EastonSN+ Posted February 22, 2016 Share Posted February 22, 2016 I'm not sure why they come here at all when our weather very rarely is the same. They live in the mid atlantic. Different climates Agreed. But our thread has a huge varience too (ex. Cape Cod vs. Stowe VT) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mreaves Posted February 22, 2016 Share Posted February 22, 2016 Agreed. But our thread has a huge varience too (ex. Cape Cod vs. Stowe VT) Yes, Cape Cod is a much snowier location. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cold Miser Posted February 22, 2016 Share Posted February 22, 2016 Allsnow is a known troll. He probably makes 80-90% of his posts in here when New England is facing snowless prospects. (I'm actually not sure why we still allow his act) We welcome anyone from outside the region who wants to contribute in good faith. Doesn't have to mean you post only positive snow thoughts...but post genuinely. Forky's twin? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted February 22, 2016 Share Posted February 22, 2016 I think I'll take the under on the Ukie/Nam/Rgem. Last week we had much more cold air to overrun and couldn't manage more than 1-2 inches in SNE. I'll take under an inch with a 4-8 hour period of icing depending upon locale. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baroclinic Zone Posted February 22, 2016 Author Share Posted February 22, 2016 I think I'll take the under on the Ukie/Nam/Rgem. Last week we had much more cold air to overrun and couldn't manage more than 1-2 inches in SNE. I'll take under an inch with a 4-8 hour period of icing depending upon locale. I'm still waiting on the 4-6" it had me getting last night from Friday nights model runs. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Southshorewx Posted February 22, 2016 Share Posted February 22, 2016 Yes, Cape Cod is a much snowier location. Almost spit out my coffee laughing at this. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted February 22, 2016 Share Posted February 22, 2016 I think I'll take the under on the Ukie/Nam/Rgem. Last week we had much more cold air to overrun and couldn't manage more than 1-2 inches in SNE. I'll take under an inch with a 4-8 hour period of icing depending upon locale. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted February 22, 2016 Share Posted February 22, 2016 12z NAM is already backing off anyway...it is shunting that batch east a bit and weakening it before it reaches most of SNE save the south coast. I wouldn't expect more than an inch or two on the front. The more impactful aspect of the system could be some prolonged light glazing over the interior. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sugarloaf1989 Posted February 22, 2016 Share Posted February 22, 2016 2" of snow followed by 2" of rain, sign me up. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CT Valley Snowman Posted February 22, 2016 Share Posted February 22, 2016 Nam 4km agressive as usual. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baroclinic Zone Posted February 22, 2016 Author Share Posted February 22, 2016 12z NAM is already backing off anyway...it is shunting that batch east a bit and weakening it before it reaches most of SNE save the south coast. I wouldn't expect more than an inch or two on the front. The more impactful aspect of the system could be some prolonged light glazing over the interior. So you're saying this won't verify... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted February 22, 2016 Share Posted February 22, 2016 So you're saying this won't verify... nam4km_asnow_neus_16.png I would put the odds pretty low. Can't rule it out though...there are sometimes surprises on WAA. I'd like to see some more coherent vort energy running up the east side of the trough. Until then, I'd expect not much snow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted February 22, 2016 Share Posted February 22, 2016 Wouldn't shock me if most places start as straight sleet in SNE Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baroclinic Zone Posted February 22, 2016 Author Share Posted February 22, 2016 I would put the odds pretty low. Can't rule it out though...there are sometimes surprises on WAA. I'd like to see some more coherent vort energy running up the east side of the trough. Until then, I'd expect not much snow. I put the odds at 0% Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted February 22, 2016 Share Posted February 22, 2016 Nam has helluva ice storm in Maine, have to watch low level Mesos over the next few days, been seeing quite bit of Cad up there in the pressure fields. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cold Miser Posted February 22, 2016 Share Posted February 22, 2016 Nam 4km agressive as usual. What's the destination of that low over Louisiana? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baroclinic Zone Posted February 22, 2016 Author Share Posted February 22, 2016 What's the destination of that low over Louisiana? PIT Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted February 22, 2016 Share Posted February 22, 2016 RGEM has a pretty good thump N of the pike and into CNE (like 2-5")...but I'd be cautious given it's the end of the RGEM run, and the model hasn't been doing all that well recently. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted February 22, 2016 Share Posted February 22, 2016 Ice storm coming Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CT Rain Posted February 22, 2016 Share Posted February 22, 2016 NAM has heavy freezing rain at BDL at 8pm Wednesday. That's a nasty look. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tamarack Posted February 22, 2016 Share Posted February 22, 2016 Yes, Cape Cod is a much snowier location. Expect 1-2" SN/IP at best for the foothills, then a few hours of ZR, followed by CAD-destroying torch-deluge. GYX morning AFD whispered 1-3" RA and possible flood/jam warnings. At least the Augusta jam has cleared, though there's one on the Sandy at Center Bridge in Farmington. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brian5671 Posted February 22, 2016 Share Posted February 22, 2016 NAM has heavy freezing rain at BDL at 8pm Wednesday. That's a nasty look. how many times has any location ever seen Heavy freezing rain? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dendrite Posted February 22, 2016 Share Posted February 22, 2016 how many times has any location ever seen Heavy freezing rain? It's not that rare. FZRA intensity is based on liquid equivalent rates...not ice accretion. IOW it's the same as regular rain. +DZ/+FZDZ is different. Drizzle intensity is based on visibility like snow. So you would need a vis of <= 1/4SM to have +FZDZ. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted February 22, 2016 Share Posted February 22, 2016 how many times has any location ever seen Heavy freezing rain?Jan 1994 was insane Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WhiteLawns Posted February 22, 2016 Share Posted February 22, 2016 NAM has heavy freezing rain at BDL at 8pm Wednesday. That's a nasty look. It's not that rare. FZRA intensity is based on liquid equivalent rates...not ice accretion. IOW it's the same as regular rain. +DZ/+FZDZ is different. Drizzle intensity is based on visibility like snow. So you would need a vis of <= 1/4SM to have +FZDZ. Jan 1994 was insane So do we have a possible branch breaking ice storm on our hands? $$$$$ Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted February 22, 2016 Share Posted February 22, 2016 All tossed. All of it Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted February 22, 2016 Share Posted February 22, 2016 So do we have a possible branch breaking ice storm on our hands? $$$$$ No, the high is not in a good spot to replenish low DP polar air...but there is definitely a big CAD signal, so the glazing could last a while before finally flipping. But the heaviest looks to occur after we've latent-heated our way to 32.1F...and then we warm sector shortly after. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CT Rain Posted February 22, 2016 Share Posted February 22, 2016 It's not that rare. FZRA intensity is based on liquid equivalent rates...not ice accretion. IOW it's the same as regular rain. +DZ/+FZDZ is different. Drizzle intensity is based on visibility like snow. So you would need a vis of <= 1/4SM to have +FZDZ. Yeah if you're getting 0.20" an hour of rain and it's 31F it's +FZRA. That said, you may only get a fraction of that to actually ice up. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CT Rain Posted February 22, 2016 Share Posted February 22, 2016 No, the high is not in a good spot to replenish low DP polar air...but there is definitely a big CAD signal, so the glazing could last a while before finally flipping. But the heaviest looks to occur after we've latent-heated our way to 32.1F...and then we warm sector shortly after. Yeah a bit of CAD and some in-situ CAD should be enough for the valleys. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dendrite Posted February 22, 2016 Share Posted February 22, 2016 The NAM is <= 32F at 2m up here right through Thu AM. Assuming the CAD overperforms a bit from that prog there could be some decent glazing...especially in the higher terrain of NH. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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