Shawn Posted February 23, 2016 Share Posted February 23, 2016 Hm, that recent cell in TX was off the charts on my color scale... radio scanner traffic, local news for the areas, all empty. Odd. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Shawn Posted February 23, 2016 Share Posted February 23, 2016 From CAE east looks good to me. How far south the "wedge" goes, before moving north (as a warm front) will decide the place for the best dynamics here in the midlands early in the day wed. Then we get more fun as the front rolls through I'm trying to not put too much credit into "where the best ingredients" are... I think we all have a risk in the midlands. moderate+ risk should be coming soon I'd think. I was telling a friend recently that the wedge could ruin the higher chance around these parts for saluda, lexington, richland. we will have to see I guess Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ClicheVortex2014 Posted February 23, 2016 Share Posted February 23, 2016 Hm, that recent cell in TX was off the charts on my color scale... radio scanner traffic, local news for the areas, all empty. Odd. If you're talking about the severe warned one, the velocity scan is showing 70-75 MPH winds with it, about 1200 feet off the ground. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Shawn Posted February 23, 2016 Share Posted February 23, 2016 If you're talking about the severe warned one, the velocity scan is showing 70-75 MPH winds with it, about 1200 feet off the ground. Well, I think my color table made it look way worse than it actually was. Pretty good hail and wind I'd bet. I'm used to staring at the weak cells around these parts in central SC and it was eye-popping compared. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ClicheVortex2014 Posted February 23, 2016 Share Posted February 23, 2016 Well, I think my color table made it look way worse than it actually was. Pretty good hail and wind I'd bet. I'm used to staring at the weak cells around these parts in central SC and it was eye-popping compared. What radar/app are you using? It was really nasty earlier. I think it was up to 75 dbz in the bow echo. The warning was for 70 MPH winds and quarter size hail, but I can't imagine the hail wasn't bigger than that. This is an unusually high reflectivity bow echo though. Especially for this time of year. I'll never forget that derecho last summer (I think) that was warned for 90 MPH winds and 4" hail. Ouch. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chinook Posted February 23, 2016 Share Posted February 23, 2016 Composite reflectivity had that Texas high-precip storm at 77.5 dBz east of Laughlin Air Force Base, which is about the top dBz value you could possibly get. That area reported 1" hail and 52kt wind gust. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Shawn Posted February 23, 2016 Share Posted February 23, 2016 What radar/app are you using? It was really nasty earlier. I think it was up to 75 dbz in the bow echo. The warning was for 70 MPH winds and quarter size hail, but I can't imagine the hail wasn't bigger than that. This is an unusually high reflectivity bow echo though. Especially for this time of year. I'll never forget that derecho last summer (I think) that was warned for 90 MPH winds and 4" hail. Ouch. GRLEVEL2AE. I switched color tables recently to a -30 / 95 dbz one. So on my end I saw ridicouls white and purple colors. Need to get used to the table. It shows much better detail and specifics... basically on the table the 0dbz in a light sky blue. the 70 dbz is white... so when i saw sky blue, to green, to yellow, red, purple, second blue, black... white.. it looked really intense. Basically, color table. but there was some inch hail in there at least... heavy stuff came down at one point before it reached the dallas area.