yotaman Posted February 24, 2016 Share Posted February 24, 2016 71/66 here and the wind has really picked up in the last hour. Probably blowing in the 20-30mph range. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stump Posted February 24, 2016 Share Posted February 24, 2016 Anybody got a dang PC based velocity map that is worth a dang. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Solak Posted February 24, 2016 Share Posted February 24, 2016 10:19am CST #SPC_Watch WW 26 TORNADO NC SC 241615Z - 250000Z, #ncwx #scwx, http://go.usa.gov/cpzwm Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stebaney Posted February 24, 2016 Share Posted February 24, 2016 How does the rising temps and clear skies affect the intensity of the storm. It is really sunny here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brick Tamland Posted February 24, 2016 Share Posted February 24, 2016 MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0142NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK1016 AM CST WED FEB 24 2016AREAS AFFECTED...EASTERN CAROLINASCONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH LIKELYVALID 241616Z - 241745ZPROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...95 PERCENTSUMMARY...TORNADO RISK WILL EXIST/GRADUALLY INCREASE PARTICULARLYACROSS EAST-CENTRAL NC INTO SOUTHEAST VA THROUGH EARLY AFTERNOON. ARECENTLY ISSUED TORNADO WATCH INCLUDES PORTIONS OF THE REGION...ANDTRENDS WILL OTHERWISE CONTINUE TO BE MONITORED FOR ANY NECESSARYADDITIONAL TORNADO WATCH ISSUANCES.DISCUSSION...A PERSISTENT NNE/SSW-ORIENTED BAND OF CONVECTION ACROSSEAST-CENTRAL/COASTAL PORTIONS OF NC/SC HAS INTENSIFIED OVER THE PASTHALF HOUR INCLUDING A COUPLE OF EMBEDDED STRONG SUPERCELLS. ACONSIDERABLE AMOUNT OF CLOUD COVER PRECEDES THIS CONVECTION...BUTTEMPERATURES CONTINUE TO WARM INTO THE UPPER 60S F IN CONJUNCTIONWITH MIDDLE 60S F DEWPOINTS...WHICH ARE CONDUCIVE FOR SURFACE-BASEDCONVECTION VIA MODIFIED 12Z OBSERVED/SHORT-TERM SOUNDINGS.LOW-LEVEL/DEEP-LAYER SHEAR IS WELL-SUPPORTIVE OF A TORNADORISK...INCLUDING STRONG TORNADO POTENTIAL...AS ACCENTUATED BY RECENT350-450 M2/S2 OF 0-1 KM SRH AS PER RALEIGH/MOREHEAD CITY WSR-88D VWPDATA...GUYER/GRAMS.. 02/24/2016ATTN...WFO...AKQ...MHX...RAH...ILM... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brick Tamland Posted February 24, 2016 Share Posted February 24, 2016 How does the rising temps and clear skies affect the intensity of the storm. It is really sunny here. Makes things more unstable and better for storms. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JasonOH Posted February 24, 2016 Share Posted February 24, 2016 80/60 probs on new watch Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
downeastnc Posted February 24, 2016 Share Posted February 24, 2016 Pretty high probs with this warning outlines of the counties contained in it. Tornadoes Probability of 2 or more tornadoes High (80%) Probability of 1 or more strong (F2-F5) tornadoes Mod (60%) Wind Probability of 10 or more severe wind events Mod (60%) Probability of 1 or more wind events > 65 knots Low (20%) Hail Probability of 10 or more severe hail events Low (20%) Probability of 1 or more hailstones > 2 inches Low (10%) Combined Severe Hail/Wind Probability of 6 or more combined severe hail/wind events High (80% Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brick Tamland Posted February 24, 2016 Share Posted February 24, 2016 80/60 probs on new watch Does that mean 80% chance of tornadoes and 60% chance they are strong? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stebaney Posted February 24, 2016 Share Posted February 24, 2016 Makes things more unstable and better for storms. First, I don't know why I put that little smiley thing beside my comment because it makes no sense. Second, I understand it makes things more unstable but how? If there is no concise answer in laymen's terms than I will just go with it makes things more unstable. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JasonOH Posted February 24, 2016 Share Posted February 24, 2016 Does that mean 80% chance of tornadoes and 60% chance they are strong? 80% chance of 2 or more tornadoes, 60% 1 or more Is strong. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brick Tamland Posted February 24, 2016 Share Posted February 24, 2016 First, I don't know why I put that little smiley thing beside my comment because it makes no sense. Second, I understand it makes things more unstable but how? If there is no concise answer in laymen's terms than I will just go with it makes things more unstable. I think the easy way to describe it is the heat and humidity makes the atmosphere boil up and eventually it reaches a point where it explodes. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
fountainguy97 Posted February 24, 2016 Share Posted February 24, 2016 First, I don't know why I put that little smiley thing beside my comment because it makes no sense. Second, I understand it makes things more unstable but how? If there is no concise answer in laymen's terms than I will just go with it makes things more unstable. Basically the clearing allows the sun to filter down to the surface basically "charging" the air below the clouds with energy. The storms can then use this energy to strengthen and sustain themselves. So the more sun the more 'instability' and the stronger and more persistent the storms and yes "basically" is my favorite word Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mountain Dew Posted February 24, 2016 Share Posted February 24, 2016 Probably still have about an hour before the line rolls through here in Charlotte, but sky's have cleared up again and wind is roaring from the ESE. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jburns Posted February 24, 2016 Share Posted February 24, 2016 Sun is out in Moncure. Not working? Are you going to chase? Could get interesting. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brick Tamland Posted February 24, 2016 Share Posted February 24, 2016 WRAL reporting a tornado was spotted in Grey's Creek in Cumberland County, NC. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PGM Posted February 24, 2016 Share Posted February 24, 2016 Supercells firing up on the west end of Tornado Watch 26 will need to be watched closely as they move into the favorable env. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
