NavarreDon Posted February 24, 2016 Share Posted February 24, 2016 Hearing first rumbles of thunder over the gulf here in Navarre. This is my location for those not familiar with the Panhandle. Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Solak Posted February 24, 2016 Share Posted February 24, 2016 With temperatures in the low to mid 40s through the North Carolina Piedmont and into upstate South Carolina and Georgia, and the 70s not far south, we can see a bit of a CAD signature. What, if any effect does that have on the severe parameters as they move into the area of that air mass? All the best to the folks experiencing the tornadoes and severe weather tonight. From RAH's disco... THE WARMER AIR JUST ABOVE THE SURFACE WILL AID TO GRADUALLY ERODETHE CAD FROM THE SOUTH SO THAT BY DAYBREAK...EXPECT AWARM...SLIGHTLY UNSTABLE AIR MASS TO COVER MOST OF THESANDHILLS...THE SOUTHERN COASTAL PLAIN AND THE FAR SOUTHERNPIEDMONT. COULD SEE AN ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM OR TWO IN THIS REGIONPRIOR TO DAYBREAK. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TARHEELPROGRAMMER Posted February 24, 2016 Share Posted February 24, 2016 Is the severe threat getting bigger for tomorrow across the coastal plain and sandhills in NC? Or does it look less likely? I know they are closing schools early but wanted to check. I have been moving in deck furniture and haven't really heard much else about the threat here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Superstorm93 Posted February 24, 2016 Share Posted February 24, 2016 Hearing first rumbles of thunder over the gulf here in Navarre. This is my location for those not familiar with the Panhandle. Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk Thankfully, this should pass to your NW Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brick Tamland Posted February 24, 2016 Share Posted February 24, 2016 Sounds like from what I am reading here and other places, it could be just as bad for NC tomorrow. Saw some soundings from the NAM for RDU that are very scary. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Derecho! Posted February 24, 2016 Share Posted February 24, 2016 Wow, pretty extreme TVS out over the open Gulf south of Mobile. Won't be on shore for a long time. Might be a record strength open ocean "waterspout." Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Superstorm93 Posted February 24, 2016 Share Posted February 24, 2016 Is the severe threat getting bigger for tomorrow across the coastal plain and sandhills in NC? Or does it look less likely? I know they are closing schools early but wanted to check. I have been moving in deck furniture and haven't really heard much else about the threat here. With temperatures in the low to mid 40s through the North Carolina Piedmont and into upstate South Carolina and Georgia, and the 70s not far south, we can see a bit of a CAD signature. What, if any effect does that have on the severe parameters as they move into the area of that air mass? All the best to the folks experiencing the tornadoes and severe weather tonight. The CAD signal had been modeled very well by the NAM/4km NAM, but when you have a 988mb low to your west with moisture trajectories flowing in from the Gulf Stream, that quickly gets wiped away. Also, the upper level dynamics will be a little weaker than today, but I would expect one or two strong tornadoes tomorrow in NC during the afternoon. Have to see what the 00z models key in on, but I think tomorrow should be another day with multiple tornado reports. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Superstorm93 Posted February 24, 2016 Share Posted February 24, 2016 Maxed out rotation over the Gulf Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Natester Posted February 24, 2016 Share Posted February 24, 2016 Wow, pretty extreme TVS out over the open Gulf south of Mobile. Won't be on shore for a long time. Might be a record strength open ocean "waterspout." Sucking up lots of sharks and fishes. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PennyForYourThoughts Posted February 24, 2016 Share Posted February 24, 2016 Strong winds here in Santa Rosa County, just to the East of Pensacola, heard a large crack in the back yard, guess we are about ready to lose a big oak tree limb. Lightning towards the gulf, but the wind is just whipping. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jojo762 Posted February 24, 2016 Share Posted February 24, 2016 Maxed out rotation over the Gulf If this continues over land as well, the 23Z HRRR will have been dead on with its UH track for this supercell. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jet Stream Rider Posted February 24, 2016 Share Posted February 24, 2016 From RAH's disco... THE WARMER AIR JUST ABOVE THE SURFACE WILL AID TO GRADUALLY ERODETHE CAD FROM THE SOUTH SO THAT BY DAYBREAK...EXPECT AWARM...SLIGHTLY UNSTABLE AIR MASS TO COVER MOST OF THESANDHILLS...THE SOUTHERN COASTAL PLAIN AND THE FAR SOUTHERNPIEDMONT. COULD SEE AN ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM OR TWO IN THIS REGIONPRIOR TO DAYBREAK. Thanks Solak. That tells us something about timing The CAD signal had been modeled very well by the NAM/4km NAM, but when you have a 988mb low to your west with moisture trajectories flowing in from the Gulf Stream, that quickly gets wiped away. Also, the upper level dynamics will be a little weaker than today, but I would expect one or two strong tornadoes tomorrow in NC during the afternoon. Have to see what the 00z models key in on, but I think tomorrow should be another day with multiple tornado reports. Excellent info and graphics! Thanks for that. Looks mighty wet too. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PGM Posted February 24, 2016 Share Posted February 24, 2016 If this continues over land as well, the 23Z HRRR will have been dead on with its UH track for this supercell. That rotation is going to get quite close to Pensacola. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