\ Edit: something told me to save an image of it... i wish I had of (no longer archived) so you'd see why i was like "omg wtf?" lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ClicheVortex2014 Posted February 23, 2016 Share Posted February 23, 2016 Lots of talk about discrete supercells in the new day 1 outlook. I'd say it's safe to say storm mode doesn't appear to be a limiting factor. Now, if more CAPE can be realized than currently expected... crap will hit the fan so much harder. DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1142 PM CST MON FEB 22 2016 VALID 231200Z - 241200Z ..THERE IS A MDT RISK OF SVR TSTMS OVER PORTIONS OF SE LA SRN MS...SRN AL...AND THE FAR WRN FL PANHANDLE... ...THERE IS AN ENH RISK OF SVR TSTMS SURROUNDING THE MDT RISK FROM SRN LA EWD TO FAR SW GA/CNTRL FL PANHANDLE... ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS SURROUNDING THE ENH RISK FROM THE UPPER TX COAST ACROSS MUCH OF THE SOUTHEAST... ...THERE IS A MRGL RISK OF SVR TSTMS SURROUNDING THE SLGT RISK FROM CNTRL TX INTO THE SRN APPALACHIANS... ..SUMMARY SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS CAPABLE OF DAMAGING WINDS AND TORNADOES WILL BE LIKELY OVER PORTIONS OF THE GULF COAST STATES TUESDAY. A FEW OF THE TORNADOES MAY BE STRONG...ESPECIALLY TUESDAY AFTERNOON AND INTO TUESDAY NIGHT. ..SYNOPSIS STRONG SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL PROGRESS ACROSS THE SRN PLAINS AND LWR MS VALLEY DURING THE PERIOD WHILE RAPIDLY DEEPENING. THE INITIALLY OPEN WAVE IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP A CLOSED CIRCULATION BY TUESDAY EVENING AS IT MATURES. STRONG SLY/SWLY LOW-LEVEL FLOW WILL DEVELOP AHEAD OF THE SYSTEM ACROSS THE LWR MS VALLEY AND SOUTHEAST WHILE A STRONG MID-LEVEL JET PIVOTS AROUND THE UPPER LOW. THE RESULTING KINEMATIC ENVIRONMENT WILL BE VERY FAVORABLE FOR SEVERE TSTMS...PRIMARILY ACROSS THE LWR MS VALLEY AND PORTIONS OF THE SOUTHEAST. ..UPPER TX COAST EWD THROUGH MUCH OF THE SOUTHEAST SURFACE LOW INITIALLY CENTERED OVER THE TX HILL COUNTRY IS EXPECTED TO RAPIDLY DEEPEN AS IT TRACKS NEWD ACROSS NRN LA AND MS. AS MENTIONED IN THE SYNOPSIS...STRONG LOW-LEVEL FLOW IS EXPECTED AHEAD OF THE LOW...WHICH WILL ENCOURAGE MOISTURE RETURN ACROSS THE LWR MS VALLEY AND GULF COAST. THE CHARACTER OF THIS MOISTURE RETURN IS THE PRIMARY UNCERTAINTY REGARDING THE EXTENT OF THE SVR THREAT ACROSS THE REGION. GUIDANCE IS IN RELATIVELY GOOD AGREEMENT THAT DEWPOINTS WILL STRUGGLE TO REACH THE MID 60S...WHICH WHEN COMBINED WITH POOR LAPSE RATES RESULTS IN RATHER MEAGER INSTABILITY. WARM SECTOR IS CURRENTLY EXPECTED TO BE CHARACTERIZED BY DEWPOINTS AROUND 61-64 DEG F AND MLCAPE LESS THAN 700 J PER KG. DESPITE LIMITED INSTABILITY...THE KINEMATIC FIELDS WILL BE VERY FAVORABLE FOR SVR TSTMS. AS THE MID-LEVEL JET /80-100 KT AT 500 MB/ PIVOTS AROUND THE UPPER LOW IT WILL EJECT OUT OVER THE WARM SECTOR AND ITS ASSOCIATED STRONG LOW-LEVEL FLOW...RESULTING IN A SYNOPTICALLY FAVORABLE SET-UP FOR DISCRETE TSTMS. 0-6 KM BULK SHEAR WILL LIKELY BE AROUND 50-60 KT. SOME GUIDANCE HAS 0-1 KM SRH VALUES OVER 400 M2/S2 AND 0-3 KM SRH VALUES OVER 600 M2/S2. ANY PRE-FRONTAL...WARM SECTOR CONVECTION WILL LIKELY BE SUPERCELLUAR AND CAPABLE OF PRODUCING ALL SEVERE HAZARDS...INCLUDING TORNADOES. A MORE DISCRETE MODE MAY ALSO BE REALIZED WITH ANY ACTIVITY THAT DEVELOPS ALONG THE FRONT DURING THE EVENING WHEN THE STRONGEST PORTION OF THE MID-LEVEL JET MOVES INTO THE REGION...WITH THE RESULTING FAST STORM MOTION TAKING STORMS INTO THE WARM SECTOR. BOWING LINE SEGMENTS ARE ALSO PROBABLE WITH AN INCREASED DAMAGING WIND POTENTIAL. HIGHEST CONFIDENCE IN TORNADOES CURRENTLY EXISTS FROM PORTIONS OF SRN LA NEWD INTO SRN AL WITH THE BULK OF THIS THREAT OCCURRING AFTER 00Z. GIVEN THE STRENGTH OF THE LOW-LEVEL FLOW...SOME POTENTIALLY SIGNIFICANT TORNADOES ARE POSSIBLE. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chinook Posted February 23, 2016 Share Posted February 23, 2016 They still even have a day-1 (till 12z) 15% hail/wind and severe thunderstorm watch going after midnight central time. I wonder what the upcoming day-2 outlook will be. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Superstorm93 Posted February 23, 2016 Share Posted February 23, 2016 ESRL HRRR already showing some pretty intense cells developing tomorrow evening Sent from my SM-G925V using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ClicheVortex2014 Posted February 23, 2016 Share Posted February 23, 2016 They still even have a day-1 (till 12z) 15% hail/wind and severe thunderstorm watch going after midnight central time. I wonder what the upcoming day-2 outlook will be. I'm going with enhanced for now, upgraded to moderate this afternoon Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
