ClicheVortex2014 Posted February 24, 2016 Share Posted February 24, 2016 Hey guys... Latest HRRR is INSANE... Even stronger than nam.... And has an absolutely scary line moving into central nc Scary as long as they're supercells and not a line. Verbatim, the southern cells are probably supercells... seems to get more questionable up north. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
fountainguy97 Posted February 24, 2016 Share Posted February 24, 2016 Any storm tomorrow could easily bring 75+ mph winds tornadoes are the main threat but a Bowing line tmrw could easily get 80-100mph winds in it. Maybe even more Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ClicheVortex2014 Posted February 24, 2016 Share Posted February 24, 2016 I think they're gonna wait for the 12z NAM to release the day 1 outlook... sheesh. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snowless in Carrollton Posted February 24, 2016 Share Posted February 24, 2016 This is pretty pathetic. We can't even get a tornado watch while in an enhanced risk. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
fountainguy97 Posted February 24, 2016 Share Posted February 24, 2016 This is pretty pathetic. We can't even get a tornado watch while in an enhanced risk. They just posted some didn't they? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snowless in Carrollton Posted February 24, 2016 Share Posted February 24, 2016 They just posted some didn't they? Yeah for Central GA lol. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MUWX Posted February 24, 2016 Share Posted February 24, 2016 Spc going with a small moderate risk for parts of eastern Virginia and North Carolina. The moderate risk is for winds, not tornadoes. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
5statewx Posted February 24, 2016 Share Posted February 24, 2016 MDT Riskhttp://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/outlook/day1otlk_1200.gif?1456294262302 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ClicheVortex2014 Posted February 24, 2016 Share Posted February 24, 2016 Sounds like they think the storm mode may inhibit the potential from being fully realized DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOKNWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK1204 AM CST WED FEB 24 2016VALID 241200Z - 251200Z...THERE IS A MDT RISK OF SVR TSTMS FOR PORTIONS OF CNTRL NC AND FARS-CNTRL VA......THERE IS AN ENH RISK OF SVR TSTMS SURROUNDING THE MDT RISK FROMFAR NE SC NEWD INTO SE VA......THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS FROM THE CNTRL FL PENINSULANEWD INTO THE DELMARVA......THERE IS A MRGL RISK OF SVR TSTMS OVER PORTIONS OF FL AND THE ERNSEABOARD......SUMMARY...STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS CAPABLE OF DAMAGING WINDS AREFORECAST FROM THE MID-ATLANTIC STATES SOUTHWARD THROUGH THECAROLINAS AND INTO FLORIDA TODAY. HIGHEST THREAT FOR SEVERE WEATHERWILL BE FROM CENTRAL NORTH CAROLINA NORTHEASTWARD INTO FAR SOUTHEASTVIRGINA....SYNOPSIS...MATURE CYCLONE IS EXPECTED TO BE CENTERED NEAR THE CONFLUENCE OF THEOH AND MS RIVERS AT THE BEGINNING OF THE PERIOD...WITH A GENERALLYNEWD MOTION ACROSS THE OH VALLEY AND INTO THE LWR GREAT LAKESEXPECTED THROUGHOUT THE DAY AND OVERNIGHT. POWERFUL MID-LEVEL JETACCOMPANYING THIS SYSTEM /WITH 500-MB WINDS OVER 100 KT/ WILL PIVOTAROUND THE LOW...RESULTING IN STRONG FORCING FOR ASCENT ACROSS THECAROLINAS AND MID-ATLANTIC DURING AFTERNOON. CONTINUED NWD MOTION OFTHE JET WILL TAKE THIS STRONG FORCING INTO THE NORTHEAST DURING THEEVENING AND OVERNIGHT. SURFACE LOW ASSOCIATED WITH THIS SYSTEM WILLMOVE FROM ITS INITIAL POSITION OVER WRN KY NEWD ACROSS THE OH VALLEYAND LWR GREAT LAKES REGION WHILE DEEPENING. WLY POSITION OF THISSURFACE LOW COUPLED WITH THE STRONG LOW-LEVEL FLOW ASSOCIATED WITHTHE MATURE CYCLONE WILL RESULT IN STRONG WARM AIR AND MOISTUREADVECTION ACROSS CNTRL AND ERN PORTIONS OF THE MID-ATLANTIC ANDCAROLINAS....MID-ATLANTIC...CAROLINAS...00Z SOUNDINGS AT GSO...RNK...AND IAD SAMPLED THE WEDGE FRONT WELLWITH TEMPERATURES IN THE 40S AND A LOW-LEVEL INVERSION IN PLACE TOABOUT 850 MB. GIVEN THE STRENGTH OF WAA EXPECTED DURING THEDAY...THE