downeastnc Posted February 24, 2016 Share Posted February 24, 2016 Going to be interesting to see what role that large batch of showers over south central NC plays in all this..... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snow haven Posted February 24, 2016 Share Posted February 24, 2016 Temp is 65, dewpoint is 64, and pressure is 29.23 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NCSU_Pi Posted February 24, 2016 Share Posted February 24, 2016 I think a lot of people are not taking this seriously. Wayne County Schools are letting out at 11. Other counties more in the bulls eye are not flinching. Me? I just walked though and took pics of expensive items in my house....just in case. I literally did the same thing last night, just in case. It had been a while. I also uploaded some important digital photos to Flickr. That's a backup I had been putting off for a long time, too. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Disc Posted February 24, 2016 Share Posted February 24, 2016 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
downeastnc Posted February 24, 2016 Share Posted February 24, 2016 Temp to 67, wind really picking up gusting into the 20-30 mph range now..... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
downeastnc Posted February 24, 2016 Share Posted February 24, 2016 Those cells out in front especially the one just south of Goldsboro would be the one to really watch.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
goldman75 Posted February 24, 2016 Share Posted February 24, 2016 68 temp 63 dew point 29.76 pressure and a 15mph south wind ATM in myrtle beach Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cold Rain Posted February 24, 2016 Share Posted February 24, 2016 Going to be interesting to see what role that large batch of showers over south central NC plays in all this..... Will probably work over the atmosphere. Certainly will keep the sun in for quite a while. We'll probably look back on this and thank that batch for moving through. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowlover91 Posted February 24, 2016 Share Posted February 24, 2016 Will probably work over the atmosphere. Certainly will keep the sun in for quite a while. We'll probably look back on this and thank that batch for moving through. It's actually expected to cause some drying out behind it which would bring the sun out. HRRR brings sun out for Raleigh starting around 11:30 with just scattered clouds until the storms move in. Takes our temps into the low 70s and a few areas mid-70s. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NCSU_Pi Posted February 24, 2016 Share Posted February 24, 2016 Wife says the sun is out down in Wilmington :-| Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jburns Posted February 24, 2016 Share Posted February 24, 2016 So it looks like areas like CLT and GSO will be dodging a huge bullet. My best wishes goes out to those out east. A bit early to say that. My wind has shifted to the south and my temp has gone up 8º in the last hour. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cold Rain Posted February 24, 2016 Share Posted February 24, 2016 It's actually expected to cause some drying out behind it which would bring the sun out. HRRR brings sun out for Raleigh starting around 11:30 with just scattered clouds until the storms move in. Takes our temps into the low 70s and a few areas mid-70s. Hmmmm....ok. What's the best non-pay link to the HRRR? I'll just look at it, instead of making wild speculation. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brick Tamland Posted February 24, 2016 Share Posted February 24, 2016 Will probably work over the atmosphere. Certainly will keep the sun in for quite a while. We'll probably look back on this and thank that batch for moving through. It's actually expected to cause some drying out behind it which would bring the sun out. HRRR brings sun out for Raleigh starting around 11:30 with just scattered clouds until the storms move in. Takes our temps into the low 70s and a few areas mid-70s. Isn't that what happened yesterday in LA? Folks were hoping the early showers would calm things down, but it ended up making it worse. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nrgjeff Posted February 24, 2016 Share Posted February 24, 2016 Lead line should be the best chance of tornadoes. Pattern recognition favors it. High Res models also favor the lead line. NAM has best 925 mb winds, a proxy for mesocyclones, lead line. HRRR reflectivity appears to favor back line, but HRRR updraft helicity is best lead line. Also HRRR will become more valuable 15Z run and later. 