frazdaddy Posted February 24, 2016 Share Posted February 24, 2016 Not working? Are you going to chase? Could get interesting. I'm at work 8^( (Famers daughter update.) Wish I could, we would be in the wind sir. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Solak Posted February 24, 2016 Share Posted February 24, 2016 Starting to hear lots of thunder off to the South from the Fayetteville complex moving up this way Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
downeastnc Posted February 24, 2016 Share Posted February 24, 2016 Starting to hear lots of thunder off to the South from the Fayetteville complex moving up this way New couplet forming quickly between Wade and Spivey Corner Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wncsnow Posted February 24, 2016 Share Posted February 24, 2016 Storms near Hickory bear watching starting to show weak rotation EDIT: Boom Tornado warning for area Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cold Rain Posted February 24, 2016 Share Posted February 24, 2016 First, I don't know why I put that little smiley thing beside my comment because it makes no sense. Second, I understand it makes things more unstable but how? If there is no concise answer in laymen's terms than I will just go with it makes things more unstable. Essentially, the warmer and moister the air is at the surface, the more buoyant it will be. The more energy with which the air can rise the stronger the thunderstorm updrafts will be, which increases the strength/severity of the storm. Stronger heating basically increases the available energy of the atmosphere. More heating = more available energy = stronger storms = greater risk of severe weather/tornadoes. Does that help? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RubiksDestroyer Posted February 24, 2016 Share Posted February 24, 2016 Sorry if this sounds banterish but I just alerted my school admins before the watch was officially placed. Lol... Been looking out the window at my school, and there's a lot of scud/low-level clouds moving through (in Hillsborough). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nrgjeff Posted February 24, 2016 Share Posted February 24, 2016 HRRR seems to be struggling with Piedmont line. Nowcast is obvious it will include tornadoes. HRRR shows the reflectivity but whiffs on low level wind fields. Farthest east batch of storms is still threatening too, and should continue all the way to the coast. It will lay down outflow for the Piedmont line to work with later. I will call the Piedmont line the middle line, relative to a third line western NC. Middle line should be very active Piedmont east. I would chase it, favoring cells on boundary intersections - wedge, warm front, outflow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Dunkman Posted February 24, 2016 Share Posted February 24, 2016 Pretty high probs with this warning Ehh I'd disagree a bit. That's a huge watch area. I guess I'm just surprised they didn't do a separate one for the coastal plain. They have slight, enhanced and moderate risk areas all lumped together in one huge watch. I guess it just shows the lingering uncertainty. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
frazdaddy Posted February 24, 2016 Share Posted February 24, 2016 Essentially, the warmer and moister the air is at the surface, the more buoyant it will be. The more energy with which the air can rise the stronger the thunderstorm updrafts will be, which increases the strength/severity of the storm. Stronger heating basically increases the available energy of the atmosphere. More heating = more available energy = stronger storms = greater risk of severe weather/tornadoes. Does that help? Very nice easy description of CAPE sir. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jshetley Posted February 24, 2016 Share Posted February 24, 2016 That line came through here with torrential rain and winds to 45-50 mph. One big cell north of Hickory and another west of Gastonia now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stebaney Posted February 24, 2016 Share Posted February 24, 2016 Essentially, the warmer and moister the air is at the surface, the more buoyant it will be. The more energy with which the air can rise the stronger the thunderstorm updrafts will be, which increases the strength/severity of the storm. Stronger heating basically increases the available energy of the atmosphere. More heating = more available energy = stronger storms = greater risk of severe weather/tornadoes. Does that help? Very much. It is easier to learn about these storms than the snow events. For me anyway. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TARHEELPROGRAMMER Posted February 24, 2016 Share Posted February 24, 2016 Anyone know what type of map those green and red satellite images are? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jojo762 Posted February 24, 2016 Share Posted February 24, 2016 1630Z expanded the MDT n'ward. SPC also favors the pre frontal (first band) of storms. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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