janetjanet998 Posted February 24, 2016 Share Posted February 24, 2016 Meso for one cell LOL NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0651 PM CST TUE FEB 23 2016 AREAS AFFECTED...PARTS OF SWRN AL / WRN FL PANHANDLE CONCERNING...TORNADO WATCH 20... VALID 240051Z - 240145Z THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT FOR TORNADO WATCH 20 CONTINUES. SUMMARY...SIGNIFICANT TORNADO POTENTIAL DURING THE NEXT HOUR OR SO NEAR THE AL/FL PANHANDLE BORDER. DISCUSSION...KMOB IMAGERY HAS SHOWN A CYCLIC --LIKELY TORNADIC-- SUPERCELL OVER THE SHELF WATERS S OF MOBILE BAY DURING THE PAST HOUR. THIS INTENSE SUPERCELL HAS DEVELOPED AND MANAGED TO BECOME THE ANCHORING UPDRAFT WITHIN A WARM SECTOR CONVECTIVE CLUSTER. SURFACE CONDITIONS INVOF THE SUPERCELL VIA BUOY AND LAND OBSERVATIONS /NEAR 70 TEMP WITH UPPER 60S DEWPOINT/ SUGGEST THIS SURFACE-BASED SUPERCELL WILL LIKELY REMAIN SURFACE-BASED FOR AT LEAST THE NEXT COUPLE OF HOURS VIA MODEL-BASED PROXIMITY SOUNDINGS. THE VERY STRONG LOW-LEVEL SHEAR NOW EVIDENT ON THE KMOB VAD /0-3 KM SRH AROUND 600 M2 PER S2/ WILL BE SUPPORTIVE OF CONTINUED CYCLING OF THE SUPERCELL AS IT MOVES ASHORE THE AL/FL BORDER VICINITY DURING THE NEXT HOUR. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
metalicwx366 Posted February 24, 2016 Share Posted February 24, 2016 Nothing here so far. The winds are insane outside though. Easily gusting 40-50mph here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NavarreDon Posted February 24, 2016 Share Posted February 24, 2016 This thing just won't quit! Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Superstorm93 Posted February 24, 2016 Share Posted February 24, 2016 HRRR by 14z tomorrow Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Amped Posted February 24, 2016 Share Posted February 24, 2016 This thing just won't quit! Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk Gotta be some sort of a seabreeze front enhancing it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PGM Posted February 24, 2016 Share Posted February 24, 2016 The SPC has decided not to upgrade the tornado risk to 30% hatched at 01z. No high risk. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hvward Posted February 24, 2016 Share Posted February 24, 2016 Nothing like the radar getting struck by lightning just as you reach the couplet lol. Oh well, going to try and catch this cell moving toward Gulf Shores as it possibly moves over Interstate 65 and then it is on to Charlotte. 4km nam has a massive cell near Anson Co. NC tomorrow around 12pm or 1 with 600+ helicity at 0-1km. Looks like a very ripe environment tomorrow and a dangerous day ahead for the eastern half of NC. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JasonOH Posted February 24, 2016 Share Posted February 24, 2016 That beast coming on shore soon seems to be making a beeline for Pennsacola... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
downeastnc Posted February 24, 2016 Share Posted February 24, 2016 Gulf Shores got problems......that is one hell of a couplet. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hvward Posted February 24, 2016 Share Posted February 24, 2016 Nothing here so far. The winds are insane outside though. Easily gusting 40-50mph here.Yeah just drove past Biloxi where we stopped for a second and the surface winds were whipping. Very easy to see why some storms were so efficient today. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
janetjanet998 Posted February 24, 2016 Share Posted February 24, 2016 ULLETIN - EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTED TORNADO WARNING NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOBILE AL 713 PM CST TUE FEB 23 2016 THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN MOBILE HAS ISSUED A * TORNADO WARNING FOR... SOUTHEASTERN BALDWIN COUNTY IN SOUTHWESTERN ALABAMA... SOUTH CENTRAL ESCAMBIA COUNTY IN NORTHWESTERN FLORIDA... * UNTIL 815 PM CST * AT 712 PM CST...A LARGE AND EXTREMELY DANGEROUS TORNADO WAS LOCATED 8 MILES SOUTH OF GULF SHORES...MOVING NORTHEAST AT 40 MPH. THIS IS A PARTICULARLY DANGEROUS SITUATION. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jrips27 Posted February 24, 2016 Share Posted February 24, 2016 PDS Tornado warning for Gulf Shores Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ClicheVortex2014 Posted February 24, 2016 Share Posted February 24, 2016 Easy to say I've never seen that before. PDS warning for a supercell coming onto land. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JasonOH Posted February 24, 2016 Share Posted February 24, 2016 That thing is a beast too. I would keep an eye on the storm just east of it and also the one just north of Robertsdale, AL Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Amped Posted February 24, 2016 Share Posted February 24, 2016 Easy to say I've never seen that before. PDS warning for a supercell coming onto land. Wonder if it really rains fish. I've been waiting to test that myth. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Derecho! Posted February 24, 2016 Share Posted February 24, 2016 I'm wondering if it hit any oil rigs..... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jrips27 Posted February 24, 2016 Share Posted February 24, 2016 http://www.bamabeachcams.com/pinkponypub.aspx Webcam on the beach in Gulf Shores. Near continuous lightning. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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