Severe Potential Feb 23-24

[janetjanet998]

REA FORECAST DISCUSSION  
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOBILE AL  
446 PM CST MON FEB 22 2016  
 
...A SIGNIFICANT THREAT OF SEVERE STORMS IS FORECAST OVER THE LOCAL  
AREA TUESDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH EARLY WEDNESDAY MORNING...  
 
...POTENTIAL EXISTS FOR STRONG AND LONG TRACK TORNADOES TUESDAY  
AFTERNOON INTO EARLY WEDNESDAY MORNING...  
   
NEAR TERM /NOW THROUGH TUESDAY/  
A WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY EXTENDING  
FROM SOUTHERN MISSISSIPPI UP TO THE NORTHEAST ACROSS CENTRAL ALABAMA  
THIS EVENING WILL REMAIN NEARLY STATIONARY OR LIFT NORTH ACROSS THE  
REGION TONIGHT. AN AREA OF RAIN WITH A FEW THUNDERSTORMS CURRENTLY  
ORIENTED ALONG AND AHEAD OF THE FRONT WILL MOVE SLOWLY EAST ACROSS  
WESTERN HALF OF OUR FCST AREA THIS EVENING AND INTO THE EARLY  
PREDAWN MORNING HOURS TUESDAY. WE ARE EXPECTING COVERAGE TO DECREASE  
AFTER MIDNIGHT AS WEAK SUPPORTING UPPER DYNAMICS WEAKEN OVER THE  
AREA...BUT THERE WILL BE A CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND ISOLATED  
THUNDERSTORMS TO CONTINUE THROUGH THE NIGHT. LIGHT SOUTHERLY FLOW  
CONTINUES TONIGHT...BRINGING EVER INCREASING MOISTURE INTO THE  
REGION. OBSERVED SFC DEWPOINTS HAVE ALREADY BEEN RUNNING UP TO  
AROUND 5 DEGREES ABOVE GUIDANCE...AND WE EXPECT THIS TO CONTINUE  
OVERNIGHT. WITH THIS...AREAS OF FOG AGAIN POSSIBLE TONIGHT NEAR THE  
COAST AND OUT OVER THE ADJACENT MARINE AREAS. LOWS TONIGHT IN THE  
MID TO UPPER 50S OVER INTERIOR COUNTIES.  
 
