Severe Potential Feb 23-24

[shaggy]

If we do have an outbreak tomorrow it will be interesting to see later this year if we have any hurricanes. The thread me and downeast had about spring tornados and later hurricanes would be something to follow this year.

[NavarreDon]

Here we go:

 

Tornado Warning

TORNADO WARNINGTXC025-391-409-231345-/O.NEW.KCRP.TO.W.0001.160223T1258Z-160223T1345Z/BULLETIN - EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTEDTORNADO WARNINGNATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CORPUS CHRISTI TX658 AM CST TUE FEB 23 2016THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN CORPUS CHRISTI  HAS ISSUED A* TORNADO WARNING FOR...  NORTH CENTRAL SAN PATRICIO COUNTY IN SOUTHERN TEXAS...  SOUTHEASTERN BEE COUNTY IN SOUTHERN TEXAS...  SOUTHWESTERN REFUGIO COUNTY IN SOUTHERN TEXAS...* UNTIL 745 AM CST* AT 657 AM CST...A THUNDERSTORM CAPABLE OF PRODUCING A TORNADO WAS  LOCATED ABOUT 5 MILES NORTHWEST OF SKIDMORE...MOVING SOUTHEAST AT  40 MPH.  HAZARD...TORNADO.  SOURCE...RADAR INDICATED ROTATION.  IMPACT...FLYING DEBRIS WILL BE DANGEROUS TO THOSE CAUGHT WITHOUT           SHELTER. MOBILE HOMES WILL BE DAMAGED OR DESTROYED.           DAMAGE TO ROOFS...WINDOWS...AND VEHICLES WILL OCCUR.  TREE           DAMAGE IS LIKELY.* THIS DANGEROUS STORM WILL BE NEAR...  ST. PAUL AROUND 710 AM CST.PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...TAKE COVER NOW! MOVE TO A BASEMENT OR AN INTERIOR ROOM ON THE LOWESTFLOOR OF A STURDY BUILDING. AVOID WINDOWS. IF YOU ARE OUTDOORS...IN AMOBILE HOME...OR IN A VEHICLE...MOVE TO THE CLOSEST SUBSTANTIAL SHELTERAND PROTECT YOURSELF FROM FLYING DEBRIS.THIS CLUSTER OF THUNDERSTORMS IS CAPABLE OF PRODUCING TORNADOES ANDWIDESPREAD SIGNIFICANT WIND DAMAGE. DO NOT WAIT TO SEE OR HEAR THETORNADO. FOR YOUR PROTECTION MOVE TO AN INTERIOR ROOM ON THE LOWESTFLOOR OF A BUILDING.&&LAT...LON 2829 9778 2842 9763 2818 9743 2800 9766TIME...MOT...LOC 1257Z 331DEG 68KT 2827 9767TORNADO...RADAR INDICATEDHAIL...<.75IN

[downeastnc]

MHX discussion from overnight

 

MODELS HAVE BEEN CONSISTENT IN DEVELOPING THIS INTENSE SYSTEM. THE
TIMING IS A BIT OFF WITH THE EURO SLIGHTLY SLOWER AS COMPARED TO THE
OTHER MODEL SOLUTIONS. BUT EITHER WAY...CONFIDENCE IS BUILDING THAT
THUNDERSTORMS WILL DEVELOP...SOME OF WHICH MAY BECOME SEVERE. GIVEN
SUFFICIENT INSTABILITY (1000-1500J/KG) BETWEEN EARLY AFTERNOON AND
EVENING...DECENT MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES...IMPRESSIVE BULK SHEAR NOT
ONLY WITHIN THE LOWEST LEVELS BUT WITHIN 0-6KM...STRONG DIVERGENCE
ALOFT WITHIN THE LEFT EXIT REGION OF THE JET...SRH VALUES ABOVE 400
M2/S2 AND INCREASING DEW POINTS INTO THE MID 60S...THESE INGREDIENTS
WILL RAISE CONCERN FOR SEVERE WEATHER DEVELOPMENT ACROSS EASTERN NC.
WE ANTICIPATE THE MAIN THREATS WILL BE DAMAGING STRAIGHTLINE WINDS
AND ISOLATED TORNADOES. AS MOISTURE TRANSPORT SURGES ACROSS THE AREA
WITH PWAT VALUES INCREASING TO NEAR 1.5" AND AMPLE FORCING FOR
ASCENT AHEAD OF THE FRONT...FEEL HEAVY RAIN WILL ALSO BE A
THREAT...ESPECIALLY WITH TRAINING CELLS/RAIN BANDS MOVING PARALLEL
TO THE STEERING FLOW. EXPECT 1-1.5" OF RAIN...LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS
POSSIBLE.  WITH SOILS ALREADY SATURATED QUICK PONDING ON ROADWAYS
AND MINOR FLOODING OF POOR DRAINAGE AREAS CAN NOT BE RULED OUT.  THE
TIMING OF THESE THREATS WILL BE MAINLY CENTERED BETWEEN 18Z-03Z...AS
THE INDICES MAX OUT WELL AHEAD OF THE SFC FRONT.

