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Severe Potential Feb 23-24


rolltide_130

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yikes

ULLETIN - EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTED  
TORNADO WARNING  
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOBILE AL  
812 PM CST TUE FEB 23 2016  
 
THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN MOBILE HAS ISSUED A  
 
* TORNADO WARNING FOR...  
SOUTH CENTRAL ESCAMBIA COUNTY IN NORTHWESTERN FLORIDA...  
SOUTHEASTERN SANTA ROSA COUNTY IN NORTHWESTERN FLORIDA...  
 
* UNTIL 845 PM CST  
 
* AT 811 PM CST...A LARGE AND EXTREMELY DANGEROUS TORNADO WAS LOCATED  
OVER FERRY PASS...MOVING NORTHEAST AT 50 MPH.  
 
THIS IS A PARTICULARLY DANGEROUS SITUATION.  
 

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.CON.KMOB.TO.W.0023.000000T0000Z-160224T0245Z/  
SANTA ROSA FL-  
823 PM CST TUE FEB 23 2016  
 
...A TORNADO WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 845 PM CST FOR  
NORTHEASTERN SANTA ROSA COUNTY...  
 
AT 823 PM CST...A CONFIRMED LARGE AND EXTREMELY DANGEROUS TORNADO WAS  
LOCATED OVER BAGDAD...MOVING NORTHEAST AT 50 MPH.  
 
THIS IS A PARTICULARLY DANGEROUS SITUATION.

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:yikes:

 

To put things rather bluntly, if the 00z NAM were to verify...there would be a tornado outbreak in NC/VA tomorrow with a few strong/long lived tornadoes. The upper level dynamics look amazing, the instability looks to be sufficient, shear will still be very impressive, and there should be a better shot at more discrete cells than today. 

 

Have to wait for the SPC update and what the RGEM/ECM Para say, but I think tomorrow will be another MDT in regards to TOR probs. 

 

c75fcb608d2deffaa59fad6d3e57cea4.png

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Way to early to say such things, people have a nasty habit of speaking in absolutes when dealing with the weather....I wouldnt want to be on that warm front tomorrow as that may well be where some of the longer lived and stronger tornados occur. I bet this warm front gets further inland than you think...

Another ridiculous wedge here.....what's so darn frustrating is how the CAD always seems to be just weak enough or scoured out in winter systems to prevent winter weather, but come springtime, they are robust to the point of all but eliminating any severe weather threat. I've lived here my whole life and I will speak in absolutes when it comes to late winter, early spring CAD.....don't think I've ever even had a severe storm roll through here with NE winds and 48 degrees.

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I don't have the niche for picking up on severe wx parameters from the models like I do winter weather. But I just saw some post from a guy in rdu who knows his stuff talking about how volatile the nam possibly 18 or 12 z as opposed to the 0z run that should be coming out as I type discussing between GSO and rdu it was a very scary look for tommorow? Anybody else who's not a drive by poster in the svre wx thread here seeing the same thing? Just curious and appreciate your input. I'll be at work during the day 40 miles away from 2 elderly parents and not here on the homestead with my nose to the wind.

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I don't have the niche for picking up on severe wx parameters from the models like I do winter weather. But I just saw some post from a guy in rdu who knows his stuff talking about how volatile the nam possibly 18 or 12 z as opposed to the 0z run that should be coming out as I type discussing between GSO and rdu it was a very scary look for tommorow? Anybody else who's not a drive by poster in the svre wx thread here seeing the same thing? Just curious and appreciate your input. I'll be at work during the day 40 miles away from 2 elderly parents and not here on the homestead with my nose to the wind.

Most recent runs of NAM and HRRR are showing very, very nasty parameters tomorrow for North Carolina. RAP is less robust, but RAP isn't that good of a model IMO.

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Yes, the low has continued to trend west. More of NC is in the game now. 

 

HRRR has some pretty robust parameters by 15z tomorrow 

 

HRRRMA_con_stp_015.png

 

I thought so, it almost looks like the latest models are taking most of the severe to the west of the current Enhanced area on the convective map. Possibly the bulls eye is on HWY1.

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