BIG CHANGES ON THE WAY TUESDAY...WITH THE AFTERNOON HOURS (AND  
CONTINUING INTO THE EVENING HOURS...SEE SHORT TERM DISCUSSION  
BELOW) EXPECT TO HAVE A SIGNIFICANT CHANCE OF SEVERE WEATHER. THE  
DAY BEGINS WITH A RAPIDLY AMPLIFYING UPPER SYSTEM (BECOMING  
NEGATIVELY TILTED DURING THE COURSE OF THE DAY) SWINGING EAST OUT OF  
TEXAS TO NEAR NORTHEAST LOUISIANA BY THE END OF THE DAY. JUST TO THE  
EAST OF THE UPPER LOW...VERY INTENSE AND DEEPENING SFC LOW PRESSURE  
WILL LIFT NORTHEAST OUT OF SOUTHEAST COASTAL TEXAS TO NORTHEAST  
LOUISIANA (WHERE SOME MODEL OUTPUTS INDICATES A PRESSURE AS LOW AS  
988 MB). ALL INGREDIENTS COMING TOGETHER FOR ONSET OF A SIGNIFICANT  
SEVERE WEATHER EVENT BY MID AFTERNOON (AND CONTINUING INTO THE  
EVENING). THREAT FOR SEVERE WEATHER WILL RAPIDLY INCREASE AFTER ABOUT  
2 PM...ESPECIALLY OVER INTERIOR SOUTHEAST MISSISSIPPI AND MOVING INTO  
PORTIONS OF EXTREME SOUTHWEST ALABAMA THROUGH 6 PM. MODELS HAVE  
ALREADY BEEN NOTED TO BE UNDERESTIMATING THE INSTABILITY...ESPECIALLY  
THE GFS...WITH THE NAM AND ECMWF SEEMING TO ADJUST A LITTLE CLOSER  
WITH CURRENT TRENDS. FOR THIS REASON WE LEANED TOWARD A COMBINATION  
OF THESE TWO SOLUTIONS. WITH THE HIGHER MOISTURE LEVELS EXPECTED THAN  
MODELS SUGGEST...BELIEVE THE 1500 MUCAPES ADVERTISED TO BE DEVELOPING  
OVER OUR WESTERN FCST AREA BY LATE AFTERNOON BY THE NAM ARE NOT  
UNREASONABLE. IN ADDITION TO THESE CAPE VALUES...0-1KM SR-HEL VALUES  
APPROACHING 400 M2/S2 AND 0-3KM SR-HEL VALUES APPROACHING 500-600  
M2/S2 OVER OUR SOUTHEAST MISSISSIPPI COUNTIES BY THE END OF THE DAY  
AS LOW LEVEL 850 JET INCREASES TO AT LEAST 55 KNOTS. AS SUCH...SPC  
HAS OUTLOOKED ALL OF OUR AREA UNDER A MODERATE RISK OF SEVERE WEATHER  
ON TUESDAY...AND STRONG AND LONG TRACKED TORNADOES WILL BE POSSIBLE.  
A WIND ADVISORY IS ALSO NOW IN EFFECT FOR THE ENTIRE AREA ON  
TUESDAY...AND BOTH A HIGH SURF ADVISORY AND HIGH RIP CURRENT RISKS  
ALONG THE COAST. HIGH TEMPS TUESDAY EXPECTED TO BE IN THE LOW TO MID  
70S. 12/DS  

[NavarreDon]

Got to hand it to the local tv stations down this way. Local news leading off with the threat. Taking time to explain about discreet cells out ahead of the front while showing in house model. Explaining about moderate risk and what that really means. Doing a great job getting the word out to the general public with the caveat of prepare now not later.

 

 

This is not relative to the TV stations but thought I would add it to go along with the graph posted above.

 

Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk

[NavarreDon]

MOB disco is out....nice write up.

 

AFDMOB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOBILE AL
446 PM CST MON FEB 22 2016

...A SIGNIFICANT THREAT OF SEVERE STORMS IS FORECAST OVER THE LOCAL
AREA TUESDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH EARLY WEDNESDAY MORNING...

...POTENTIAL EXISTS FOR STRONG AND LONG TRACK TORNADOES TUESDAY
AFTERNOON INTO EARLY WEDNESDAY MORNING...

.NEAR TERM /NOW THROUGH TUESDAY/...A WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY EXTENDING
FROM SOUTHERN MISSISSIPPI UP TO THE NORTHEAST ACROSS CENTRAL ALABAMA
THIS EVENING WILL REMAIN NEARLY STATIONARY OR LIFT NORTH ACROSS THE
REGION TONIGHT. AN AREA OF RAIN WITH A FEW THUNDERSTORMS CURRENTLY
ORIENTED ALONG AND AHEAD OF THE FRONT WILL MOVE SLOWLY EAST ACROSS
WESTERN HALF OF OUR FCST AREA THIS EVENING AND INTO THE EARLY
PREDAWN MORNING HOURS TUESDAY. WE ARE EXPECTING COVERAGE TO DECREASE
AFTER MIDNIGHT AS WEAK SUPPORTING UPPER DYNAMICS WEAKEN OVER THE
AREA...BUT THERE WILL BE A CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS TO CONTINUE THROUGH THE NIGHT. LIGHT SOUTHERLY FLOW
CONTINUES TONIGHT...BRINGING EVER INCREASING MOISTURE INTO THE
REGION. OBSERVED SFC DEWPOINTS HAVE ALREADY BEEN RUNNING UP TO
AROUND 5 DEGREES ABOVE GUIDANCE...AND WE EXPECT THIS TO CONTINUE
OVERNIGHT. WITH THIS...AREAS OF FOG AGAIN POSSIBLE TONIGHT NEAR THE
COAST AND OUT OVER THE ADJACENT MARINE AREAS. LOWS TONIGHT IN THE
MID TO UPPER 50S OVER INTERIOR COUNTIES.