WHILE CONFIDENCE IS BUILDING ON THE POTENTIAL FOR DAMAGING
STORMS...SOME BECOMING SEVERE...THERE ARE FACTORS THAT MUST COME
TOGETHER TO MAKE THIS A REALITY.  THE TIMING OF THE FRONT AND
SUBSEQUENT LIFT/DYNAMICS COUPLED WITH DESTABILIZATION AT THE SFC
ARE THE MOST IMPORTANT INGREDIENTS. WITH SPC NOW HIGHLIGHTING MUCH
OF EASTERN NC IN ENHANCED RISK OF SVR THUNDERSTORMS...PLEASE
CONTINUE TO MONITOR THE FORECAST AS WEATHER CONDITIONS COULD
BECOME DANGEROUS WED AFTERNOON INTO THE EVENING.

TEMPERATURES WILL SURGE INTO THE LOWER 70S INLAND (IF NOT HIGHER) TO
MID 60S ALONG THE OBX. THE PRECIPITATION ACTIVITY SHOULD MOVE OUT TO
SEA AFTER 08Z OR SO WITH THE FRONT TRAILING WELL BEHIND. LOWS WILL
DROP TO AROUND 50 ARE WIDE.

[NavarreDon]

Looks like a tick north with the risk area:

 

 SPC AC 231300   DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK     NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK   0700 AM CST TUE FEB 23 2016   VALID 231300Z - 241200Z   ...THERE IS A MDT RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS PARTS OF SOUTHEAST   LOUISIANA...SOUTHERN MISSISSIPPI...SOUTHERN ALABAMA...AND A SMALL   PORTION OF THE WESTERN FLORIDA PANHANDLE...   ...THERE IS AN ENH RISK OF SVR TSTMS FROM THE LOWER SABINE RIVER   VALLEY EAST AND NORTHEAST ACROSS THE CENTRAL GULF COASTAL REGION...   ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS FROM SOUTHEAST TX EWD TO GA AND   THE FL PANHANDLE...   ...THERE IS A MRGL RISK OF SVR TSTMS SURROUNDING THE SLIGHT RISK   AREA AND EXTENDING AS FAR N AS SRN TN...   ...SUMMARY...   SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS CAPABLE OF DAMAGING WINDS AND TORNADOES WILL BE   LIKELY OVER PORTIONS OF THE GULF COAST STATES TUESDAY.  A FEW OF THE   TORNADOES MAY BE STRONG...ESPECIALLY TUESDAY AFTERNOON AND INTO   TUESDAY NIGHT.   ...SYNOPSIS...   WHILE THE UPPER PATTERN WILL CONTINUE TO FEATURE A RIDGE OVER THE   WRN U.S. AND A LARGE TROUGH AFFECTING THE CENTRAL AND ERN   CONUS...RAPID INTENSIFICATION OF AN UPPER LOW IS PROGGED OVER THE S   CENTRAL STATES.  THE INTENSIFICATION WILL OCCUR AS A 100 KT   MID-LEVEL JET NOSING ACROSS SRN TX ATTM WILL ROTATE EWD AND LATER   NEWD ACROSS THE NWRN GULF AND INTO THE CENTRAL GULF COASTAL REGION   BY THE END OF THE PERIOD.  AN ASSOCIATED MID-LEVEL CLOSED LOW --   PROGGED TO BE DEVELOPING INVOF THE ARKLATEX BY SUNSET -- SHOULD   DEEPEN RAPIDLY AFTER SUNSET WHILE SHIFTING NEWD TO A POSITION INVOF   WRN TX BY 24/12Z.   AT THE SURFACE...A WEAK LOW INVOF THE TX HILL COUNTRY ATTM IS   PROGGED TO STEADILY STRENGTHEN...MOVING NEWD ACROSS SERN TX AND THE   SABINE RIVER VALLEY THROUGH THE AFTERNOON AND THEN CONTINUING ACROSS   NRN LA/NRN MS AND REACHING THE MIDDLE TN VICINITY BY THE END OF THE   PERIOD.  