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Severe Potential Feb 23-24


rolltide_130

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MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0142
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1016 AM CST WED FEB 24 2016

AREAS AFFECTED...EASTERN CAROLINAS

CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH LIKELY

VALID 241616Z - 241745Z

PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...95 PERCENT

SUMMARY...TORNADO RISK WILL EXIST/GRADUALLY INCREASE PARTICULARLY
ACROSS EAST-CENTRAL NC INTO SOUTHEAST VA THROUGH EARLY AFTERNOON. A
RECENTLY ISSUED TORNADO WATCH INCLUDES PORTIONS OF THE REGION...AND
TRENDS WILL OTHERWISE CONTINUE TO BE MONITORED FOR ANY NECESSARY
ADDITIONAL TORNADO WATCH ISSUANCES.

DISCUSSION...A PERSISTENT NNE/SSW-ORIENTED BAND OF CONVECTION ACROSS
EAST-CENTRAL/COASTAL PORTIONS OF NC/SC HAS INTENSIFIED OVER THE PAST
HALF HOUR INCLUDING A COUPLE OF EMBEDDED STRONG SUPERCELLS. A
CONSIDERABLE AMOUNT OF CLOUD COVER PRECEDES THIS CONVECTION...BUT
TEMPERATURES CONTINUE TO WARM INTO THE UPPER 60S F IN CONJUNCTION
WITH MIDDLE 60S F DEWPOINTS...WHICH ARE CONDUCIVE FOR SURFACE-BASED
CONVECTION VIA MODIFIED 12Z OBSERVED/SHORT-TERM SOUNDINGS.
LOW-LEVEL/DEEP-LAYER SHEAR IS WELL-SUPPORTIVE OF A TORNADO
RISK...INCLUDING STRONG TORNADO POTENTIAL...AS ACCENTUATED BY RECENT
350-450 M2/S2 OF 0-1 KM SRH AS PER RALEIGH/MOREHEAD CITY WSR-88D VWP
DATA.

..GUYER/GRAMS.. 02/24/2016


ATTN...WFO...AKQ...MHX...RAH...ILM...

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Pretty high probs with this warning

 

 

outlines of the counties contained in it. Tornadoes
Probability of 2 or more tornadoes

High (80%)

Probability of 1 or more strong (F2-F5) tornadoes

Mod (60%)

Wind
Probability of 10 or more severe wind events

Mod (60%)

Probability of 1 or more wind events > 65 knots

Low (20%)

Hail
Probability of 10 or more severe hail events

Low (20%)

Probability of 1 or more hailstones > 2 inches

Low (10%)

Combined Severe Hail/Wind
Probability of 6 or more combined severe hail/wind events

High (80%

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Makes things more unstable and better for storms.

 

First, I don't know why I put that little smiley thing beside my comment because it makes no sense.

 

Second, I understand it makes things more unstable but how? If there is no concise answer in laymen's terms than I will just go with it makes things more unstable.

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First, I don't know why I put that little smiley thing beside my comment because it makes no sense.

 

Second, I understand it makes things more unstable but how? If there is no concise answer in laymen's terms than I will just go with it makes things more unstable.

 

I think the easy way to describe it is the heat and humidity makes the atmosphere boil up and eventually it reaches a point where it explodes.

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First, I don't know why I put that little smiley thing beside my comment because it makes no sense.

 

Second, I understand it makes things more unstable but how? If there is no concise answer in laymen's terms than I will just go with it makes things more unstable.

Basically the clearing allows the sun to filter down to the surface basically "charging" the air below the clouds with energy. The storms can then use this energy to strengthen and sustain themselves. So the more sun the more 'instability' and the stronger and more persistent the storms

 

and yes "basically" is my favorite word

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First, I don't know why I put that little smiley thing beside my comment because it makes no sense.

 

Second, I understand it makes things more unstable but how? If there is no concise answer in laymen's terms than I will just go with it makes things more unstable.

 

Essentially, the warmer and moister the air is at the surface, the more buoyant it will be.  The more energy with which the air can rise the stronger the thunderstorm updrafts will be, which increases the strength/severity of the storm.  Stronger heating basically increases the available energy of the atmosphere.  More heating = more available energy = stronger storms = greater risk of severe weather/tornadoes.  Does that help?

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HRRR seems to be struggling with Piedmont line. Nowcast is obvious it will include tornadoes. HRRR shows the reflectivity but whiffs on low level wind fields. Farthest east batch of storms is still threatening too, and should continue all the way to the coast. It will lay down outflow for the Piedmont line to work with later.

 

I will call the Piedmont line the middle line, relative to a third line western NC. Middle line should be very active Piedmont east. I would chase it, favoring cells on boundary intersections - wedge, warm front, outflow. 

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Pretty high probs with this warning

 

 

Ehh I'd disagree a bit. That's a huge watch area. I guess I'm just surprised they didn't do a separate one for the coastal plain. They have slight, enhanced and moderate risk areas all lumped together in one huge watch. I guess it just shows the lingering uncertainty.

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Essentially, the warmer and moister the air is at the surface, the more buoyant it will be.  The more energy with which the air can rise the stronger the thunderstorm updrafts will be, which increases the strength/severity of the storm.  Stronger heating basically increases the available energy of the atmosphere.  More heating = more available energy = stronger storms = greater risk of severe weather/tornadoes.  Does that help?

Very nice easy description of CAPE sir.

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Essentially, the warmer and moister the air is at the surface, the more buoyant it will be.  The more energy with which the air can rise the stronger the thunderstorm updrafts will be, which increases the strength/severity of the storm.  Stronger heating basically increases the available energy of the atmosphere.  More heating = more available energy = stronger storms = greater risk of severe weather/tornadoes.  Does that help?

Very much. It is easier to learn about these storms than the snow events. For me anyway.

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