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Severe Potential Feb 23-24


rolltide_130

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With temperatures in the low to mid 40s through the North Carolina Piedmont and into upstate South Carolina and Georgia, and the 70s not far south, we can see a bit of a CAD signature. What, if any effect does that have on the severe parameters as they move into the area of that air mass?

 

All the best to the folks experiencing the tornadoes and severe weather tonight.

 

 

 

From RAH's disco...

THE WARMER AIR JUST ABOVE THE SURFACE WILL AID TO GRADUALLY ERODETHE CAD FROM THE SOUTH SO THAT BY DAYBREAK...EXPECT AWARM...SLIGHTLY UNSTABLE AIR MASS TO COVER MOST OF THESANDHILLS...THE SOUTHERN COASTAL PLAIN AND THE FAR SOUTHERNPIEDMONT. COULD SEE AN ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM OR TWO IN THIS REGIONPRIOR TO DAYBREAK.
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Is the severe threat getting bigger for tomorrow across the coastal plain and sandhills in NC? Or does it look less likely? I know they are closing schools early but wanted to check. I have been moving in deck furniture and haven't really heard much else about the threat here.

 

With temperatures in the low to mid 40s through the North Carolina Piedmont and into upstate South Carolina and Georgia, and the 70s not far south, we can see a bit of a CAD signature. What, if any effect does that have on the severe parameters as they move into the area of that air mass?

 

All the best to the folks experiencing the tornadoes and severe weather tonight.

 

 

 

The CAD signal had been modeled very well by the NAM/4km NAM, but when you have a 988mb low to your west with moisture trajectories flowing in from the Gulf Stream, that quickly gets wiped away. Also, the upper level dynamics will be a little weaker than today, but I would expect one or two strong tornadoes tomorrow in NC during the afternoon. Have to see what the 00z models key in on, but I think tomorrow should be another day with multiple tornado reports. 

 

38d0cfc486ef5680b53e8002b9727a9a.png

 

54c8cc4251a4dddc60c62c0114d7be22.png

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From RAH's disco...

THE WARMER AIR JUST ABOVE THE SURFACE WILL AID TO GRADUALLY ERODETHE CAD FROM THE SOUTH SO THAT BY DAYBREAK...EXPECT AWARM...SLIGHTLY UNSTABLE AIR MASS TO COVER MOST OF THESANDHILLS...THE SOUTHERN COASTAL PLAIN AND THE FAR SOUTHERNPIEDMONT. COULD SEE AN ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM OR TWO IN THIS REGIONPRIOR TO DAYBREAK.

 

 

Thanks Solak. That tells us something about timing

 

The CAD signal had been modeled very well by the NAM/4km NAM, but when you have a 988mb low to your west with moisture trajectories flowing in from the Gulf Stream, that quickly gets wiped away. Also, the upper level dynamics will be a little weaker than today, but I would expect one or two strong tornadoes tomorrow in NC during the afternoon. Have to see what the 00z models key in on, but I think tomorrow should be another day with multiple tornado reports. 

 

 

 

Excellent info and graphics! Thanks for that. Looks mighty wet too.

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Meso for one cell LOL

 

NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK  
0651 PM CST TUE FEB 23 2016  
 
AREAS AFFECTED...PARTS OF SWRN AL / WRN FL PANHANDLE  
 
CONCERNING...TORNADO WATCH 20...  

 
VALID 240051Z - 240145Z  

 
THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT FOR TORNADO WATCH 20 CONTINUES.  
 
SUMMARY...SIGNIFICANT TORNADO POTENTIAL DURING THE NEXT HOUR OR SO  
NEAR THE AL/FL PANHANDLE BORDER.  
 
DISCUSSION...KMOB IMAGERY HAS SHOWN A CYCLIC --LIKELY TORNADIC--  
SUPERCELL OVER THE SHELF WATERS S OF MOBILE BAY DURING THE PAST  
HOUR. THIS INTENSE SUPERCELL HAS DEVELOPED AND MANAGED TO BECOME  
THE ANCHORING UPDRAFT WITHIN A WARM SECTOR CONVECTIVE CLUSTER.  
SURFACE CONDITIONS INVOF THE SUPERCELL VIA BUOY AND LAND  
OBSERVATIONS /NEAR 70 TEMP WITH UPPER 60S DEWPOINT/ SUGGEST THIS  
SURFACE-BASED SUPERCELL WILL LIKELY REMAIN SURFACE-BASED FOR AT  
LEAST THE NEXT COUPLE OF HOURS VIA MODEL-BASED PROXIMITY SOUNDINGS.  
THE VERY STRONG LOW-LEVEL SHEAR NOW EVIDENT ON THE KMOB VAD /0-3 KM  
SRH AROUND 600 M2 PER S2/ WILL BE SUPPORTIVE OF CONTINUED CYCLING OF  
THE SUPERCELL AS IT MOVES ASHORE THE AL/FL BORDER VICINITY DURING  
THE NEXT HOUR.  

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Nothing like the radar getting struck by lightning just as you reach the couplet lol. Oh well, going to try and catch this cell moving toward Gulf Shores as it possibly moves over Interstate 65 and then it is on to Charlotte. 4km nam has a massive cell near Anson Co. NC tomorrow around 12pm or 1 with 600+ helicity at 0-1km. Looks like a very ripe environment tomorrow and a dangerous day ahead for the eastern half of NC.

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ULLETIN - EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTED  
TORNADO WARNING  
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOBILE AL  
713 PM CST TUE FEB 23 2016  
 
THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN MOBILE HAS ISSUED A  
 
* TORNADO WARNING FOR...  
SOUTHEASTERN BALDWIN COUNTY IN SOUTHWESTERN ALABAMA...  
SOUTH CENTRAL ESCAMBIA COUNTY IN NORTHWESTERN FLORIDA...  
 
* UNTIL 815 PM CST  
 
* AT 712 PM CST...A LARGE AND EXTREMELY DANGEROUS TORNADO WAS LOCATED  
8 MILES SOUTH OF GULF SHORES...MOVING NORTHEAST AT 40 MPH.  
 
THIS IS A PARTICULARLY DANGEROUS SITUATION.  
 

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