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Severe Potential Feb 23-24


rolltide_130

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DISCUSSION...EARLY THIS AFTERNOON /1 PM EST/...MULTIPLE

NNE/SSW-ORIENTED BANDS OF INCREASINGLY INTENSE STORMS ARE ONGOING IN

TWO DISTINCT CORRIDORS...ONE ACROSS WESTERN NC AND THE OTHER ACROSS

EAST-CENTRAL NC...EACH ASSOCIATED WITH INCREASINGLY CONFLUENT

LOW-LEVEL FLOW...WHILE AN INCREASE IN SHOWERS HAS ALSO RECENTLY BEEN

NOTED ACROSS THE NC PIEDMONT/SOUTH-CENTRAL VA. AN

EROSION/NORTHWARD-SHIFT OF THE WEDGE FRONT CONTINUES TO OCCUR AS A

WARM FRONT EFFECTIVELY ANGLES SOUTHWEST/NORTHEASTWARD AT THE PRESENT

TIME FROM WESTERN NC INTO FAR SOUTH-CENTRAL AND EAST-CENTRAL VA.

GIVEN THAT REGIONAL OBSERVED SOUNDINGS/RECENT WSR-88D VWP DATA ARE

SAMPLING AN EXTREMELY STRONG DEEP-LAYER WIND FIELD AND INCREASING

FORCING FOR ASCENT/MASS RESPONSE WILL INFLUENCE THE REGION...IT

SEEMS VERY LIKELY THAT THE TORNADO RISK WILL CONTINUE TO

INCREASE/SHIFT GENERALLY NORTHWARD THIS AFTERNOON AS ADDITIONAL

DESTABILIZATION/FRONTAL WEDGE EROSION CONTINUES TO OCCUR.
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Straight line winds will be an issue for Wake as that line progresses east...but I hope it stays straight line and no rotation.

 

Gardner on WRAL says she hopes the showers we just had in wake helped to stabilize things.

 

And I mentioned Fishel said that one model he looked at showed shear relaxing in wake by 3PM

 

Yea if folks down east can survive 1st line, the second one is  mostly gonna affect northern piedmont areas. WS to Burlington up toward Kerr Lake.

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Straight line winds will be an issue for Wake as that line progresses east...but I hope it stays straight line and no rotation.

Gardner on WRAL says she hopes the showers we just had in wake helped to stabilize things.

And I mentioned Fishel said that one model he looked at showed shear relaxing in wake by 3PM

A friend also told me he kept saying over and over that there were no tornado warnings in that line and there was... Hickory area had one until 12:30. That there were only storm watches etc. really downplayed it. It's my understanding it'll strengthen as it moves east.

Sun is back out here in Raleigh and blaring hard.

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Wow c5cfbac7fbdb82bcc513e45ea6256c85.jpg

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This was legit. Passed right over my house. I opened the door and my wife asked if it was an airplane it was so loud. We got misted out and it was near zero visibility winds were very strong and went out of the Northeast then swung back around as it passed. Winds were 60 plus and the house actually shook on one of the gusts.

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Holy cow.  Is that the cell over Greenville proper, or from the warning to the west near Falkland?  I've been trying to get up with my parents in that area and have had no word, so a little concerned after seeing that scan :(

 

ETA:  just saw your update, and they texted me (safe, at the hospital visiting).

 

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1569a44f44286a2626f3b3937a1dde79.jpg


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