A LARGE WARM SECTOR DEVELOPING AHEAD OF THIS SYSTEM ACROSS   THE GULF COAST STATES WILL SUPPORT WIDESPREAD CONVECTION AND   SUBSTANTIAL RISK FOR SEVERE STORMS THROUGH THE PERIOD.    ...GULF COASTAL STATES...   WIDESPREAD CONVECTION -- REMNANTS OF AN OVERNIGHT SEVERE WEATHER   EVENT -- CONTINUES SHIFTING ACROSS THE TX COASTAL PLAIN ATTM...WITH   SUBSTANTIAL ASSOCIATED/STRATIFORM PRECIPITATION NOW COVERING E TX   AND EXTENDING TO THE SABINE RIVER VALLEY.  AS A RESULT OF THIS   WIDESPREAD PRECIPITATION...ADJUSTMENTS TO WRN PORTIONS OF THE   OUTLOOK HAVE BEEN MADE TO REFLECT THE DIMINISHED SEVERE WEATHER RISK   IN THIS AREA.     AS SURFACE LOW PRESSURE DEEPENS ACROSS TX AND SHIFTS NEWD THROUGH   THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING ALONG A RETREATING WSW-ENE BAROCLINIC   ZONE FROM SERN TX INTO LA AND EVENTUALLY MS...GRADUAL -- THOUGH   TEMPERED -- DESTABILIZATION OF THE WARM SECTOR WILL OCCUR.  VERY   STRONG ASCENT -- ATTEMPTING TO BALANCE AN INCREASINGLY   OUT-OF-BALANCE ATMOSPHERE -- WILL LIKELY YIELD WIDESPREAD CONVECTIVE   DEVELOPMENT...WHICH WILL SHIFT EWD/NEWD ACROSS THE GULF COAST STATES   THROUGH THE PERIOD.  WHILE THE WIDESPREAD PRECIPITATION -- AND   ASSOCIATED WEAK LAPSE RATES/LIMITED INSTABILITY -- WILL BE A   NEGATIVE FACTOR...THE STRENGTH OF THE DEVELOPING SYSTEM WILL OFFSET   THE LACK OF BUOYANCY...AS VERY STRONG FLOW ALOFT SPREADS ACROSS THE   REGION.  WHILE LIMITED THROUGH MUCH OF THE MORNING...A STEADY UPTICK   IN SEVERE RISK IS EXPECTED THROUGH THE AFTERNOON...AND CONTINUING   THROUGH THE EVENING AND INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS.  WITH BOTH   DEEP-LAYER AND LOW-LEVEL SHEAR BECOMING INCREASINGLY SUPPORTIVE OF   SUPERCELLS AND LOW-LEVEL ROTATION...STORMS CAPABLE OF PRODUCING BOTH   DAMAGING WINDS AND TORNADOES ARE EXPECTED.  WHILE MIXED STORM MODES   ARE ANTICIPATED -- PARTICULARLY LATER IN THE PERIOD...SOME CELLULAR   ORGANIZATION WILL LIKELY BE MAINTAINED THROUGH MUCH OR ALL OF THE   PERIOD.  THE STRONGEST OF THESE SUPERCELL STORMS WILL BE CAPABLE OF   PRODUCING STRONG TORNADOES...IN ADDITION TO DAMAGING WINDS AND SOME   HAIL.  A FEW TORNADOES WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE WITH MORE LINEAR/BOWING   SEGMENTS THAT EVOLVE WITH TIME ACROSS THIS REGION.   ONE OTHER ADJUSTMENT TO THE OUTLOOK THIS UPDATE HAS BEEN TO EXPAND   HIGHER PROBABILITIES NWD AND NWWD ACROSS PARTS OF MS/CENTRAL AND NRN   AL...INCLUDING THE EXTENSION OF 2% TORNADO PROBABILITY INTO SRN TN.    WHILE THE NRN LIMITS OF THE RISK ARE DIFFICULT TO DETERMINE GIVEN   QUESTIONS REGARDING BOUNDARY-LAYER DESTABILIZATION -- PARTICULARLY   WHAT IS LIKELY TO BE WIDESPREAD ANTECEDENT PRECIPITATION...STRONG   SHEAR SPREADING ACROSS NRN MS/NRN AL AND INTO MIDDLE TN LATE IN THE   PERIOD JUST AHEAD OF THE DEEPENING SURFACE LOW SUGGESTS THAT AT   LEAST SOME SEVERE RISK MAY EXTEND N OF PRIOR EXPECTATIONS.