BIG CHANGES ON THE WAY TUESDAY...WITH THE AFTERNOON HOURS (AND
CONTINUING INTO THE EVENING HOURS...SEE SHORT TERM DISCUSSION
BELOW) EXPECT TO HAVE A SIGNIFICANT CHANCE OF SEVERE WEATHER. THE
DAY BEGINS WITH A RAPIDLY AMPLIFYING UPPER SYSTEM (BECOMING
NEGATIVELY TILTED DURING THE COURSE OF THE DAY) SWINGING EAST OUT OF
TEXAS TO NEAR NORTHEAST LOUISIANA BY THE END OF THE DAY. JUST TO THE
EAST OF THE UPPER LOW...VERY INTENSE AND DEEPENING SFC LOW PRESSURE
WILL LIFT NORTHEAST OUT OF SOUTHEAST COASTAL TEXAS TO NORTHEAST
LOUISIANA (WHERE SOME MODEL OUTPUTS INDICATES A PRESSURE AS LOW AS
988 MB). ALL INGREDIENTS COMING TOGETHER FOR ONSET OF A SIGNIFICANT
SEVERE WEATHER EVENT BY MID AFTERNOON (AND CONTINUING INTO THE
EVENING). THREAT FOR SEVERE WEATHER WILL RAPIDLY INCREASE AFTER ABOUT
2 PM...ESPECIALLY OVER INTERIOR SOUTHEAST MISSISSIPPI AND MOVING INTO
PORTIONS OF EXTREME SOUTHWEST ALABAMA THROUGH 6 PM. MODELS HAVE
ALREADY BEEN NOTED TO BE UNDERESTIMATING THE INSTABILITY...ESPECIALLY
THE GFS...WITH THE NAM AND ECMWF SEEMING TO ADJUST A LITTLE CLOSER
WITH CURRENT TRENDS. FOR THIS REASON WE LEANED TOWARD A COMBINATION
OF THESE TWO SOLUTIONS. WITH THE HIGHER MOISTURE LEVELS EXPECTED THAN
MODELS SUGGEST...BELIEVE THE 1500 MUCAPES ADVERTISED TO BE DEVELOPING
OVER OUR WESTERN FCST AREA BY LATE AFTERNOON BY THE NAM ARE NOT
UNREASONABLE. IN ADDITION TO THESE CAPE VALUES...0-1KM SR-HEL VALUES
APPROACHING 400 M2/S2 AND 0-3KM SR-HEL VALUES APPROACHING 500-600
M2/S2 OVER OUR SOUTHEAST MISSISSIPPI COUNTIES BY THE END OF THE DAY
AS LOW LEVEL 850 JET INCREASES TO AT LEAST 55 KNOTS. AS SUCH...SPC
HAS OUTLOOKED ALL OF OUR AREA UNDER A MODERATE RISK OF SEVERE WEATHER
ON TUESDAY...AND STRONG AND LONG TRACKED TORNADOES WILL BE POSSIBLE.
A WIND ADVISORY IS ALSO NOW IN EFFECT FOR THE ENTIRE AREA ON
TUESDAY...AND BOTH A HIGH SURF ADVISORY AND HIGH RIP CURRENT RISKS
ALONG THE COAST. HIGH TEMPS TUESDAY EXPECTED TO BE IN THE LOW TO MID
70S. 12/DS

