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Severe Potential Feb 23-24


rolltide_130

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looks like Reed is on the way to NC tomorrow going to be an interesting day.

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Talked to my daughter earlier, she and her husband are ok, but they are down in a subdivision close to where those apt buildings are..about a mile off the main road there.  She says there are trees blocking the road, no way to get in or out, and no power...she's scared to death.  My husband , other daughter and son in law are going to try and get to them to bring them out , walking i assume, to come stay with us...fingers crossed they find a way to get to them.   

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Talked to my daughter earlier, she and her husband are ok, but they are down in a subdivision close to where those apt buildings are..about a mile off the main road there.  She says there are trees blocking the road, no way to get in or out, and no power...she's scared to death.  My husband , other daughter and son in law are going to try and get to them to bring them out , walking i assume, to come stay with us...fingers crossed they find a way to get to them.   

Glad that they are okay !! 

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EMS crews will probably be up all night. Won't know true extent of the damage until daybreak

Hopefully tomorrow isn't too bad for NC, but we'll see what happens.

8f4d179abba007969e982770043284e4.png

oh my... Practically a bullseye for the most populated parts of NC. Raleigh-Durham.
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Glad to hear your family is OK there.  Quite different than the practically-a-party atmosphere we had in Tallahassee after a hurricane - we were completely blocked in by downed trees, but no injuries or major damage on our block.  It was seriously inconvenient but not terrifying.

 

EMS traffic is that three buildings are "down"  " on the ground" (didn't get the complex name involved), and as of about five minutes ago there were no patients "yet".  The walking wounded had left on the bus or other transportation, and digging hadn't yet pulled anyone out.  Suggestion was just made to send a couple of light trucks to the GE plant to search the debris field there.

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I don't think the nam verifies, I feel like it overdid today until the last second, and have no reason to believe it won't happen again. It doesn't seem to be handling convection too well right now.

Well we have HRRR and RAP backing up NAM's solution. RAP is most conservative, which seems to be typical, but still showing ~4 STP.

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Well we have HRRR and RAP backing up NAM's solution. RAP is most conservative, which seems to be typical, but still showing ~4 STP.

That's the problem, I have the feeling it's overdone, like today, but who knows. Crazy uncle NAM hits the jackpot every once in a while.

 

Edit: One thing I see is the storm motions on the NAM 4K, at 68 knots, which does not at all make sense to me.  That is my main reason to question the quality of the soundings.

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Talked to my daughter earlier, she and her husband are ok, but they are down in a subdivision close to where those apt buildings are..about a mile off the main road there.  She says there are trees blocking the road, no way to get in or out, and no power...she's scared to death.  My husband , other daughter and son in law are going to try and get to them to bring them out , walking i assume, to come stay with us...fingers crossed they find a way to get to them.   

 

Hope all goes well for you and your family.

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That's the problem, I have the feeling it's overdone, like today, but who knows. Crazy uncle NAM hits the jackpot every once in a while.

 

Even if it was overdone, it was still quite a significant event. I think the EML might be a bigger player tomorrow, as it's been mentioned that highs in the upper 80's and higher across S TX can often indicate a stronger capping inversion in SE outbreaks the following day. If that does come into play I wouldn't be surprised if tomorrow doesn't match today or even top it in number of reports.  

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That's the problem, I have the feeling it's overdone, like today, but who knows. Crazy uncle NAM hits the jackpot every once in a while.

Nam did well today. Here was yesterday's 00z run for the south today.. Notice the STP is 1-2 max and confined to Gulf Coast. Nam for tomorrow is forecasting widespread 4+ indices, it's going to be much worse in NC if this verifies.

post-2321-0-25367300-1456287440_thumb.jp

And here is 00z tonight by the nam for NC.

post-2321-0-16357200-1456287703_thumb.jp

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One thing I forgot to note was that 0z came back.  I was more referencing the runs from before that.  I have concerns (storm speed mainly), but I definately see a major severe weather event barring moisture return issues due to convection to the south.  Even if CAPE stays down below 1500, I think it will be a big day.

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