[SmokeEater]

Looks like a tick north with the risk area:

 SPC AC 231300

   DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK  
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0700 AM CST TUE FEB 23 2016

   VALID 231300Z - 241200Z

   ...THERE IS A MDT RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS PARTS OF SOUTHEAST
   LOUISIANA...SOUTHERN MISSISSIPPI...SOUTHERN ALABAMA...AND A SMALL
   PORTION OF THE WESTERN FLORIDA PANHANDLE...

   ...THERE IS AN ENH RISK OF SVR TSTMS FROM THE LOWER SABINE RIVER
   VALLEY EAST AND NORTHEAST ACROSS THE CENTRAL GULF COASTAL REGION...

   ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS FROM SOUTHEAST TX EWD TO GA AND
   THE FL PANHANDLE...

   ...THERE IS A MRGL RISK OF SVR TSTMS SURROUNDING THE SLIGHT RISK
   AREA AND EXTENDING AS FAR N AS SRN TN...

   ...SUMMARY...
   SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS CAPABLE OF DAMAGING WINDS AND TORNADOES WILL BE
   LIKELY OVER PORTIONS OF THE GULF COAST STATES TUESDAY.  A FEW OF THE
   TORNADOES MAY BE STRONG...ESPECIALLY TUESDAY AFTERNOON AND INTO
   TUESDAY NIGHT.

   ...SYNOPSIS...
   WHILE THE UPPER PATTERN WILL CONTINUE TO FEATURE A RIDGE OVER THE
   WRN U.S. AND A LARGE TROUGH AFFECTING THE CENTRAL AND ERN
   CONUS...RAPID INTENSIFICATION OF AN UPPER LOW IS PROGGED OVER THE S
   CENTRAL STATES.  THE INTENSIFICATION WILL OCCUR AS A 100 KT
   MID-LEVEL JET NOSING ACROSS SRN TX ATTM WILL ROTATE EWD AND LATER
   NEWD ACROSS THE NWRN GULF AND INTO THE CENTRAL GULF COASTAL REGION
   BY THE END OF THE PERIOD.  AN ASSOCIATED MID-LEVEL CLOSED LOW --
   PROGGED TO BE DEVELOPING INVOF THE ARKLATEX BY SUNSET -- SHOULD
   DEEPEN RAPIDLY AFTER SUNSET WHILE SHIFTING NEWD TO A POSITION INVOF
   WRN TX BY 24/12Z.

   AT THE SURFACE...A WEAK LOW INVOF THE TX HILL COUNTRY ATTM IS
   PROGGED TO STEADILY STRENGTHEN...MOVING NEWD ACROSS SERN TX AND THE
   SABINE RIVER VALLEY THROUGH THE AFTERNOON AND THEN CONTINUING ACROSS
   NRN LA/NRN MS AND REACHING THE MIDDLE TN VICINITY BY THE END OF THE
   PERIOD.  A LARGE WARM SECTOR DEVELOPING AHEAD OF THIS SYSTEM ACROSS
   THE GULF COAST STATES WILL SUPPORT WIDESPREAD CONVECTION AND
   SUBSTANTIAL RISK FOR SEVERE STORMS THROUGH THE PERIOD. 

   ...GULF COASTAL STATES...
   WIDESPREAD CONVECTION -- REMNANTS OF AN OVERNIGHT SEVERE WEATHER
   EVENT -- CONTINUES SHIFTING ACROSS THE TX COASTAL PLAIN ATTM...WITH
   SUBSTANTIAL ASSOCIATED/STRATIFORM PRECIPITATION NOW COVERING E TX
   AND EXTENDING TO THE SABINE RIVER VALLEY.  AS A RESULT OF THIS
   WIDESPREAD PRECIPITATION...ADJUSTMENTS TO WRN PORTIONS OF THE
   OUTLOOK HAVE BEEN MADE TO REFLECT THE DIMINISHED SEVERE WEATHER RISK
   IN THIS AREA.  