.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...GLOBAL MODELS
ARE IN EXCELLENT AGREEMENT ALOFT AND AT THE SURFACE WITH THE POTENT
STORM SYSTEM LIFTING UP ACROSS THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY AND
MID-SOUTH TUESDAY EVENING. A STRONGLY REFLECTED NEGATIVE TILT
CONFIGURATION TO THE MID LEVEL GEO-POTENTIAL HEIGHT FIELDS WILL
INCREASE LARGE SCALE ASCENT WITHIN A WELL DEFINED WARM SECTOR TUESDAY
EVENING OVER THE CENTRAL GULF COAST THAT IS FORECAST TO CONTAIN MODEST
INSTABILITY. SUBSTANTIAL H50 HEIGHT FALLS TO BETWEEN 15 AND 20
DECAMETERS ROLLING ACROSS THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI RIVER DELTA RESULTS
IN THE RAPID INTENSIFICATION TO A FRONTAL SURFACE LOW WHICH
PROPAGATES NORTHEAST TO THE MID-SOUTH BY MIDNIGHT EARLY WEDNESDAY
MORNING. BETWEEN THE MODEL SOLUTIONS...CENTRAL PRESSURES LOWER TO A
RANGE OF 988 TO 993 MILLIBARS NEAR MONROE LOUISIANA BY EARLY TUESDAY
EVENING. FROM THERE...THE INTENSE LOW TRACKS NORTHEAST TO BETWEEN
GREENVILLE AND OXFORD MISSISSIPPI BY MIDNIGHT EARLY WEDNESDAY AM TO
JACKSON TENNESSEE BY DAYBREAK WEDNESDAY. THE ENSEMBLES INDICATE THAT
THE STRENGTH OF THIS LOW IS AN ANOMALY WITH SURFACE CENTRAL PRESSURES
SOME 3 TO 4 STANDARD DEVIATIONS BELOW THE MEAN. CONSIDERING THIS AND
THE REPRESENTATION OF THE PHYSICAL SOLUTIONS IN THE SPECTRAL
MODELS...THE WIND PROFILES IN THE LOWER LEVELS OF THE ATMOSPHERE ARE
FORECAST TO BE INTENSE OVER THE LOCAL AREA DURING THE EVENING.
CONSIDERING THIS...SOUTHWESTERLY 0-3 KM BULK SHEAR MAGNITUDES
TRENDING BETWEEN 45 AND 55 KNOTS COUPLED WITH STRONGLY BACKED SURFACE
WINDS...HODOGRAPHS ARE STRONGLY CURVED WITH 0-1 KM STORM RELATIVE
HELICITY VALUES BECOMING EXTREMELY HIGH...EXCEEDING 500 M2/S2. THIS
FAVORS WELL DEFINED ROTATION IN STRONGLY DEVELOPED SUPERCELLS...WITH
CONCERNS THAT WE COULD BE DEALING WITH INSTANCES OF STRONG AND LONG
TRACK TORNADOES. OTHER SEVERE WEATHER THREATS WILL BE DAMAGING WINDS
IN EXCESS OF 70 MPH AND GOLFBALL SIZE HAIL OR LARGER. FORECASTERS
STRONGLY ENCOURAGE EVERYONE TO PLAN AHEAD...BE WEATHER AWARE AND
VIGILANT INTO TUESDAY NIGHT. WITH THE EXPECTED STORM MOTION FORECAST
TO BE RAPID...IT IS IMPORTANT TO MOVE QUICKLY TO A PLACE OF SAFETY IN
THE EVENT A WARNING IS ISSUED FOR YOUR AREA.

[JoshM]

Wow... getting really anxious about severe weather, especially when I see colors like these.

 

[ClicheVortex2014]

Got to hand it to the local tv stations down this way. Local news leading off with the threat. Taking time to explain about discreet cells out ahead of the front while showing in house model. Explaining about moderate risk and what that really means. Doing a great job getting the word out to the general public with the caveat of prepare now not later.

 

 

This is not relative to the TV stations but thought I would add it to go along with the graph posted above.

 

Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk

That's good. Also glad to see NWS offices agreeing. What NWS Mobile said is impressive though - 1500 MUCAPE with 400 m2/s2 0-1km SRH and 500-600 0-3km. Sheesh.