TYPICALLY STUBBORN WEDGE FRONT WILL LIKELY ERODE BY THEEARLY AFTERNOON...REPLACED BY WARM AND MOIST AIRMASS CHARACTERIZEDBY TEMPERATURES IN THE UPPER 60S/LOW 70S...DEWPOINTS IN THE MID60S...AND MLCAPE AROUND 500-1000 J PER KG. THIS UNSTABLE AIRMASS ISEXPECTED TO BE IN PLACE AHEAD OF THE FORCING FOR ASCENT ASSOCIATEDWITH THE APPROACHING MID-LEVEL JET.STRONG LOW-LEVEL WIND FIELDS /70 KT AT 850 MB/ WILL LIKELY BE INPLACE BY THE LATE MORNING WITH THE STRONG MID/UPPER LEVEL WINDSFOLLOWING BY THE EARLY AFTERNOON. AS A RESULT...AN IMPRESSIVEKINEMATIC ENVIRONMENT WILL EXIST DURING THE AFTERNOON. GUIDANCESUGGESTS A LARGE AREA WILL 0-6 KM BULK SHEAR GREATER THAN 60 KT WITHMEAN STORM MOTIONS LIKELY OVER 50 KT ACROSS MUCH OF THE REGION ASWELL. THERE IS SOME BACKING IN THE MID/UPPER LEVELS OF THE WINDPROFILES...SUGGESTING THE PRIMARY STORM MODE WILL BE BOWING LINESEGMENTS/CLUSTERS. A FEW DISCRETE SUPERCELLS ARE ALSO POSSIBLE.GIVEN THE STRENGTH OF THE FLOW AND THE ANTICIPATED STORM MODE...THE PRIMARY SEVERE THREAT WILL BE STRONG WIND GUSTS...WITH SOMEGUSTS OVER 65 KT POSSIBLE. A STRONG TORNADO OR TWO IS ALSO POSSIBLEGIVEN THE STRENGTH OF THE LOW-LEVEL FLOW AND EXPECTATION OF AT LEASTMODEST SURFACE-BASED INSTABILITY. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jojo762 Posted February 24, 2016 Share Posted February 24, 2016 This has the feel of an outlook that is going to change remarkably in one direction or the other by 1630Z, when we have a much better idea of how it is all going to pan out. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
andyhb Posted February 24, 2016 Share Posted February 24, 2016 That line in the FL Panhandle/SW GA isn't a line anymore. Looks to be breaking into semi-discrete supercells. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ClicheVortex2014 Posted February 24, 2016 Share Posted February 24, 2016 That line in the FL Panhandle/SW GA isn't a line anymore. Looks to be breaking into semi-discrete supercells. Yup. Also a bunch of cells coming in off the Gulf that are in a very favorable environment. Still amazes me that we're talking about tornadic supercells in the middle of a February night. Time to sleep. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jon Posted February 24, 2016 Share Posted February 24, 2016 HRRR following SPC's lead with STP pronounced along around around I-95. A few blips in Wake County but main threat doesn't seem to extend much west of US-1. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IWC Posted February 24, 2016 Share Posted February 24, 2016 I would like to take the time to thank all the posters from other areas helping with this outbreak in the SE Forum. Also as everyone knows their is a Subscription Drive going on! PLEASE Donate to help keep this board alive and well for another year... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mackerel_sky Posted February 24, 2016 Share Posted February 24, 2016 Wedge holding strong here! Temp has only risen 4 degrees since 11pm. Currently 51 and have not had a thunderstorm all night! Timing has helped, the wind energy for the rest of today and through tomorrow , combined with soggy soils, will probably down a few trees Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Shawn Posted February 24, 2016 Share Posted February 24, 2016 Garbage event around here. Back to bed I go. We never get anything fun around these parts. Again. can't wait to leave this stupid area. Southeast garbage. Just enough lightning to ruin a lake day always. And always just enough warmth/wedge erosion in CAE to ruin Wintry weather. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Moonhowl Posted February 24, 2016 Share Posted February 24, 2016 Wedge holding strong here! Temp has only risen 4 degrees since 11pm. Currently 51 and have not had a thunderstorm all night! Timing has helped, the wind energy for the rest of today and through tomorrow , combined with soggy soils, will probably down a few trees Wedge holding here for now; 44 degrees IMBY but was awoken by thunder last night with some downpours. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