12Z hi-res NAM looks good attm. Of course either line will have all severe threats. I'd just chase the lead line. Appears visibility will be reasonable lead, but vis will be better back line. Since I'm virtual desk chasing I have the freedom to switch horses midway through, lol. Like SPC switching to 15% TOR for the MDT risk. No clear 45% wind with a broken line. Warm front and wedge both retreating remind me of a Plains outflow boundary and warm front. Lots of intersecting boundaries are in play today. Also have a pre-frontal trough ahead of cold front. For chasing I might favor the OFB Plains I like the warm front at least early today. Basically I like the more south one. Wedge might be a focus later if enough clearing. Look for the intersection of the WF and pre-frontal trough if chasing. Said intersection triggered the first SC tornado warning today. Again retreating wedge may be a bigger threat later this afternoon. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MUWX Posted February 24, 2016 Share Posted February 24, 2016 Hmmmm....ok. What's the best non-pay link to the HRRR? I'll just look at it, instead of making wild speculation. Tropical tidbits HRRR is pretty decent Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
poptones Posted February 24, 2016 Share Posted February 24, 2016 This lead shower is bringing some pretty decent gusts to downtown Raleigh Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Poimen Posted February 24, 2016 Share Posted February 24, 2016 The wind is ripping here without any precip. Of course, my place is most vulnerable to a south wind, but it's causing this old building to make some noises every now and again. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cat Posted February 24, 2016 Share Posted February 24, 2016 I'm in Lincolnton NC 40 miles NW of CLT. The temperature went up so quickly, along with dew points, the outside panes on my windows fogged up. We started the morning in the low 40s. We are now at 60 with steadily increasing winds. In and out of sunshine right now. Sent from my iPad using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Solak Posted February 24, 2016 Share Posted February 24, 2016 RAH update... AS OF 956 AM WEDNESDAY... ...STRONG WINDS AND SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS LIKELY TODAY... WEDGE HAS ERODED OUT OF ALL BUT THE FAR NORTHWEST PIEDMONT COUNTIES THIS MORNING...SETTING TABLE FOR SOME MODEST DESTABILIZATION HEADING INTO THE AFTERNOON. WINDS HAVE BEEN ON THE UPTICK DUE TO THE MIXING ...WITH GUSTS EXCEEDING 30 MPH BECOMING MORE NUMEROUS. SOME MINOR UPDATES TO REFLECT TIMING OF THESE TRENDS ARE IN ORDER...OTHERWISE THE SEVERE THREAT IS ON TRACK PER DISCUSSION BELOW. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cold Rain Posted February 24, 2016 Share Posted February 24, 2016 Tropical tidbits HRRR is pretty decent Thanks! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Solak Posted February 24, 2016 Share Posted February 24, 2016 MHX has a more lengthy update... ***MOST OF EASTERN NC IS IN A MODERATE THREAT FOR SEVERE WEATHERWITH THE REMAINDER IN AN ENHANCED RISK***STILL LOOKS LIKE A MAJOR SEVERE WEATHER OUTBREAK ON TRACK FORTODAY AS STRONG DYNAMICS/KINEMATICS OVERSPREAD AN INCREASINGLYMOIST AND UNSTABLE AIRMASS ACROSS CENTRAL AND EASTERN NC. BECAUSEOF THIS THE SPC HAS EXPANDED THE MODERATE SEVERE WEATHER OUTLOOKFURTHER EAST ACROSS MOST OF EASTERN NC FOR THIS AFTERNOON/EVENING.THIS MEANS THAT THERE IS A GOOD CHANCE OF A HIGH END SEVEREWEATHER EVENT ACROSS THE AREA (>=EF2 TORNADO AND WIND GUSTS INEXCESS OF 70 MPH).THE WARM FRONT HAS MOVED NORTHWEST THROUGH THE AREA AND HASSCOURED OUT THE WEDGE AIRMASS WITH SOUTHEASTERLY SURFACE WINDS ANDTEMPERATURES WARMING THROUGH THE 60S. STRONG VERTICALLY ALIGNEDLOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE FROM THE TN/OHIO VALLEY REGION TO THELOWER GREAT LAKES THROUGH TONIGHT. ONGOING CONVECTION APPEARS TOBE ASSOCIATED WITH NOSE OF LOW LEVEL JET SURGING ACROSS THE MIDATLANTIC THIS MORNING. THIS ACTIVITY SHOULD PERSIST THROUGH ABOUT16Z THEN WE SHOULD GET ABOUT A 2 HOUR REPREIVE/TIME FOR THEATMOSPHERE TO RECOVER/ BEFORE STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMSDEVELOP IN A REGION OF BROAD SURFACE CONFLUENCE ACROSSCENTRAL/EASTERN NC WELL IN ADVANCE OF THE SURFACE COLD FRONT.WIND FIELDS WILL BE INCREASING THIS AFTERNOON-EARLY EVENING WITHTHE 850 MB JET EXPECTED AROUND 70 KT AND THE 500 MB JET AROUND 100KT! THIS IN CONJUNCTION WITH STRONG WARM ADVECTION WILL LEAD