[WeatherNC]

Wow... getting really anxious about severe weather, especially when I see colors like these.

 

Central NC is in for an active WX day on Wednesday.  4K NAM likely overdone but still impressive. 

[JoshM]

Central NC is in for an active WX day on Wednesday.  4K NAM likely overdone but still impressive. 

 

 

The NAM also wants to have 2 lines of storms coming thru, both look pretty nasty.

[Shawn]

You guys see the 110-120kt through Lousiana/AL?  Whew!

 

Andyhb had this to say about it:

 

 

 

You probably cannot draw it up more textbook than that at 500 mb. Fairly low amplitude/broad-based, neutral/slightly neg tilt trough with an extremely strong vort max and 110+ kt 500 mb jet streak plowing directly over top of the warm sector.

[downeastnc]

This event could be as big as 3-28-84 if the GFS verified with instability. It had -9 near CLT, with a large area of -4 or higher over much of NC and SC. 

 

Dunno if I would throw that date out there, that was and is the scariest storm night of my life....the F4 that Ted Fujita himself came to survey and was rated at 200 mph by him ( although I suspect it would be lower now) missed my house by a bit more than a mile. There was large debris coming down and the winds had to be 60-100mph at my house, a hood to a car landed across the street in the woods and there was shingles and pink insulation all over the place. We are talking 7 F4's and 5 F3's thats gonna be hard to top. 

[PackGrad05]

The SPC has central/eastern NC under a slight risk.

 

In April 2011, central NC was upgraded to a "high" risk the day of the event, and IIRC, that was only the second time in history central NC has been placed under the high risk.

[downeastnc]

The SPC has central/eastern NC under a slight risk.

 

In April 2011, central NC was upgraded to a "high" risk the day of the event, and IIRC, that was only the second time in history central NC has been placed under the high risk.

 

the other was 3-28-1984, so they at least got it right with the high risk......

[RubiksDestroyer]

 

The SPC has central/eastern NC under a slight risk.

 

In April 2011, central NC was upgraded to a "high" risk the day of the event, and IIRC, that was only the second time in history central NC has been placed under the high risk.

 

They haven't updated that since 3:30 AM today. Also, the areas under the Moderate risk for tomorrow were under the slight risk in the same time frame. I'm not sure if you're trying to suggest that this isn't going to be a big deal and that comparing these outbreaks isn't logically sound because of the SPC storm rating, but if so then you'd be wrong to assume that. I'm not saying we'll be under a high risk or anything like that (we likely won't be), but I wouldn't be surprised to see the SPC upgrade the risk to moderate for an isolated area in Central NC tomorrow morning.

[5statewx]

Yeah

 

 

 

 

They haven't updated that since 3:30 AM today. Also, the areas under the Moderate risk for tomorrow were under the slight risk in the same time frame. I'm not sure if you're trying to suggest that this isn't going to be a big deal and that comparing these outbreaks isn't logically sound because of the SPC storm rating, but if so then you'd be wrong to assume that. I'm not saying we'll be under a high risk or anything like that (we likely won't be), but I wouldn't be surprised to see the SPC upgrade the risk to moderate for an isolated area in Central NC tomorrow morning.

 

Yeah, doesn't really have any impact! For reference, this was the day 3 outlook for 2011

[jshetley]

Dunno if I would throw that date out there, that was and is the scariest storm night of my life....the F4 that Ted Fujita himself came to survey and was rated at 200 mph by him ( although I suspect it would be lower now) missed my house by a bit more than a mile. There was large debris coming down and the winds had to be 60-100mph at my house, a hood to a car landed across the street in the woods and there was shingles and pink insulation all over the place. We are talking 7 F4's and 5 F3's thats gonna be hard to top. 

The NAM does have it all coming through earlier though and that would take 3-28-1984 off the table, but this could easily top, or at least rival, 4-16-2011. The area from HWY 1 and east in NC looks to be the biggest target overall.

