ORH_wxman Posted March 20, 2016 Share Posted March 20, 2016 So we lost 70 Thurs and Fri? Safe to say. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ineedsnow Posted March 20, 2016 Share Posted March 20, 2016 Box long term discussion looks good for some wintry weather Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted March 20, 2016 Share Posted March 20, 2016 Is there EPS agreement with keeping this week cold and snowy/ icy interior SNE? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted March 20, 2016 Share Posted March 20, 2016 Last week of March through the first week of April looks cold. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dendrite Posted March 21, 2016 Share Posted March 21, 2016 Ice storm city still on the euro up here for Friday. I'd like to see that run verify to see if we could accrete during the day this time of year with the continual LLVL CAA feed. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
powderfreak Posted March 21, 2016 Share Posted March 21, 2016 Ice storm city still on the euro up here for Friday. I'd like to see that run verify to see if we could accrete during the day this time of year with the continual LLVL CAA feed. Oh definitely can...my best ALB ice storm occurred during daylight on April 3rd with 0.75" of ice. Cold deepened so much during the day it actually changed to IP too at times. GFL and RUT had like 18" of snow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dendrite Posted March 21, 2016 Share Posted March 21, 2016 Oh definitely can...my best ALB ice storm occurred during daylight on April 3rd with 0.75" of ice. Cold deepened so much during the day it actually changed to IP too at times. GFL and RUT had like 18" of snow.Oh yeah...I know it can. I've pulled some daylight -ZR April events in recent years. There's a tipping point though. The insitu deals at 30-31F don't cut it this time of year. If we could keep advecting in lower dews and keep it around 28-29F I think it'd be nasty. Insolation isn't usually big deal with these CAD overrunning events. Of course this will probably verify as 45F and rain with a brief warm sector. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted March 21, 2016 Share Posted March 21, 2016 Models going forward looks like a chilly end to March and a cold start to April as well Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted March 21, 2016 Share Posted March 21, 2016 Models going forward looks like a chilly end to March and a cold start to April as well Lets get this again Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OceanStWx Posted March 21, 2016 Share Posted March 21, 2016 Oh yeah...I know it can. I've pulled some daylight -ZR April events in recent years. There's a tipping point though. The insitu deals at 30-31F don't cut it this time of year. If we could keep advecting in lower dews and keep it around 28-29F I think it'd be nasty. Insolation isn't usually big deal with these CAD overrunning events. Of course this will probably verify as 45F and rain with a brief warm sector. Long term guy at this morning's briefing said chance of snow or thunderstorms. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted March 21, 2016 Share Posted March 21, 2016 Long term guy at this morning's briefing said chance of snow or thunderstorms. Silly Ekster. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OceanStWx Posted March 21, 2016 Share Posted March 21, 2016 Silly Ekster. He was still hanging out around briefing time, that was the last straw that sent him running for the parking lot. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baroclinic Zone Posted March 21, 2016 Author Share Posted March 21, 2016 Was he forecasting for GYX or LBF? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OceanStWx Posted March 21, 2016 Share Posted March 21, 2016 I mean that's still a cold, cold look on the EPS. Here's a sampling of 2 m temp forecast highs Thursday. WPC NAM GFS ECMWF Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted March 21, 2016 Share Posted March 21, 2016 Looks like a nice 37 and rain for SNe..awesome Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OceanStWx Posted March 21, 2016 Share Posted March 21, 2016 I'm going to say the Euro comes much closer on the 2 m temps there. I realize those are forecast highs, but the 18z hourly temps don't look much different either. Oddly, WPC is the worst offender trying to drive that warm front north. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OceanStWx Posted March 21, 2016 Share Posted March 21, 2016 The GFS has the right idea, just a poor execution. But we know it doesn't handle low levels that well. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jbenedet Posted March 21, 2016 Share Posted March 21, 2016 I'm going to say the Euro comes much closer on the 2 m temps there. I realize those are forecast highs, but the 18z hourly temps don't look much different either. . That's a pretty critical detail though. Spending the day mostly around 31/32, is MUCH different than 29/30. What is the surface wind direction? NNE? Do you have a graphic for that? Didn't realize the Northern half of ME had so much snow cover... Could be quite helpful in this situation... http://www.eldoradocountyweather.com/snowdepth.html Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OceanStWx Posted March 21, 2016 Share Posted March 21, 2016 That's a pretty critical detail though. Spending the day mostly around 31/32, is MUCH different than 29/30. What is the surface wind direction? NNE? Do you have a graphic for that? Didn't realize the Northern half of ME had so much snow cover... Could be quite helpful in this situation... http://www.eldoradocountyweather.com/snowdepth.html Wind directions are 070, 050, 050 for the NAM, Euro, and GFS respectively. MOS is 040 degrees, and it's not surprising that it would have a better "memory" of these set ups. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted March 21, 2016 Share Posted March 21, 2016 Euro would get ice probably into ORH or close to it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OceanStWx Posted March 21, 2016 Share Posted March 21, 2016 Euro would get ice probably into ORH or close to it. I mean how often do we see those tempting 40s and 50s getting to the NH border? Then we wonder why it's still 33/32 with -DZ during the mid afternoon at CON. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted March 21, 2016 Share Posted March 21, 2016 I mean how often do we see those tempting 40s and 50s getting to the NH border? Then we wonder why it's still 33/32 with -DZ during the mid afternoon at CON. 12Z GFS came in colder too. I've actually seen glaze even on the coast in early April 2003. That was frigid. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jbenedet Posted March 21, 2016 Share Posted March 21, 2016 Wind directions are 070, 050, 050 for the NAM, Euro, and GFS respectively. MOS is 040 degrees, and it's not surprising that it would have a better "memory" of these set ups. Ty. I agree. That's an ideal flow for sure..Today's snowfall, with the snowcover along the coast, could be an important factor for this as well, considering the critical difference in 1 or 2 degrees for surface temps...Let's see how much survives... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted March 21, 2016 Share Posted March 21, 2016 NAM already has 30's well down into SNE Thurs. classic setup where every run of every model trends colder with that HP up there Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted March 21, 2016 Share Posted March 21, 2016 DC sunbathing, while Dendrites scrapes. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dendrite Posted March 21, 2016 Share Posted March 21, 2016 DC sunbathing, while Dendrites scrapes. Napes in Tolland; scrapes in Northfield Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted March 21, 2016 Share Posted March 21, 2016 GFS blasts the front through here. I dunno. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OceanStWx Posted March 21, 2016 Share Posted March 21, 2016 DC sunbathing, while Dendrites scrapes. Poor Eek... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted March 21, 2016 Share Posted March 21, 2016 30's and drizzle down to NYC while we ice north Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted March 21, 2016 Share Posted March 21, 2016 Lets get this again Take a look at the GGEM (12z) from 180-192 hours ... not a huge difference. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Recommended Posts
Archived
This topic is now archived and is closed to further replies.