   AS SURFACE LOW PRESSURE DEEPENS ACROSS TX AND SHIFTS NEWD THROUGH
   THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING ALONG A RETREATING WSW-ENE BAROCLINIC
   ZONE FROM SERN TX INTO LA AND EVENTUALLY MS...GRADUAL -- THOUGH
   TEMPERED -- DESTABILIZATION OF THE WARM SECTOR WILL OCCUR.  VERY
   STRONG ASCENT -- ATTEMPTING TO BALANCE AN INCREASINGLY
   OUT-OF-BALANCE ATMOSPHERE -- WILL LIKELY YIELD WIDESPREAD CONVECTIVE
   DEVELOPMENT...WHICH WILL SHIFT EWD/NEWD ACROSS THE GULF COAST STATES
   THROUGH THE PERIOD.  WHILE THE WIDESPREAD PRECIPITATION -- AND
   ASSOCIATED WEAK LAPSE RATES/LIMITED INSTABILITY -- WILL BE A
   NEGATIVE FACTOR...THE STRENGTH OF THE DEVELOPING SYSTEM WILL OFFSET
   THE LACK OF BUOYANCY...AS VERY STRONG FLOW ALOFT SPREADS ACROSS THE
   REGION.  WHILE LIMITED THROUGH MUCH OF THE MORNING...A STEADY UPTICK
   IN SEVERE RISK IS EXPECTED THROUGH THE AFTERNOON...AND CONTINUING
   THROUGH THE EVENING AND INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS.  WITH BOTH
   DEEP-LAYER AND LOW-LEVEL SHEAR BECOMING INCREASINGLY SUPPORTIVE OF
   SUPERCELLS AND LOW-LEVEL ROTATION...STORMS CAPABLE OF PRODUCING BOTH
   DAMAGING WINDS AND TORNADOES ARE EXPECTED.  WHILE MIXED STORM MODES
   ARE ANTICIPATED -- PARTICULARLY LATER IN THE PERIOD...SOME CELLULAR
   ORGANIZATION WILL LIKELY BE MAINTAINED THROUGH MUCH OR ALL OF THE
   PERIOD.  THE STRONGEST OF THESE SUPERCELL STORMS WILL BE CAPABLE OF
   PRODUCING STRONG TORNADOES...IN ADDITION TO DAMAGING WINDS AND SOME
   HAIL.  A FEW TORNADOES WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE WITH MORE LINEAR/BOWING
   SEGMENTS THAT EVOLVE WITH TIME ACROSS THIS REGION.

   ONE OTHER ADJUSTMENT TO THE OUTLOOK THIS UPDATE HAS BEEN TO EXPAND
   HIGHER PROBABILITIES NWD AND NWWD ACROSS PARTS OF MS/CENTRAL AND NRN
   AL...INCLUDING THE EXTENSION OF 2% TORNADO PROBABILITY INTO SRN TN. 
   WHILE THE NRN LIMITS OF THE RISK ARE DIFFICULT TO DETERMINE GIVEN
   QUESTIONS REGARDING BOUNDARY-LAYER DESTABILIZATION -- PARTICULARLY
   WHAT IS LIKELY TO BE WIDESPREAD ANTECEDENT PRECIPITATION...STRONG
   SHEAR SPREADING ACROSS NRN MS/NRN AL AND INTO MIDDLE TN LATE IN THE
   PERIOD JUST AHEAD OF THE DEEPENING SURFACE LOW SUGGESTS THAT AT
   LEAST SOME SEVERE RISK MAY EXTEND N OF PRIOR EXPECTATIONS.

That's a pretty good tick north, brings Montgomery, AL, and damn near Tuscaloosa and Birmingham in the moderate area.

[RevDodd]

Smaller enhanced than I was anticipating

Probably due to timing. If Euro's slower timing wins out, then more areas will see higher temps and conditions for severe storms.

[kayman]

The current conditions in New Orleans (downtown) is partly sunny with surface temperature pushing 70 degrees with the dewpoint in the mid-60s.  This is not good sign at all if their dewpoint is already 64 degrees and the sun is breaking out and heating things up rapidly.

[Disc]

Southern AL seeing some broken clouds and peeks of sun. Surface temps in the mid-60s.

 

[Brick Tamland]

Probably due to timing. If Euro's slower timing wins out, then more areas will see higher temps and conditions for severe storms.

 

Hope the clouds we have today linger into tomorrow and limit the instability.

