posted February 23, 2016 I don't get why you're saying those supercells will be the main show. This cluster is going to push northeast, and big storms will form everywhere around it. I think the biggest show will be with storms that form in the clearing near New Orleans as that clearing pushes northeast back into the States. these current storms may disrupt inflow/moisture for anything back WNW .. ..they are a little ahead of schedule I have seen many times when this happens in otherwise great set ups Could be wrong time will tell Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted February 23, 2016 Share Posted February 23, 2016 15z SREFs SIGTOR Prob Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HillsdaleMIWeather Posted February 23, 2016 Share Posted February 23, 2016 PDS Tornado Watch inbound it seems Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ClicheVortex2014 Posted February 23, 2016 Share Posted February 23, 2016 these current storms may disrupt inflow/moisture for anything back WNW .. ..they are a little ahead of schedule I have seen many times when this happens in otherwise great set ups Could be wrong time will tell Well, yeah, anything west or north of that cluster is probably done... but anything east/south/northeast of it is fair game. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ClicheVortex2014 Posted February 23, 2016 Share Posted February 23, 2016 Over in the eastern half of the moderate risk, there's already 1000-1500 SBCAPE just waiting. I bet that cluster is going to lift north of that area (moderate risk) and nasty supercells will reign to its south (in the moderate risk). I don't think HRRR is handling that cluster very well. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Superstorm93 Posted February 23, 2016 Share Posted February 23, 2016 Clearing all the way up to Birmingham and backed winds Wouldn't be shocked if the 20z kept the Mod risk but upped the wording Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
janetjanet998 Posted February 23, 2016 Share Posted February 23, 2016 HIGH risk upgrade possible AY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0200 PM CST TUE FEB 23 2016 VALID 232000Z - 241200Z ...THERE IS A MDT RISK OF SVR TSTMS THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH TONIGHT FROM SE LA ACROSS SRN MS...SRN AL...THE FL PANHANDLE AND EXTREME SW GA... ..THERE IS AN ENH RISK OF SVR TSTMS SURROUNDING THE MDT RISK FROM WRN GA TO CENTRAL LA AND MS/AL/WRN GA... ..THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS SURROUNDING THE ENH RISK FROM EXTREME SE TX TO NRN MS/AL...MUCH OF GA...AND INTO N FL... ...THERE IS A MRGL RISK OF SVR TSTMS SURROUNDING THE SLGT RISK...FROM SE TX TO SRN TN TO THE GA/SC BORDER AND NE FL... ..SUMMARY SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS CAPABLE OF PRODUCING TORNADOES...DAMAGING WINDS...AND ISOLATED LARGE HAIL WILL BE LIKELY OVER PORTIONS OF THE GULF COAST STATES THROUGH TONIGHT. SEVERAL STRONG TORNADOES WILL BE POSSIBLE. THE ONLY NOTABLE CHANGE THIS OUTLOOK UPDATE IS TO REDUCE/REMOVE PROBABILITIES ON THE WRN AND NWRN PORTION OF THE SEVERE OUTLOOK ACROSS TX/LA/MS. CONFIDENCE IS RELATIVELY HIGH ON THE FORECAST EVOLUTION IN A MARKED INTENSIFICATION IN SHEAR PROFILES ACROSS FAR SERN MS AND EXTENDING ENEWD INTO SRN AL BY EARLY EVENING AND INTO THE OVERNIGHT. THIS WILL POTENTIALLY RESULT IN MORE FAVORABLE CONDITIONS FOR TORNADIC SUPERCELLS. CONVECTION-ALLOWING MODEL GUIDANCE --ESPECIALLY RECENT HRRR RUNS-- ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT IN SHOWING A CLUSTER OF SEMI-DISCRETE CELLS /I.E. SUPERCELLS/ DEVELOPING IN THE WARM SECTOR TRAVERSING ENEWD FROM SRN MS INTO SRN AL. HOWEVER...DETAILS CONCERNING THE EVOLUTION OF WARM SECTOR STORMS REMAIN UNCLEAR BUT AN UPGRADE TO HIGH RISK MAY BE WARRANTED AT A LATER OUTLOOK UPDATE FOR A SMALL PORTION OF THE MODERATE RISK /I.E. SRN AL/. ..SMITH.. 