[5statewx]

The NAM does have it all coming through earlier though and that would take 3-28-1984 off the table, but this could easily top, or at least rival, 4-16-2011. The area from HWY 1 and east in NC looks to be the biggest target overall.

I wouldn't go as far as saying 'easily top', considering it's NC's largest tornado outbreak on record. 

[Solak]

 

 

 

They haven't updated that since 3:30 AM today.

They don't update the extended range severe forecasts as often as they do Day 1. I would expect an adjustment tomorrow, and possibly again Wed morning as the event gets closer.

[PackGrad05]

 

 

 

They haven't updated that since 3:30 AM today. Also, the areas under the Moderate risk for tomorrow were under the slight risk in the same time frame. I'm not sure if you're trying to suggest that this isn't going to be a big deal and that comparing these outbreaks isn't logically sound because of the SPC storm rating, but if so then you'd be wrong to assume that. I'm not saying we'll be under a high risk or anything like that (we likely won't be), but I wouldn't be surprised to see the SPC upgrade the risk to moderate for an isolated area in Central NC tomorrow morning.

 

I wasn't suggesting that at all.

 

On the contrary, by following up my post with the historical data of an upgrade occurring the day of the April 2011 outbreak, I was suggesting that we could likely see the risk upgraded by 0 hour, if not before.

[andyhb]

The NAM does have it all coming through earlier though and that would take 3-28-1984 off the table, but this could easily top, or at least rival, 4-16-2011. The area from HWY 1 and east in NC looks to be the biggest target overall.

 

While this is likely the biggest threat since then, talking about something "easily topping" an event that led to 139 tornado reports in the region is irresponsible. Even if this looked like 4/27/11 (which it doesn't), I would never bring up the thought of surpassing an event of that magnitude or even rivalling it prior to it actually happening or at least the day of. That's when the mesoscale details become most clear.

 

For the record, unless something drastic changes at 00z, I'd definitely say SPC upgrades to enhanced for something like Columbia to Durham eastward.

[ClicheVortex2014]

 

While this is likely the biggest threat since then, talking about something "easily topping" an event that led to 139 tornado reports in the region is irresponsible. Even if this looked liked 4/27/11 (which it doesn't), I would never bring up the thought of surpassing an event of that magnitude or even rivalling it prior to it actually happening or at least the day of. That's when the mesoscale details become most clear.

 

For the record, unless something drastic changes at 00z, I'd definitely say SPC upgrades to enhanced for something like Columbia to Durham eastward.

Well said

[Brick Tamland]

They don't update the extended range severe forecasts as often as they do Day 1. I would expect an adjustment tomorrow, and possibly again Wed morning as the event gets closer.

That is what happened with the 4/16/11 outbreak. I don't think we were in the high risk category until that day.

[RubiksDestroyer]

 

I wasn't suggesting that at all.

 

On the contrary, by following up my post with the historical data of an upgrade occurring the day of the April 2011 outbreak, I was suggesting that we could likely see the risk upgraded by 0 hour, if not before.

 

Ok, I wasn't sure if you were or not. I agree- I believe an upgrade to the severe storm risk is definitely imminent.

[ClicheVortex2014]

That is what happened with the 4/16/11 outbreak. I don't think we were in the high risk category until that day.

Enhanced came with the 06z day 2 outlook. Moderate came with the 1730z day 2 outlook. At about Noon Eastern time, they announced via an MCD that they'd upgrade to high risk with the 1630z day 1 outlook.

 

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0454

NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK

1116 AM CDT SAT APR 16 2011

AREAS AFFECTED...ERN NC

CONCERNING...OUTLOOK UPGRADE

VALID 161616Z - 161715Z

AN UPGRADE TO HIGH RISK FOR THE 1630Z CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK UPDATE IS

FORTHCOMING FOR ERN NC. THE COMBINATION OF VERY STRONG

SHEAR/MODERATE INSTABILITY...INCREASING LOW LEVEL MOISTURE...AND

LARGE SCALE ASCENT ACROSS THE REGION THIS AFTERNOON/EVENING LENDS

CONFIDENCE IN THE FORECAST FOR AN OUTBREAK OF SEVERE STORMS CAPABLE

OF PRODUCING SIGNIFICANT TORNADOES. 