[Solak]

FWIW - Dr. Forbes 'TorCon' index for today

[Brick Tamland]

Whatever happens, I'm just happy that the greatest threat for the piedmont area is during the morning/early afternoon. School will be in session so if the worst happens me and other kids/teens will be safe.

 

I was actually thinking the opposite. I'd rather have the kids at home with me. And folks will be at work and could be caught off-guard.

[jojo762]

I'm not liking this setup very much really. Seems like it will be WAY too messy. Or am I off base with that thinking?

[JasonOH]

I'm not liking this setup very much really. Seems like it will be WAY too messy. Or am I off base with that thinking?

I don't think you are wrong at all. The thing that I see if that the MCS has slowed down and looks to stay out of the moderate risk area. I do think that this will get messy, but there should be at least a supercell or two that will go crazy.

[ClicheVortex2014]

You got a point but let's just be happy that it's not a late afternoon/evening event like these storms usually are. It would be terrible if a tornado were to touch down after dark.

Looks like this event will go after dark though. The models suggest this risk, and Dr. Forbes seems to agree.

[Snowless in Carrollton]

That enhanced risk area is only like 15 miles from me. I have a feeling I may not be getting much sleep tonight. My house was destroyed by a tornado almost exactly 8 years ago on 2-26-08 at night.

[Brick Tamland]

[ClicheVortex2014]

They expanded the moderate risk further east

 

DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK 
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1030 AM CST TUE FEB 23 2016

VALID 231630Z - 241200Z

...THERE IS A MDT RISK OF SVR TSTMS THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH TONIGHT
FROM SE LA ACROSS SRN MS...SRN AL...THE FL PANHANDLE AND EXTREME SW
GA...

...THERE IS AN ENH RISK OF SVR TSTMS SURROUNDING THE MDT RISK...FROM
WRN GA TO CENTRAL LA AND MS/AL/WRN GA...

...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS SURROUNDING THE ENH RISK...FROM
EXTREME SE TX TO NRN MS/AL...MUCH OF GA...AND INTO N FL...

...THERE IS A MRGL RISK OF SVR TSTMS SURROUNDING THE SLGT
RISK...FROM SE TX TO SRN TN TO THE GA/SC BORDER AND NE FL...

...SUMMARY...
SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS CAPABLE OF PRODUCING TORNADOES...DAMAGING
WINDS...AND ISOLATED LARGE HAIL WILL BE LIKELY OVER PORTIONS OF THE
GULF COAST STATES THROUGH TONIGHT. A FEW STRONG TORNADOES WILL BE
POSSIBLE.

...SYNOPSIS...
AN INTENSE SHORTWAVE TROUGH AND ASSOCIATED MID-UPPER JET STREAK WILL
PROGRESS EWD OVER THE GULF COAST STATES THROUGH TONIGHT. STRONG
ASCENT IN THE LEFT EXIT REGION OF THE JET WILL CONTRIBUTE TO STRONG
CYCLOGENESIS FROM E TX THIS MORNING NEWD TO TN OVERNIGHT. IN
RESPONSE TO THE DEEPENING CYCLONE...LOW-LEVEL SLY FLOW WILL INCREASE
/ESPECIALLY TONIGHT/ AND THE WARM SECTOR WILL SPREAD INLAND...THOUGH
THE N EDGE OF THE MORE UNSTABLE WARM SECTOR WILL BE MODULATED BY THE
INFLUENCE OF CLOUDS/RAIN. 

...LOWER MS VALLEY INTO GA/N FL THROUGH TONIGHT...
THE ONGOING RAIN/CONVECTION ACROSS LA IS A BIT FASTER THAN EARLIER
FORECAST...AND IT APPEARS THE PRIMARY WARM SECTOR WILL ONLY BECOME
ESTABLISHED FROM SE LA AND SRN MS EWD TODAY. STRENGTHENING OF
LOW-LEVEL FLOW/SHEAR IS EXPECTED LATE THIS AFTERNOON INTO
TONIGHT...WITH THE MORE FAVORABLE SUPERCELL PROFILES EXPECTED
BEGINNING THIS EVENING ON THE E EDGE OF THE ONGOING CONVECTION...AND
SPREADING EWD OVERNIGHT. THOUGH BUOYANCY WILL NOT BE PARTICULARLY
LARGE INLAND...THE VERY STRONG LOW-LEVEL SHEAR /EFFECTIVE SRH
300-600 M2 PER S2/ AND STRONG DEEP-LAYER SHEAR WITH LARGE
CROSS-BOUNDARY FLOW WILL PROMOTE PRE-FRONTAL CLUSTERS OF CELLS AND A
BROKEN BAND OF STORMS ALONG THE COLD FRONT. SINCE THE WARM SECTOR
WILL BE BETTER ESTABLISHED FARTHER E TODAY ACROSS SRN AL TO N
FL...IT APPEARS LIKELY THAT CONVECTION WILL PERSIST AND MAINTAIN
INTENSITY THROUGH EARLY WEDNESDAY. THE MORE INTENSE SUPERCELLS WILL
BE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING STRONG TORNADOES THIS EVENING INTO
TONIGHT...ALONG WITH DAMAGING WINDS. THE LARGE HAIL RISK WILL BE
MORE CONFINED TO AREAS WITH STRONGER BUOYANCY AND SOMEWHAT STEEPER
LAPSE RATES CLOSER TO THE COAST.

