NorEastermass128 Posted March 13, 2016 Share Posted March 13, 2016 Meh, cutter risk for now. Yup. See the 18z GFS. Poor HP placement, no scooter streak or confluence to stop this thing for cutting. I'm talking D8, so Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted March 13, 2016 Share Posted March 13, 2016 Yup. See the 18z GFS. Poor HP placement, no scooter streak or confluence to stop this thing for cutting. I'm talking D8, so Well I think odds favor more of that solution, but at 7-8 days out....I suppose it can change. It means more for NNE obviously. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorEastermass128 Posted March 13, 2016 Share Posted March 13, 2016 Well I think odds favor more of that solution, but at 7-8 days out....I suppose it can change. It means more for NNE obviously. I just find it hard to believe my last accumulating snowfall was on President's Day. Even '01-02 had a couple of events near the Equinox. EDIT: Then again, I thought it wasn't possible to get 90" in three weeks last year, so there's that too. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted March 13, 2016 Share Posted March 13, 2016 Didn't even see the GGEM until now. Man I love shoveling GGEM fantasy snow this season, haha. image.png be careful talking about future weather is not encouraged here Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted March 13, 2016 Share Posted March 13, 2016 We rain south of Route 2. No surprises Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
powderfreak Posted March 14, 2016 Share Posted March 14, 2016 We rain south of Route 2. No surprises When? Tomorrow? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HoarfrostHubb Posted March 14, 2016 Share Posted March 14, 2016 We rain south of Route 2. No surprises Technically I am south of Rte 2 by a couple of miles I will prob see a trace to perhaps 0.1" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Randy4Confluence Posted March 14, 2016 Share Posted March 14, 2016 I guess there's no blocking on the Atlantic side around the eqinox. Otherwise that's a legit storm. Oh well...I'd rather stare at the ass of a rhynoceris than track another cutter on the GFS. Maybe it's time to sign off. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
eyewall Posted March 14, 2016 Share Posted March 14, 2016 Well I think odds favor more of that solution, but at 7-8 days out....I suppose it can change. It means more for NNE obviously. With this winter the odds are it cuts. Congrats Mont Tremblant, QC. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted March 14, 2016 Share Posted March 14, 2016 Well I think odds favor more of that solution, but at 7-8 days out....I suppose it can change. It means more for NNE obviously. See, this is exactly why I just wanted to be done rather than muster any other threats....because its going to be a 41* rain. God, this winter blew diseased rats harder than any before. Good riddance. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted March 14, 2016 Share Posted March 14, 2016 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorEastermass128 Posted March 14, 2016 Share Posted March 14, 2016 That's a pretty good clustering to the east. Still an eternity away though. Obviously looks better for VT-NH-ME. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
klw Posted March 14, 2016 Share Posted March 14, 2016 If I hadn't already given up all hope and stopped looking, I would have seen this and gotten a little excited. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted March 14, 2016 Share Posted March 14, 2016 If I hadn't already given up all hope and stopped looking, I would have seen this and gotten a little excited. you peeked Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
J.Spin Posted March 14, 2016 Share Posted March 14, 2016 If I hadn't already given up all hope and stopped looking, I would have seen this and gotten a little excited. Well, imagine how torn you’d be if the ECMWF had also shown something like that. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted March 14, 2016 Share Posted March 14, 2016 Well, imagine how torn you’d be if the ECMWF had also shown something like that.it did Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MaineJayhawk Posted March 14, 2016 Share Posted March 14, 2016 Wow, looking at J.Spin's seasonal snowfall tally ... that'd be a crappy winter even for me on the CP Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
J.Spin Posted March 14, 2016 Share Posted March 14, 2016 it did Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted March 14, 2016 Share Posted March 14, 2016 you guys really don't have much objective reasoning ability ... I'm starting a thread for this - hopefully there will be substantive contribution and not this hand wringer neurological crap. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
powderfreak Posted March 14, 2016 Share Posted March 14, 2016 Wow, looking at J.Spin's seasonal snowfall tally ... that'd be a crappy winter even for me on the CP JSpin posted that based on his data this would be about a 1 in 100 year winter. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
