Jump to content
  • Member Statistics

    17,609
    Total Members
    7,904
    Most Online
    NH8550
    Newest Member
    NH8550
    Joined

Severe Potential Feb 23-24


rolltide_130

Recommended Posts

  • Replies 1.1k
  • Created
  • Last Reply

Line is just finishing passing through here.  Quick burst of rain, a thunderclap or two and it was over. Winds have been blowing at a good clip for several hours.  It didn't seem to blow any harder during the passage.  Sky already very bright to the west.

 

Full sun.  Good luck to the east.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Severe thunderstorm warning for Alamance and Chatham Co until 3:45pm. Storm is moving east at 25 mph and damaging winds are LIKELY.

 

From what I can see with my eyeballs, it looks like the line out west is tracking very NNE, meaning it should rake across the state fairly slowly, even as it moves quickly, and that the part of the line that would hit us in the Triangle is still down in South Carolina. By that, it should still be a while before it gets here.

 

But is that a bad read on things? Approximately what heading is that line moving on?

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Not out of the woods yet!

 

mcd0148.gif

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0148   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK   0155 PM CST WED FEB 24 2016   AREAS AFFECTED...PORTIONS OF NC/SC TO SOUTHERN VA   CONCERNING...TORNADO WATCH 26...27...   VALID 241955Z - 242130Z   THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT FOR TORNADO WATCH 26...27...CONTINUES.   SUMMARY...THE TORNADO RISK SHOULD CONTINUE TO INCREASE/SPREAD   NORTH-NORTHEASTWARD ACROSS THE PIEDMONT OF NC/SC WITHIN TORNADO   WATCH 26...WHICH CONTINUES UNTIL 00Z/7PM EST. THIS INCLUDES THE   POSSIBILITY OF A STRONG TORNADO /EF2+/ OR TWO ESPECIALLY ACROSS NC   /AND INTO VA/ PORTIONS OF THE WATCH.   DISCUSSION...AS OF 245 PM EST/1930Z...A WARM FRONT/ABATING WEDGE   FRONT EFFECTIVELY EXTENDS FROM THE DELMARVA PENINSULA SOUTHWESTWARD   TO SOUTH-CENTRAL VA /NEAR FARMVILLE/ TO NEAR THE BORDER OF   VA/NORTHWEST NC NEAR THE DANVILLE VA VICINITY. WITHIN THE WARM   SECTOR TO THE SOUTH OF THE WEDGE FRONT...A NNE/SSW-ORIENTED BAND OF   STORMS CONTINUES TO GRADUALLY INTENSIFY /AS PER LIGHTNING TRENDS AND   MRMS ATTRIBUTES SUCH AS CAPPI/ AS IT APPROACHES THE NC PIEDMONT/FAR   SOUTH-CENTRAL VA. THE COINCIDES WITH A REGIONALLY MAXIMIZED CORRIDOR   OF 3-5MB/2-HR PRESSURE FALLS ACROSS THE NC PIEDMONT/CENTRAL   VA...WITH A TENDENCY FOR A BACKING /TO SOUTHEASTERLY/ OF LOW-LEVEL   WINDS AHEAD OF THE CONVECTIVE LINE. SAMPLING A RELATIVELY WARM/MOIST   BOUNDARY LAYER IN CONTRAST TO 12Z...A SPECIAL 18Z OBSERVED SOUNDING   FROM GREENSBORO NC FEATURED AN UNINHIBITED/MODESTLY UNSTABLE   BOUNDARY LAYER WITH VERY STRONG 50-60 KT SOUTH-SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS   WITHIN THE LOWEST 1-2 KM AGL. LATEST WSR-88D VWP DATA FROM RALEIGH   FEATURES NEARLY 400 M2/S2 OF 0-1 KM SRH. THIS WILL BE SUPPORTIVE OF   A STRONG TORNADO /EF2+/ RISK...WHICH SEEMS LIKELY TO INCREASE INTO   THE MID/LATE AFTERNOON HOURS.
Link to comment
Share on other sites

From what I can see with my eyeballs, it looks like the line out west is tracking very NNE, meaning it should rake across the state fairly slowly, even as it moves quickly, and that the part of the line that would hit us in the Triangle is still down in South Carolina. By that, it should still be a while before it gets here.