 

[downeastnc]

That is what happened with the 4/16/11 outbreak. I don't think we were in the high risk category until that day.

 

They upgraded that morning or late overnight...look at my avatar lol...that event was crazy, the line of pathetic storms headed east into central NC  and then went discrete I have never seen that like that before. Usually discrete cells form into lines or line segments this did the opposite. 

 

This is a pretty cool map that kind highlights North Carolinas "tornado" alley

 

[Shawn]

While this is likely the biggest threat since then, talking about something "easily topping" an event that led to 139 tornado reports in the region is irresponsible. Even if this looked liked 4/27/11 (which it doesn't), I would never bring up the thought of surpassing an event of that magnitude or even rivalling it prior to it actually happening or at least the day of. That's when the mesoscale details become most clear.

 

For the record, unless something drastic changes at 00z, I'd definitely say SPC upgrades to enhanced for something like Columbia to Durham eastward.

 

I've noticed from an amateur/non experienced severe view.. that some parameters are looking worse towards the NE SC area from about Florence SC, into NC.

 

Am I looking at things correctly with that?  I was thinking that would be the area with the highest risk/spc wording.

[ClicheVortex2014]

They upgraded that morning or late overnight...look at my avatar lol...that event was crazy, the line of pathetic storms headed east into central NC  and then went discrete I have never seen that like that before. Usually discrete cells form into lines or line segments this did the opposite. 

 

This is a pretty cool map that kind highlights North Carolinas "tornado" alley

 

NC tonado alley.png

 

^ That map is the frequency of long-track violent tornadoes

[buckeyefan1]

I've noticed from an amateur/non experienced severe view.. that some parameters are looking worse towards the NE SC area from about Florence SC, into NC.

 

Am I looking at things correctly with that?  I was thinking that would be the area with the highest risk/spc wording.

From CAE east looks good to me. How far south the "wedge" goes, before moving north (as a warm front) will decide the place for the best dynamics here in the midlands early in the day wed. Then we get more fun as the front rolls through    

[Solak]

For tomorrow (Tuesday)

 

Jim Cantore ‏@JimCantore 4m4 minutes ago

Latest @NWSSPC probabilities for SEVERE WX which include the potential for tornadoes AFTER DARK TUESDAY into Wed AM

[ClicheVortex2014]

Someone on Accuweather forums from northwest of New Orleans (Pride, LA):

 

School closures for Louisiana have been announced:

 

For Baton Rouge:

http://theadvocate.com/sports/preps/14952378-148/baton-rouge-area-schools-announce-tuesday-closures-enhanced-risk-of-severe-weather-in-south-louisian

All over southeast La:

http://www.wwltv.com/story/weather/2016/02/22/multiple-parishes-close-schools-due-severe-weather-threat/80782856/

http://theadvocate.com/sports/preps/14952378-148/baton-rouge-area-schools-announce-tuesday-closures-enhanced-risk-of-severe-weather-in-south-louisian

http://www.nola.com/weather/index.ssf/2016/02/tangipahoa_washington_parish_s.html

 

This is pretty significant. It's one thing for us to close over an inch or two of slush, but to close over anticipated severe weather is rare down here. We've closed schools more often over hurricanes than over severe weather outbreaks (not like those are that common this close to the GOM however).

 

[weunice]

Yes, and there is much gnashing of teeth going on about it here. The school closings are very thorough on the I-12 corridor from West Baton Rouge all the way over to the LIX office in Slidell. LSU is even closed. 

[JasonOH]

This could be major if morning convection clears, but it is still not certain. Even though the 4K at 0z has much less instability, this is still a very volatile setup. Starting to near HRRR range, and almost in the range of the RAP. The HRRR advertises no convection until at least 15z based on the 0z run. Once the morning hits it will be time to go to the good ole soundings and surface charts.