5statewx Posted February 23, 2016 Share Posted February 23, 2016 Euro gets the majority of E NC into the lower 70s Wednesday afternoon. Much more expansive than the 12z run Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LovingGulfLows Posted February 23, 2016 Share Posted February 23, 2016 On the weather channel, they are literally using the color white for extremely high DBZs. I have never seen this before. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ClicheVortex2014 Posted February 23, 2016 Share Posted February 23, 2016 It's ridiculous we're seeing a 75 dBz bow echo in the middle of a February night. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SharonA Posted February 23, 2016 Share Posted February 23, 2016 Edit: something told me to save an image of it... i wish I had of (no longer archived) so you'd see why i was like "omg wtf?" lol I fired up Analyst and grabbed an image. FWIW, I've archived off the Analyst raw files. If anyone wants to play with them after the event, drop me a line. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SharonA Posted February 23, 2016 Share Posted February 23, 2016 Big swath of 70+dBz returns. This is using the default GR2Analyst colors - one scan did show 80dBz. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Shawn Posted February 23, 2016 Share Posted February 23, 2016 I fired up Analyst and grabbed an image. KDFX_20160223_0542_GRA_BR_05.jpg FWIW, I've archived off the Analyst raw files. If anyone wants to play with them after the event, drop me a line. Thanks for that image! it was a bit like that, but the sky blue, purples, reds aand everything in my custom table made it look much worse. Here is the color table I have on: (it is great for details, but again, I am not used to it and assume crazy colors = bad) units: dBZ step: 5 color: -30 0 0 0 128 128 128 color: 0 205 250 254 54 252 255 color: 5 53 245 253 5 8 164 color: 20 3 255 3 2 104 2 color: 35 255 247 10 255 109 4 color: 50 255 0 0 127 0 0 color: 60 255 204 255 252 19 255 color: 65 120 255 250 14 24 171 color: 70 255 255 255 0 0 0 color: 75 0 0 0 color: 95 0 0 0 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SharonA Posted February 23, 2016 Share Posted February 23, 2016 Interesting to see how it's developed over the last 6 scans (SRV lowest elevation) - 0620Z: 0625Z: 0631Z: 0636Z: 0642Z: 0648Z: Saving it off as JPEG lowered some of the impact. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
5statewx Posted February 23, 2016 Share Posted February 23, 2016 Smaller enhanced than I was anticipating Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Shawn Posted February 23, 2016 Share Posted February 23, 2016 Smaller enhanced than I was anticipating ..LEITMAN.. 02/23/2016 FARTHER NORTH AND EAST FROM CENTRAL/EASTERN SC THROUGH THE PIEDMONTOF NC/VA...BETTER LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE /MID TO POSSIBLE UPPER 60S/ AND WARMER SURFACE TEMPS SHOULD RESULT IN GREATER DESTABILIZATION /MUCAPE 500-1000 J PER KG/ INTO THE AFTERNOON AS THE WARM FRONT LIFTS NORTH. FURTHERMORE...THE PRESENCE OF BACKED-LOW LEVEL WINDS WILL RESULT IN LARGE HODOGRAPHS. AS A RESULT...A GREATER POTENTIAL FOR TORNADIC SUPERCELLS COULD EXIST ACROSS EASTERN NC...AND PERHAPS INTO SOUTHEAST VA BETWEEN 18-00Z. DAMAGING WINDS AND PERHAPS SOME SPORADIC HAIL ARE ALSO POSSIBLE. Thank God i wasn't nuts looking at NE SC into Eastern NC. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hvward Posted February 23, 2016 Share Posted February 23, 2016 Enroute to Hattiesburg, MS currently. This one looks like it is setting up to produce some fireworks later today. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NavarreDon Posted February 23, 2016 Share Posted February 23, 2016 Enroute to Hattiesburg, MS currently. This one looks like it is setting up to produce some fireworks later today. Be safe Howard!, are you going to be posting & chasing or just studying? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
