Jump to content
  • Member Statistics

    17,609
    Total Members
    7,904
    Most Online
    NH8550
    Newest Member
    NH8550
    Joined

Severe Potential Feb 23-24


rolltide_130

Recommended Posts

  • Replies 1.1k
  • Created
  • Last Reply

Tornado Warning

TORNADO WARNING
LAC103-231830-
/O.NEW.KLIX.TO.W.0021.160223T1758Z-160223T1830Z/

BULLETIN - EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTED
TORNADO WARNING
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW ORLEANS LA
1158 AM CST TUE FEB 23 2016

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN NEW ORLEANS HAS ISSUED A

* TORNADO WARNING FOR...
WEST CENTRAL ST. TAMMANY PARISH IN SOUTHEASTERN LOUISIANA...

* UNTIL 1230 PM CST

* AT 1157 AM CST...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM CAPABLE OF PRODUCING A
TORNADO WAS LOCATED 9 MILES SOUTH OF MADISONVILLE...OR 14 MILES
SOUTH OF COVINGTON...MOVING NORTHEAST AT 25 MPH.

HAZARD...TORNADO.

SOURCE...RADAR INDICATED ROTATION. WATERSPOUT FEATURE SPOTTED ON
CAUSEWAY BRIDGE CAMERA.


IMPACT...FLYING DEBRIS WILL BE DANGEROUS TO THOSE CAUGHT WITHOUT
SHELTER. MOBILE HOMES WILL BE DAMAGED OR DESTROYED.
DAMAGE TO ROOFS...WINDOWS AND VEHICLES WILL OCCUR. TREE
DAMAGE IS LIKELY.

* LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE...
LACOMBE.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

TAKE COVER NOW! MOVE TO A BASEMENT OR AN INTERIOR ROOM ON THE LOWEST
FLOOR OF A STURDY BUILDING. AVOID WINDOWS. IF YOU ARE OUTDOORS...IN A
MOBILE HOME...OR IN A VEHICLE...MOVE TO THE CLOSEST SUBSTANTIAL
SHELTER AND PROTECT YOURSELF FROM FLYING DEBRIS.

IF ON OR NEAR NORTH LAKE PONCHARTRAIN...GET AWAY FROM THE WATER AND
MOVE TO SAFE SHELTER IMMEDIATELY. IF YOU CAN HEAR THUNDER...YOU ARE
CLOSE ENOUGH TO BE STRUCK BY LIGHTNING. SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS CAN
PRODUCE LARGE CAPSIZING WAVES...EVEN ON SMALL BODIES OF WATER. MOVE
INTO DOCK AND SEEK SAFE SHELTER NOW. DO NOT BE CAUGHT ON THE WATER
IN A THUNDERSTORM.

&&

LAT...LON 3044 8982 3029 8999 3032 9001 3032 9004
3035 9006 3037 9010 3037 9014 3046 9008
TIME...MOT...LOC 1757Z 206DEG 22KT 3026 9011

TORNADO...RADAR INDICATED
HAIL...<.75IN

$

Link to comment
Share on other sites

With how this has evolved as of 17Z it does not look like a tornado outbreak to me. Looking at both HIRES models and current radar observations, does not seem to be too much of a tornado threat. Going to be too messy. There might be a small window later this evening where the tornado threat might ramp up some, but that only matters if there are discrete/semi-discrete supercells when that window happens. Tomorrow in NC/SC looks better to me, but not by a ton.

 

EDIT: But with all that in mind... This main lead "supercell" might have some potential later on if it can develop some more, and stay out in front of that MCS mess thats propagating into LA.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

With how this has evolved as of 17Z it does not look like a tornado outbreak to me. Looking at both HIRES models and current radar observations, does not seem to be too much of a tornado threat. Going to be too messy. There might be a small window later this evening where the tornado threat might ramp up some, but that only matters if there are discrete/semi-discrete supercells when that window happens. Tomorrow in NC/SC looks better to me, but not by a ton.

EDIT: But with all that in mind... This main lead "supercell" might have some potential later on if it can develop some more, and stay out in front of that MCS mess thats propagating into LA.

This is setting up to be a significant tornado event with these discrete supercells ahead of the main convection.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

With how this has evolved as of 17Z it does not look like a tornado outbreak to me. Looking at both HIRES models and current radar observations, does not seem to be too much of a tornado threat. Going to be too messy. There might be a small window later this evening where the tornado threat might ramp up some, but that only matters if there are discrete/semi-discrete supercells when that window happens. Tomorrow in NC/SC looks better to me, but not by a ton.

 

EDIT: But with all that in mind... This main lead "supercell" might have some potential later on if it can develop some more, and stay out in front of that MCS mess thats propagating into LA.

 

Calling this before the main LLJ intensification/isallobaric backing near the surface even begins is not very wise, IMO.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

This is setting up to be a significant tornado event with these discrete supercells ahead of the main convection.

Going to need those two lead Supercells to develop quite a bit more. Some clearing out in S MS, and more so S AL... Just not too sure.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

I propose we are looking at two lifting boundaries today, the synoptic warm front into the Mid South and the more dangerous coastal front in the Deep South. Part of my reasoning is South pattern recognition. Also one can barely make it out in the latest HRRR charts. In addition a pre-frontal trough will be ahead of the cold front. We have plenty of boundaries to work with today and tonight.