 

But is that a bad read on things? Approximately what heading is that line moving on?

 

I don't know about the rest of the Triangle, but the nasty cell in Seagrove looks like it's heading right for Durham.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

BULLETIN - EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTED
TORNADO WARNING
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE COLUMBIA SC
303 PM EST WED FEB 24 2016

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN COLUMBIA HAS ISSUED A

* TORNADO WARNING FOR...
EASTERN CHESTERFIELD COUNTY IN CENTRAL SOUTH CAROLINA...

* UNTIL 345 PM EST

* AT 302 PM EST...DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM
CAPABLE OF PRODUCING A TORNADO. THIS DANGEROUS STORM WAS LOCATED
OVER CLYDE...OR NEAR HARTSVILLE...AND MOVING NORTHEAST AT 70 MPH.

* LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE...
CHERAW...CHESTERFIELD...MCBEE...PATRICK AND MCFARLAN.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

I don't know about the rest of the Triangle, but the nasty cell in Seagrove looks like it's heading right for Durham.

 

Well, it probably helps that I'm an idiot, because I just realized the radar app I'm using is running about an hour behind.

 

Which is weird, because when I use the same thing in my browser at work, it's usually ~up-to-the-minute.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

AT 143 PM EST...DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A LINE OF SEVERE  
THUNDERSTORMS CAPABLE OF PRODUCING DAMAGING WINDS IN EXCESS OF 58  
MPH. THESE STORMS WERE LOCATED ALONG A LINE EXTENDING FROM 8 MILES  
EAST OF HIGH ROCK LAKE TO 6 MILES SOUTH OF WINGATE...AND MOVING  
NORTHEAST AT 105 MPH.  

 

Has to be a mistake, right?

Link to comment
Share on other sites

AT 143 PM EST...DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A LINE OF SEVERE  

THUNDERSTORMS CAPABLE OF PRODUCING DAMAGING WINDS IN EXCESS OF 58  

MPH. THESE STORMS WERE LOCATED ALONG A LINE EXTENDING FROM 8 MILES  

EAST OF HIGH ROCK LAKE TO 6 MILES SOUTH OF WINGATE...AND MOVING  

NORTHEAST AT 105 MPH.  

 

Has to be a mistake, right?

 

Not sure. We saw 85 mph report out of Gastonia earlier.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Storm mode looks to be the main mitigating factor with the cells W of Raleigh right now with a lot of interference. Something has to take over in order for the strong tornado potential to rise (it will quickly though if that happens with extreme 0-1 km SRH in the vicinity).

Link to comment
Share on other sites


309 PM EST WED FEB 24 2016

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN RALEIGH HAS ISSUED A

* TORNADO WARNING FOR...

WESTERN CHATHAM COUNTY IN CENTRAL NORTH CAROLINA...

NORTHWESTERN MOORE COUNTY IN CENTRAL NORTH CAROLINA...

NORTHWESTERN LEE COUNTY IN CENTRAL NORTH CAROLINA...

SOUTHEASTERN RANDOLPH COUNTY IN CENTRAL NORTH CAROLINA...

* UNTIL 400 PM EST

* AT 309 PM EST...DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM

CAPABLE OF PRODUCING A TORNADO. THIS DANGEROUS STORM WAS LOCATED 9

MILES NORTHEAST OF BISCOE...OR 13 MILES SOUTHEAST OF NORTH CAROLINA

ZOO...AND MOVING NORTHEAST AT 65 MPH.

* LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE...

SANFORD...SILER CITY...GOLDSTON...SEAGROVE...ROBBINS...GUM

SPRINGS...HARPERS CROSSROADS...CUMNOCK...HIGHFALLS AND HASTY.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Yeah I am concerned about Chapel Hill.

 

Storms keep cutting off the inflow to each other, like Andy said storm mode saving the day so far, any couplets that form are short lived, we get something out in front or some spacing and it would be so bad......everything that is open to the SE side would pop a tornado....

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Archived

This topic is now archived and is closed to further replies.

  • Recently Browsing   0 members

    • No registered users viewing this page.

×
×
  • Create New...