codfishsnowman Posted March 13, 2016 Share Posted March 13, 2016 It's over. I meant, verbatim there is enough dry air around when the DGZ saturates that I wouldn't be surprised if there was some sleet with temps in the upper 30s or something like that. snow88 says it is not over for you yet next weekend Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted March 13, 2016 Share Posted March 13, 2016 Gfs says it is not over for you yet next weekend Fixed Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted March 13, 2016 Share Posted March 13, 2016 Cmc has a 974 low east of LI at 198 hours Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RUNNAWAYICEBERG Posted March 13, 2016 Share Posted March 13, 2016 overnight ens do have something off the coast, like a re developer. 0z euro op does not. 12 gfs and ggem op have big interior hits. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted March 13, 2016 Share Posted March 13, 2016 Ukie is also a coastal Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted March 13, 2016 Share Posted March 13, 2016 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Randy4Confluence Posted March 13, 2016 Share Posted March 13, 2016 Man the pattern looks ripe for late season snow storm! Wow at that coastal on the Gfs at 180. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted March 13, 2016 Share Posted March 13, 2016 Oh wow Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted March 13, 2016 Share Posted March 13, 2016 Snow Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted March 13, 2016 Share Posted March 13, 2016 Yeah, it's interesting to see these operational runs collapse around that common theme (haven't seen the 12z Euro just yet...), particularly when it's been advertised that the Equinox period of time had a kind of "last hurrah" look to it... If this miserable winter season were to offer any kind of poetic exit at all, the teleconnectors have been creating verse - There are issues, though ... more so than being D7-9. Namely, the ridge in the west is sort of dubiously aligned, both spatially and timing wise, with still a bit too much mass situated slightly too far west for classical wave-length arguments. The previous solutions that were west actually might be a better fit for that. However, there is a difference, too, in that the ridge in these depictions has an unusual long wave length, in both the GGEM and GFS. It seems to max in latitude near MT; that's a long shot better position-wise than any of the other in the myriad of failed systems that have characterized EVERY chance since mid January (pretty remarkable feat in persisting failure in its self!) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted March 13, 2016 Share Posted March 13, 2016 Meh, cutter risk for now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted March 13, 2016 Share Posted March 13, 2016 Oh wow Euro on board for CNE NNE Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted March 13, 2016 Share Posted March 13, 2016 GGW? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
moneypitmike Posted March 13, 2016 Share Posted March 13, 2016 GGW? GGW??? Even if we do get snow, it's 3 months late. Bootleg storm. I want to go out in a blaze of glory with my 12". Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted March 13, 2016 Share Posted March 13, 2016 GGW?you might want to look again Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
moneypitmike Posted March 13, 2016 Share Posted March 13, 2016 Excuse my ignorance......what is GGW? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted March 13, 2016 Share Posted March 13, 2016 you might want to look again Yeah I saw. Definitely some potential Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted March 13, 2016 Share Posted March 13, 2016 Excuse my ignorance......what is GGW? Ginxy Gone Wild. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted March 13, 2016 Share Posted March 13, 2016 Excuse my ignorance......what is GGW?Ginx Gone Wild, it's what they say when they model sped without looking. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted March 13, 2016 Share Posted March 13, 2016 Yeah I saw. Definitely some potentialwhy GGW? I looked deeply at it. I am totally in 1500 ft to 3K Maine mode but even VT NH does well on the Euro. EPS was good too last night. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted March 13, 2016 Share Posted March 13, 2016 why GGW? I looked deeply at it. I am totally in 1500 ft to 3K Maine mode but even VT NH does well on the Euro. EPS was good too last night. Scotts trying to steal your snow Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted March 13, 2016 Share Posted March 13, 2016 Well it is like 8 days out. However I would agree that NNE looks halfway decent right now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OceanStWx Posted March 13, 2016 Share Posted March 13, 2016 why GGW? I looked deeply at it. I am totally in 1500 ft to 3K Maine mode but even VT NH does well on the Euro. EPS was good too last night. Well it is like 8 days out. However I would agree that NNE looks halfway decent right now. The EPS definitely ticked in a snowier direction up here. Mountains verbatim are probably one last borderline warning event to give our stats a further kick in the teeth. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