...EXTREME SE TX INTO WRN LA LATER AFTERNOON/EVENING...
A NARROW ZONE OF CLEARING WILL ALLOW SOME DESTABILIZATION IN THE
WAKE OF A LEAD SHORTWAVE TROUGH...AND COINCIDENT WITH THE PRIMARY
SYNOPTIC WAVE. LINGERING BOUNDARY LAYER DEWPOINTS IN THE 60S AND
RELATIVELY COOL MIDLEVEL TEMPERATURES COULD SUPPORT ISOLATED LARGE
HAIL/DAMAGING GUSTS WITH A SHORT BAND OF CONVECTION ALONG THE COLD
FRONT THIS AFTERNOON/EVENING.

 

[ClicheVortex2014]

First tornadic supercell of the day

 

[Brick Tamland]

Are there no watches yet?

[ClicheVortex2014]

Are there no watches yet?

60% chance for tornado watch in the western part of the enhanced risk. They mention there'll probably be another watch later for strong tornadoes.

[janetjanet998]

RGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED  
TORNADO WATCH NUMBER 19  
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK  
1110 AM CST TUE FEB 23 2016  
 
THE NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER HAS ISSUED A  
 
* TORNADO WATCH FOR PORTIONS OF  
SOUTH CENTRAL AND SOUTHEAST LOUISIANA  
EXTREME SOUTHERN MISSISSIPPI  
COASTAL WATERS  
 
* EFFECTIVE THIS TUESDAY MORNING AND AFTERNOON FROM 1110 AM UNTIL  
500 PM CST.  
 
* PRIMARY THREATS INCLUDE...  
A FEW TORNADOES POSSIBLE  
ISOLATED DAMAGING WIND GUSTS TO 70 MPH POSSIBLE  
ISOLATED LARGE HAIL EVENTS TO 1 INCH IN DIAMETER POSSIBLE  
 
SUMMARY...SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE TO DEVELOP AND  
SPREAD NORTHEASTWARD ACROSS SOUTH CENTRAL AND SOUTHEAST LOUISIANA  
THROUGH THE AFTERNOON...AS THE STORM ENVIRONMENT GRADUALLY BECOMES  

MORE FAVORABLE FOR TORNADOES.  

[kayman]

Reports of a funnel cloud at Louis Armstrong New Orleans Int'l. Airport.  The tornado warning has been moved to Jefferson Parish including Kenner.

[NavarreDon]

Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk

[kayman]

The hook echo with the Jefferson/St. Charles parish supercell is moved over Lake Pontchartrain with a Special Marine Warning for tornadic waterspouts.   

[Brick Tamland]

Damage reported in St Charles.

[kayman]

Damage reported in St Charles.

 

Yeah, damage reports at the KMSY to the rental car facilities.  The damage in St. Charles Parish is near I-310.  The details haven't be fully reported.

[5statewx]

SPC outlook made the enhanced a little wider and added a hashed area. 

Also says, "A STRONG-TORNADO RISK MAY

MAXIMIZE OVER NORTH CAROLINA."

[kayman]

Reports are now in from the St. Charles/Jefferson Parish storm.  Utility poles were damaged, shingles were removed off single-family residence, patio damage near I-310 and Airline Highway (US 61) in St. Charles Parish.

[kayman]

Additional damage reports and pictures are coming in from Kenner near KMSY (Armstrong New Orleans Int'l. Airport) per WWL-TV.

[Brick Tamland]