02/23/2016 PREV DISCUSSION /ISSUED 1030 AM CST TUE FEB 23 2016/ ..SYNOPSIS AN INTENSE SHORTWAVE TROUGH AND ASSOCIATED MID-UPPER JET STREAK WILL PROGRESS EWD OVER THE GULF COAST STATES THROUGH TONIGHT. STRONG ASCENT IN THE LEFT EXIT REGION OF THE JET WILL CONTRIBUTE TO STRONG CYCLOGENESIS FROM E TX THIS MORNING NEWD TO TN OVERNIGHT. IN RESPONSE TO THE DEEPENING CYCLONE...LOW-LEVEL SLY FLOW WILL INCREASE /ESPECIALLY TONIGHT/ AND THE WARM SECTOR WILL SPREAD INLAND...THOUGH THE N EDGE OF THE MORE UNSTABLE WARM SECTOR WILL BE MODULATED BY THE INFLUENCE OF CLOUDS/RAIN. ..LOWER MS VALLEY INTO GA/N FL THROUGH TONIGHT THE ONGOING RAIN/CONVECTION ACROSS LA IS A BIT FASTER THAN EARLIER FORECAST...AND IT APPEARS THE PRIMARY WARM SECTOR WILL ONLY BECOME ESTABLISHED FROM SE LA AND SRN MS EWD TODAY. STRENGTHENING OF LOW-LEVEL FLOW/SHEAR IS EXPECTED LATE THIS AFTERNOON INTO TONIGHT...WITH THE MORE FAVORABLE SUPERCELL PROFILES EXPECTED BEGINNING THIS EVENING ON THE E EDGE OF THE ONGOING CONVECTION...AND SPREADING EWD OVERNIGHT. THOUGH BUOYANCY WILL NOT BE PARTICULARLY LARGE INLAND...THE VERY STRONG LOW-LEVEL SHEAR /EFFECTIVE SRH 300-600 M2 PER S2/ AND STRONG DEEP-LAYER SHEAR WITH LARGE CROSS-BOUNDARY FLOW WILL PROMOTE PRE-FRONTAL CLUSTERS OF CELLS AND A BROKEN BAND OF STORMS ALONG THE COLD FRONT. SINCE THE WARM SECTOR WILL BE BETTER ESTABLISHED FARTHER E TODAY ACROSS SRN AL TO N FL...IT APPEARS LIKELY THAT CONVECTION WILL PERSIST AND MAINTAIN INTENSITY THROUGH EARLY WEDNESDAY. THE MORE INTENSE SUPERCELLS WILL BE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING STRONG TORNADOES THIS EVENING INTO TONIGHT...ALONG WITH DAMAGING WINDS. THE LARGE HAIL RISK WILL BE MORE CONFINED TO AREAS WITH STRONGER BUOYANCY AND SOMEWHAT STEEPER LAPSE RATES CLOSER TO THE COAST. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Superstorm93 Posted February 23, 2016 Share Posted February 23, 2016 ..SUMMARY SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS CAPABLE OF PRODUCING TORNADOES...DAMAGING WINDS...AND ISOLATED LARGE HAIL WILL BE LIKELY OVER PORTIONS OF THE GULF COAST STATES THROUGH TONIGHT. SEVERAL STRONG TORNADOES WILL BE POSSIBLE. THE ONLY NOTABLE CHANGE THIS OUTLOOK UPDATE IS TO REDUCE/REMOVE PROBABILITIES ON THE WRN AND NWRN PORTION OF THE SEVERE OUTLOOK ACROSS TX/LA/MS. CONFIDENCE IS RELATIVELY HIGH ON THE FORECAST EVOLUTION IN A MARKED INTENSIFICATION IN SHEAR PROFILES ACROSS FAR SERN MS AND EXTENDING ENEWD INTO SRN AL BY EARLY EVENING AND INTO THE OVERNIGHT. THIS WILL POTENTIALLY RESULT IN MORE FAVORABLE CONDITIONS FOR TORNADIC SUPERCELLS. CONVECTION-ALLOWING MODEL GUIDANCE --ESPECIALLY RECENT HRRR RUNS-- ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT IN SHOWING A CLUSTER OF SEMI-DISCRETE CELLS /I.E. SUPERCELLS/ DEVELOPING IN THE WARM SECTOR TRAVERSING ENEWD FROM SRN MS INTO SRN AL. HOWEVER...DETAILS CONCERNING THE EVOLUTION OF WARM SECTOR STORMS REMAIN UNCLEAR BUT AN UPGRADE TO HIGH RISK MAY BE WARRANTED AT A LATER OUTLOOK UPDATE FOR A SMALL PORTION OF THE MODERATE RISK /I.E. SRN AL/. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Superstorm93 Posted February 23, 2016 Share Posted February 23, 2016 The ECMWF Parallel has some nasty supercell tracks right in the same area as the NAM Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ClicheVortex2014 Posted February 23, 2016 Share Posted February 23, 2016 I'm really surprised they mentioned a possible upgrade to high risk. I feel the 11/16 and/or the 12/23 event was more worthy of a mention for an upgrade to high risk (though not quite worthy of actually being high risk). The former wasn't even a moderate risk somehow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HillsdaleMIWeather Posted February 23, 2016 Share Posted February 23, 2016 PDS Tornado Watch out. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
andyhb Posted February 23, 2016 Share Posted February 23, 2016 I'm really surprised they mentioned a possible upgrade to high risk. I feel the 11/16 and/or the 12/23 event was more worthy of a mention for an upgrade to high risk (though not quite worthy of actually being high risk). The former wasn't even a moderate risk somehow. The shear here is forecast to be on a whole different level than either of those two days, to be fair. 90/80 tor probs on that PDS watch. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ClicheVortex2014 Posted February 23, 2016 Share Posted February 23, 2016 PDS tornado watch is indeed coming. SPC via FB: SPC Lead Forecaster Rich Thompson has had a busy afternoon. Here are two photographs of him at work. The first shows him creating PDS Tornado Watch #20 and Tornado Watch #21. The second image shows him on a conference call with US National Weather Service Jackson Mississippi, US National Weather Service New Orleans Louisiana, and US National Weather Service Mobile Alabama. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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