TOFORCING FOR STRONG ASCENT AND THIS SHOULD HELP TO OVERCOME ANYINHIBITING FACTORS FROM THIS MORNINGS CONVECTION/CLOUD COVER.FORECAST LI`S DROP TO -3/-5 AND MUCAPES 500/1000 J/KG WITH ALLTHE SHEAR PARAMETERS OFF THE CHARTS INDICATING THE LIKELIHOOD OFSUPERCELL THUNDERSTORMS THAT WOULD SUPPORT TORNADO-GENESIS. THESPC TORNADO CLIMO WHISKER PLOTS BASED OFF THE 12 KM-NAM SUPPORTTHE POTENTIAL FOR A EF2-EF3 TORNADO. THE HIGH RESOLUTION WRF-NMMMAND NSSL-WRF ALSO INDICATE THAT CONVECTIVE MODE WILL INITIALIZE ASSUPERCELLS AFTER 18Z THEN TRANSITION TO BOWING LINES/SEGMENTSESPECIALLY ALONG THE APPROACHING COLD FRONT AFTER 00Z. MAINTHREATS WILL BE DAMAGING WIND GUSTS AND ISOLATED TORNADOES.TIMING OF BEST SEVERE WEATHER THREAT WILL BE 18Z-03Z WITH THREATBEGINNING OVER THE COASTAL PLAIN THEN ENDING ALONG THE OUTER BANKSLATER THIS EVENING. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
janetjanet998 Posted February 24, 2016 Share Posted February 24, 2016 winds are alot more unidirectional in the developing warm sector today....behind the first batch of showers/storms storm shape also supports this Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Disc Posted February 24, 2016 Share Posted February 24, 2016 Hmmmm....ok. What's the best non-pay link to the HRRR? I'll just look at it, instead of making wild speculation. WeatherBell has it for free. http://weather.graphics/hrrr.php Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stump Posted February 24, 2016 Share Posted February 24, 2016 That is a LOT of clearing and sunshine behind this first batch of rain. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brick Tamland Posted February 24, 2016 Share Posted February 24, 2016 That is a LOT of clearing and sunshine behind this first batch of rain. I think having rain then sun is worse than if we didn't have the first wave of rain. Makes things more humid and the atmosphere more "soupy". Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nrgjeff Posted February 24, 2016 Share Posted February 24, 2016 College of DuPage Meteorology has a good model page http://weather.cod.edu/forecast/ with lots of HRRR and other hi-res goodies. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
downeastnc Posted February 24, 2016 Share Posted February 24, 2016 Good sat loop for NC to use today http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/east/wfo/rah/mflash-vis.html Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brick Tamland Posted February 24, 2016 Share Posted February 24, 2016 Wake County schools closing 3 hours early. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JasonOH Posted February 24, 2016 Share Posted February 24, 2016 Will probably work over the atmosphere. Certainly will keep the sun in for quite a while. We'll probably look back on this and thank that batch for moving through. Hands down Pivotalweather.com now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Solak Posted February 24, 2016 Share Posted February 24, 2016 More from MHX 1019 AM EST WED FEB 24 2016...AN OUTBREAK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WITH THE POTENTIAL FOREXTREME WIND GUSTS IN EXCESS OF 70 MPH AND ISOLATED STRONGTORNADOES IS EXPECTED TODAY ACROSS EASTERN NORTH CAROLINA...STRONG WIND SHEAR, DEEP MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY WILL COMBINEOVER EASTERN NORTH CAROLINA THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING AS A STRONGCOLD FRONT APPROACHES THEN MOVES THROUGH THE AREA. THIS WILL LEADTO THE DEVELOPMENT OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS EASTERN NORTHCAROLINA AROUND 1 PM THIS AFTERNOON WITH ACTIVITY CONTINUINGACROSS THE REGION UNTIL AROUND 10 PM THIS EVENING.THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING WIND GUSTS OF 70 TO ASMUCH AS 100 MPH THAT COULD PRODUCE DAMAGE SIMILAR TO A TORNADO.ISOLATED STRONG TORNADOES ARE ALSO POSSIBLE WITH WINDS IN EXCESSOF 100 MPH. THIS COULD RESULT IN SIGNIFICANT STRUCTURAL DAMAGE ANDDOWNED TREES AND POWER LINES. PEOPLE ARE ADVISED TO REACT TO ANYSEVERE THUNDERSTORM OR TORNADO WARNINGS WITH THE HIGHEST URGENCYDUE TO THE POTENTIAL FOR SIGNIFICANT IMPACTS.WE EXPECT THAT A SEVERE WEATHER WATCH WILL BE ISSUED THISAFTERNOON. A WATCH MEANS THAT CONDITIONS ARE FAVORABLE FOR SEVEREWEATHER TO DEVELOP IN AND NEAR THE WATCH AREA AND PEOPLE SHOULDBEGIN TO MONITOR WEATHER CONDITIONS CLOSELY.IF SEVERE WEATHER IS IMMINENT, WARNINGS WILL BE ISSUED ANDRESIDENTS SHOULD THEN SEEK SHELTER IN A SAFE LOCATION IMMEDIATELY. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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