fountainguy97 Posted February 24, 2016 Share Posted February 24, 2016 Just checked HRRR and almost missed this..... Wow look at those cells.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
kvegas-wx Posted February 24, 2016 Share Posted February 24, 2016 A couple of big boomers around 4am as some heavier storms raced by the triad. But the show looks to be east later today. Back to soggy dog feet and muddy floors I go. Sunday sunny cant get here fast enough! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brick Tamland Posted February 24, 2016 Share Posted February 24, 2016 Garbage event around here. Back to bed I go. We never get anything fun around these parts. Again. can't wait to leave this stupid area. Southeast garbage. Just enough lightning to ruin a lake day always. And always just enough warmth/wedge erosion in CAE to ruin Wintry weather. Not sure it was fun for the people hit by a tornado. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brick Tamland Posted February 24, 2016 Share Posted February 24, 2016 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
downeastnc Posted February 24, 2016 Share Posted February 24, 2016 I must be right under the warm front now, temp was 60 at my house east of Greenville and at the plant it was 54, winds shifting SE at the airport how far inland this warm front gets will make or break the event in NC today..... also at least IMBY we have had tons of rain this month over 10" and the ground is soaked, even the showers we have had has left standing water in yards etc.....winds will go for 45-50 mph today without storms and there may be a lot of trees down, it wont take much with the ground this wet. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NavarreDon Posted February 24, 2016 Share Posted February 24, 2016 Good luck to all the east coast members in the path of severe weather today. Yesterday was a wild ride on the gulf coast. Mother Nature and her miracles never cease however as according to local media reports there have been no serious injuries or fatalities from the Pensacola tornado. Thoughts & Prayers to the families affected west of us. As posted before thank you to all, especially those who came from other sub forums to input analysis. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Poimen Posted February 24, 2016 Share Posted February 24, 2016 Really concerned for my backyard as we seem to be in the most favored locale for tornadic supercells early this afternoon. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
downeastnc Posted February 24, 2016 Share Posted February 24, 2016 Really concerned for my backyard as we seem to be in the most favored locale for tornadic supercells early this afternoon. Depends on the warm front, right along and south of it gonna be nasty.....should be a few cells anchored to it and moving right along it that could be the worst ones of the day.....so where ever it is around 12-12 today should be in trouble and then from there east the cells will have prime conditions Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Solak Posted February 24, 2016 Share Posted February 24, 2016 Yesterday's storm reports. http://www.spc.noaa.gov/climo/reports/yesterday.html Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Solak Posted February 24, 2016 Share Posted February 24, 2016 Front is edging inland ... 60 in Goldsboro, 52 here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Solak Posted February 24, 2016 Share Posted February 24, 2016 The storm W of Wilmington might be the first player of the day. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
downeastnc Posted February 24, 2016 Share Posted February 24, 2016 The storm W of Wilmington might be the first player of the day. Rotation is building in it fast, if it goes its a bad sign IMO as it shows just how easily they spin up today......couplet strengthening every scan Headed for the Wallace-Rose Hill section of I-40 too the most populated part of that area.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snow haven Posted February 24, 2016 Share Posted February 24, 2016 61 degrees here currently Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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