powderfreak Posted March 13, 2016 Share Posted March 13, 2016 why GGW? I looked deeply at it. I am totally in 1500 ft to 3K Maine mode but even VT NH does well on the Euro. EPS was good too last night. 24 hour snow of 8" shown here at MVL on the EURO...I'd hit that. Would like to see the low further south though. We don't get 6-8" very often with a low tracking over Pittsburg, NH. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TheBudMan Posted March 13, 2016 Share Posted March 13, 2016 Every time someone posts that pic of Ginxy I puke lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted March 13, 2016 Share Posted March 13, 2016 24 hour snow of 8" shown here at MVL on the EURO...I'd hit that. Would like to see the low further south though. We don't get 6-8" very often with a low tracking over Pittsburg, NH. that Euro run doesn't have a prayer evolving that way. there's this mystique about the Euro model in general I have noticed this year in particular - ...but it's been going on for some time. And it goes like: a few models depict some awesome solution in the D8 range, and the posting frequency slows to a crawl...palpably you can sense people holding breath waiting for the Euro like it's d8 is gospel. Then of course it comes out with some distracting solution and hands throw up and it's see! no guys, the Euro SUCKS in that time range, perhaps WORSE than the other guidance. Not sure what/where/why the Euro ever started warranting special regard in a D8 solution but my guess is its faux emerged ...like random crowd popularity. It's the best model < 5 Ds, but it stops on a dime there. Having feared sounding like a boner defending the GGEM/GFS ...sorry, fact remains, the Euro run looks stupid first of all, and I've already discussed why the GGEM/GFS may be correctable anyway. Now...if people want to just be honest and say they side with least excuse imaginable to butt sore everyone because everyone's butt has been remorselessly sored for months unending... well, that's another discussion - Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted March 13, 2016 Share Posted March 13, 2016 I agree John on the euro. Though I should say mostly because ALL operational models are mostly useless at day 8. The mystic of day 8 euro solutions closely parallels when euro data became easier for everyone to access. We used to make fun of GFS and GGEM day 8 solutions all the time an euro day 8 solutions were rarely even mentioned at all...mostly because very few people had access and the ones that did were mostly mets who didn't bother posting on a 192 hour map. Its always been kind of insane to me that there is a non-zero population on these forums that sees a day 8 snowstorm and then makes posts about what a garbage model or what a bust it was once it disappears by 108-120 hours out or something. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted March 13, 2016 Share Posted March 13, 2016 I agree John on the euro. Though I should say mostly because ALL operational models are mostly useless at day 8. The mystic of day 8 euro solutions closely parallels when euro data became easier for everyone to access. We used to make fun of GFS and GGEM day 8 solutions all the time an euro day 8 solutions were rarely even mentioned at all...mostly because very few people had access and the ones that did were mostly mets who didn't bother posting on a 192 hour map. Its always been kind of insane to me that there is a non-zero population on these forums that sees a day 8 snowstorm and then makes posts about what a garbage model or what a bust it was once it disappears by 108-120 hours out or something. It makes it harder to wrangle things in, too, when no matter what anyone says ... desperation still smolders underneath posting facades ... espousing how they've checked out and embrace the prospect of spring and warmth. (oh of course - we know) I must admit to feeling the dearth some ...as much as I am capable of that. I could go either way here; one aspect of my mentality was really into the 63 F and sun while working in the yard today, which of course could not happen last year or the year before. Contrasting, ..yeah, if something broke right down the stretch here it'd be fascinating to see it unfold, particularly given said dearth of winter events. But I digress.. In this situation, not withstanding the rare freak show that happens every 10 or so April ... this really does appear to be it for one last possible chance this horrifying winter. I like the PNA spike going into the 21st at the same time the NAO spent the previous weak solidly negative. The operational runs are also constructing transient blocking nodes over eastern Ontario, that helps both support the idea some polar high enhancing east wind into the mid Atlantic, but also sets up lowering height potential in the means coming into the lower OV... It is one of those situations where yeah ...as you say, in so far as ALL models suck big donkey balls in that time range, there are some times when the extended should produce - this is one of those times. Again, that is notwithstanding a cutter ...or a miss S. But already I think a +PNAP is in the cards; we'll just have to see how the dealer plays the hand. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
powderfreak Posted March 13, 2016 Share Posted March 13, 2016 Didn't even see the GGEM until now. Man I love shoveling GGEM fantasy snow this season, haha. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
powderfreak Posted March 13, 2016 Share Posted March 13, 2016 I agree John on the euro. Though I should say mostly because ALL operational models are mostly useless at day 8. The mystic of day 8 euro solutions closely parallels when euro data became easier for everyone to access. We used to make fun of GFS and GGEM day 8 solutions all the time an euro day 8 solutions were rarely even mentioned at all...mostly because very few people had access and the ones that did were mostly mets who didn't bother posting on a 192 hour map. Its always been kind of insane to me that there is a non-zero population on these forums that sees a day 8 snowstorm and then makes posts about what a garbage model or what a bust it was once it disappears by 108-120 hours out or something. The worst thing about the long range model runs out past 144-168 hours is that you are often going to see some exotic solutions that look fantastic. See today's GFS and GGEM runs. Pretty much anything is going to be a let down after looking at those haha. It can almost always feel like you are getting screwed when you keep remembering the "huge" solutions and comparing every other run to that perfect run from a couple days ago. Like if this ended up as a 6" snowfall but the GFS and GGEM were throwing out 12-18" before...the multitude of model runs can almost be too much because it's easy to get sucked in and compare all future runs to that perfect scenario that popped out days 6-8 or something. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Recommended Posts
Archived
This topic is now archived and is closed to further replies.