metalicwx366 Posted February 23, 2016 Share Posted February 23, 2016 Be safe Howard!, are you going to be posting & chasing or just studying?I'll try to post here if I get back in time. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NavarreDon Posted February 23, 2016 Share Posted February 23, 2016 MOB morning disco, not to much added since yesterday as it's close to go time. They do include some guesses on timing. AREA FORECAST DISCUSSIONNATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOBILE AL527 AM CST TUE FEB 23 2016.NEAR TERM /NOW THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...LITTLE CHANGE IN PREVIOUSTHINKING WITH REGARDS TO THE POTENTIAL FOR SEVERE WEATHER AND THEPOSSIBILITY OF STRONG, LONG TRACKED TORNADOES. DYNAMIC VARIABLESREMAIN VERY IMPRESSIVE THE FORCING, SHEAR AND HELICITY ALL POINT TOWIDESPREAD SEVERE WEATHER POTENTIAL THIS AFTERNOON INTO THE OVERNIGHTHOURS. LARGE HAIL IS POSSIBLE AS WBZ HEIGHTS FALL BELOW 10000FEET...DAMAGING STRAIGHT LINE WINDS FROM WELL DEFINED BOW ECHOESDRIVEN BY WELL ORGANIZED COLD POOLS. THE ONLY POTENTIAL LIMITINGFACTOR IS THE LOW INSTABILITY PROJECTED BY THE GFS ML CAPES 200 TO500 J/KG...PROBABLY WAY UNDER DONE...NAM PROJECTS 1000 TO 1500 J/KG.EVEN IF THEY ARE LOW...GIVEN THE STRONG DIVERGENCE ALOFT, HIGH SHEARAND INTENSE FORCING LITTLE`S NEEDED. THESE ARE VERY UNUSUALCONDITIONS FOR THE GULF COAST AND AS A RESULT SPC HAS OUTLOOKED OURAREA AS A MODERATE RISK.TIMING STILL REMAINS A CHALLENGE BUT CURRENT THINKING PUTS THE RISKOF SEVERE BEGINNING THIS AFTERNOON AFTER THE MID LEVEL CAP BREAKSALLOWING ALL THIS LOW LEVEL MOISTURE TO MIX OUT SOME...SHEARINCREASING...INSTABILITY INCREASING...DIVERGENCE ALOFTINCREASING...COULD START SEEING DISCRETE SUPER CELLS OVER SOUTHEASTMS AND SW AL MID THROUGH LATE AFTERNOON AND BY EVENING ACTIVITY WILLSHIFT INTO SOUTH CENTRAL AL AND THE WESTERN FL PANHANDLE. TIMING ONTHE SQUALL LINE IS A BIT SKETCHY AS THE SYSTEM IS STILL ORGANIZINGBUT BEST GUESS PUTS IT INTO OUR MS COUNTIES MID EVENING AND THROUGHMOBILE AROUND 10 PM AND THROUGH OUR SOUTH CENTRAL AL AND WESTERN FLCOUNTIES A LITTLE AFTER MIDNIGHT. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brick Tamland Posted February 23, 2016 Share Posted February 23, 2016 Smaller enhanced than I was anticipating Wonder if that will be upgraded to at least a moderate threat tomorrow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mackerel_sky Posted February 23, 2016 Share Posted February 23, 2016 The fact that the line will be coming through my area between 5-7 AM, will atleast keep there from being any added instability , due to heating of the day. So that's a good thing! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hvward Posted February 23, 2016 Share Posted February 23, 2016 Be safe Howard!, are you going to be posting & chasing or just studying? Thanks Don! I should be able to post and do some updating while I chase this time because I have someone driving me. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
janetjanet998 Posted February 23, 2016 Share Posted February 23, 2016 MCS over the Houston area may move along the gulf coast today messing up moisture return and inflow...will have to see how fast it can clear the area and if we can have recovery in its wake as of 12z 63-65 dewpoints along the LA MS and FL coasts but the MCS will likely move along it ahead of the main dynamics Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
shaggy Posted February 23, 2016 Share Posted February 23, 2016 I have to go to work tomorrow night at 6pm and really hope the threat has passed since i'm right in that enhanced area tomorrow. Really don't wanna leave the family with so much potential for severe weather. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Dunkman Posted February 23, 2016 Share Posted February 23, 2016 Wonder if that will be upgraded to at least a moderate threat tomorrow. I would anticipate that's what they're thinking at this time. Make the current enhanced area a mod when it gets in range for a day 1 outlook and then have an enhanced area around it including a lot of SC. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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