eduggs Posted March 14, 2016 Share Posted March 14, 2016 JSpin posted that based on his data this would be about a 1 in 100 year winter. If snow season ended right now this would be between a 1 in 100 and 1 in 500 winter, locally, based on historical records. The thing is we have several more weeks to go where snow accumulation is possible. What makes this season unique is we haven't had a single snow "event" just nuisance dustings and coatings which were generally inflated by the airport observer (Feb 9 in particular). But even one moderate event over the next 4 weeks would move this season from unheard of to rare. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
powderfreak Posted March 14, 2016 Share Posted March 14, 2016 If snow season ended right now this would be between a 1 in 100 and 1 in 500 winter, locally, based on historical records. The thing is we have several more weeks to go where snow accumulation is possible. What makes this season unique is we haven't had a single snow "event" just nuisance dustings and coatings which were generally inflated by the airport observer (Feb 9 in particular). But even one moderate event over the next 4 weeks would move this season from unheard of to rare. Haha that thought has occurred to me. We've worked so hard for absolute ridiculous ratter status... even last night I was thinking how much this winter sucked going through it, but now coming out of it, it was certainly something interesting to experience from a rarity standpoint. The values in almost all metrics are on a scale I never thought possible... its almost like I want to preserve the season at this point instead of some 8-9" event to pad the stats. Its truly nuts to me that of the ski resorts snowfall in the past 20 years, this season is a full 100" lower than the NEXT worst season. That's not 100" below normal, that's just 100" below the number 2 crappy year, which was 100" below normal. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
J.Spin Posted March 14, 2016 Share Posted March 14, 2016 J.Spin posted that based on his data this would be about a 1 in 100 year winter. My spreadsheet wasn’t even set up to go out to hundredths of a percent, never thinking I’d need to worry about it, but now that we’re below that 1% mark it’s starting to matter a bit more. Anyway, today’s calculation says that we’re looking at a 1 in 115 year event with respect to season snowfall as of this date. My data set is only one decade, but I’ve got decent faith that it’s not totally out to lunch due to the way that the numbers have continually paralleled the longer-term data sets from nearby mountain sites. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
eduggs Posted March 14, 2016 Share Posted March 14, 2016 Haha that thought has occurred to me. We've worked so hard for absolute ridiculous ratter status... even last night I was thinking how much this winter sucked going through it, but now coming out of it, it was certainly something interesting to experience from a rarity standpoint. The values in almost all metrics are on a scale I never thought possible... its almost like I want to preserve the season at this point instead of some 8-9" event to pad the stats. Its truly nuts to me that of the ski resorts snowfall in the past 20 years, this season is a full 100" lower than the NEXT worst season. That's not 100" below normal, that's just 100" below the number 2 crappy year, which was 100" below normal. I feel the same. There have been several average to good winters that I don't remember so clearly anymore. But this season I will never forget. I almost don't want to spoil that memorableness. The magnitude of departures is incredible in the mountains. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
powderfreak Posted March 14, 2016 Share Posted March 14, 2016 I preferred the 00z/06z GFS to the 12z... lol. Congrats Boston. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted March 14, 2016 Share Posted March 14, 2016 I preferred the 00z/06z GFS to the 12z... lol. Congrats Boston. Wait another run or two Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
powderfreak Posted March 14, 2016 Share Posted March 14, 2016 Wait another run or two Or 20, haha. 20 runs will get us to the meso-models. Only 20 to go. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JC-CT Posted March 14, 2016 Share Posted March 14, 2016 Or 20, haha. 20 runs will get us to the meso-models. Only 20 to go. The new Euro locks in solutions at day 6. Final outcome run coming up. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
codfishsnowman Posted March 14, 2016 Share Posted March 14, 2016 lack of snow...the gift that keeps on giving in all sorts of different ways Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Midlo Snow Maker Posted March 14, 2016 Share Posted March 14, 2016 euro crushes many of ya'll this run Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Recommended Posts
Archived
This topic is now archived and is closed to further replies.