 

If I were chasing Mississippi/Alabama today I would target the intersection of the prefrontal trough and coastal front. See New Orleans area action. HRRR has a beast going into northeast Mississippi near the triple point but I might favor south and east of that, more on the leading edge of storms. Rather than name a target by location, I call the other boundary intersection. Track the prefrontal trough and especially coastal front.

 

Storm motion will be seasonably fast with strong wind fields up to the mid-levels. Also 0-3 km CAPE will be more than adequate for this early season and nocturnal event. Mid South should have a nice shelfie show on the synoptic fronts, but I think the worst tornado risk is down in the Deep South overnight.

 

Wednesday Carolina tornado threat I would place on intersecting boundaries again. Jet stream level winds become stronger over the Carolinas, compared to Deep South Tuesday, but some veer back is noted upstairs. It may not interfere if the low to mid-levels drive things like in the Deep South tonight. Perhaps time of day will not matter either this set-up. ENH is good for now Carolinas. MDT would depend on morning mesoscale details.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Not sure what hi res models some have been looking at, but the para HRRR and HRRR both look pretty nasty and extend the threat for discrete cells pretty far north into AL

We'll see how things play out, but if that LLJ verifies on the HRRR, then things will get out of hand quickly.

f144c08a58fc9b3d180e20cb9b568ff6.jpg

Sent from my SM-G925V using Tapatalk

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Going to need those two lead Supercells to develop quite a bit more. Some clearing out in S MS, and more so S AL... Just not too sure.

It's 12:30pm local time. Way too early man. Especially when most of the nasty stuff is supposed to happen after dark. Says everything that we're already getting TOG.

Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk

Link to comment
Share on other sites

LAC063-231845-

/O.CON.KLIX.TO.W.0022.000000T0000Z-160223T1845Z/

LIVINGSTON LA-

1224 PM CST TUE FEB 23 2016

 

...A TORNADO WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 1245 PM CST FOR

NORTHWESTERN LIVINGSTON PARISH...

    

AT 1223 PM CST...A CONFIRMED TORNADO WAS LOCATED NEAR PORT VINCENT...

OR 8 MILES SOUTHEAST OF DENHAM SPRINGS...MOVING NORTHEAST AT 25 MPH.

 

HAZARD...DAMAGING TORNADO. 

 

SOURCE...MULTIPLE WEATHER SPOTTERS CONFIRMED TORNADO.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

SPC basically says... "tornadoes now? It's only going to get more favorable"

 

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0125
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1225 PM CST TUE FEB 23 2016

AREAS AFFECTED...PORTIONS OF SERN LA AND SERN MS

CONCERNING...TORNADO WATCH 19...

VALID 231825Z - 231930Z

THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT FOR TORNADO WATCH 19 CONTINUES.

SUMMARY...THE RISK FOR SVR TSTMS/TORNADOES CONTINUES ACROSS WW 19.

DISCUSSION...LIX VWP DATA DURING THE PAST COUPLE OF HOURS INDICATE
STRENGTHENING LOW-LEVEL SHEAR IN ASSOCIATION WITH SFC PRESSURE FALLS
ON THE ORDER OF 2.0-3.5-MB PER 2 HOURS ANALYZED ACROSS MUCH OF LA.
THE HODOGRAPH FROM THE 18Z LIX RAOB IMPLIES AMPLE STREAMWISE
VORTICITY IN THE BOUNDARY LAYER ASSOCIATED WITH RIGHT-MOVING
SUPERCELLS...WITH 0-1-KM SRH AROUND 200 M2/S2. WITH FURTHER INLAND
FLUXES OF GULF MOISTURE CHARACTERIZED BY MID/UPPER 60S DEWPOINTS
/DEWPOINTS AROUND 65F EXTENDING AS FAR N AS MCB/...DESTABILIZATION
WILL CONTINUE IN AREAS WHERE CONVECTIVE OVERTURNING IS NOT AS
ROBUST -- PARTICULARLY IN PARTS OF SERN LA. MEANWHILE...MIXED
CONVECTIVE MODES INCLUDING SUPERCELL CLUSTERS AND A FEW
DISCRETE/SEMI-DISCRETE SUPERCELLS CONTINUE DEVELOPING NNEWD/NEWD
ACROSS SRN LA...AND WILL CONTINUE TO DO SO DURING THE EARLY
AFTERNOON -- EVENTUALLY EXTENDING INTO MS. SUSTAINED MODEST
LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATIONS PRODUCING TORNADOES HAVE ALREADY
OCCURRED...AND ADDITIONAL TORNADOES WILL BE POSSIBLE AS LOW-LEVEL
SHEAR FURTHER INCREASES.

 

Link to comment
Share on other sites

We'll see :whistle:

 

This is a very serious situation and saying this is a bust before it happens WHILE TORNADOES ARE CURRENTLY TOUCHING DOWN is not very bright. This situation will get worse before it gets better. Looking at radar right now these are some nasty storms and just because it is not effecting your area doesn't mean someone else is in the clear in these areas currently under warnings. I am all for calling busts on snow storms but with storms like this it is a real time thing and people will be in a ton of danger. I am actually a little worried about my area tomorrow around the ILM area and MYB area.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Archived

This topic is now archived and is closed to further replies.

  • Recently Browsing   0 members

    • No registered users viewing this page.

×
×
  • Create New...