bobbutts Posted February 21, 2016 Share Posted February 21, 2016 GFS has been sneaking the QPF up and shortening the duration of the storm for KCON last 24 hrs of runs.. Up over 2" now. Snowpack fatality on that model. Torched from the surface all the way to 700mb too, not some borderline wintery mix. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted February 21, 2016 Share Posted February 21, 2016 Euro basically says what first wave? Gfs had been trending north. Have to watch this. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dendrite Posted February 21, 2016 Share Posted February 21, 2016 Maybe some brief SN/IP then some -ZR in the interior. Fairly meh. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dendrite Posted February 21, 2016 Share Posted February 21, 2016 Gfs had been trending north. Have to watch this.Are you talking about tomorrow? That's a lost cause. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted February 21, 2016 Share Posted February 21, 2016 Euro basically says what first wave? Tossed after it's performance lately Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted February 21, 2016 Share Posted February 21, 2016 Are you talking about tomorrow? That's a lost cause. Yeah certainly nothing like the Canadian. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted February 21, 2016 Share Posted February 21, 2016 Congrats OKC 80s to a foot Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted February 21, 2016 Share Posted February 21, 2016 Still an icy look for awhile near and north of ORH. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted February 21, 2016 Share Posted February 21, 2016 Tomorrow aside... we have three events of interest through D10 1 ) the obviously trended disappointment for winter enthusiast mid week ordeal, that appears destined more than ever to move on a trajectory west of the Apps... This is unfortunately, higher in confidence with only one lingering aspect offering uncertainty being whatever really gets relayed off the Pacific over the denser sounding domain of land. Pending anything needing drastic correction when that happens, the mid week is now inside D5 of some of the more dependable model types and is therefore high confidence. Nevertheless, some lingering cold llv thickness will need scouring out and precipitating out of that effort ... some light snow prior to unabated warm front approach flips to rain S to N. We probably warm or quasi -warm sector with 50s type intermediary air. One less than noticed aspect about all that is that the southern component of the trough amplitude is turning negative ...subtending SE from the quasi closed low moving up over the eastern GL. That should impose quite a rip of instability as it cuts N along the MA/NE regions. I would watch for some sort of ribbon echo rad sinuously wobbling it's way through a band of moderate to heavy rain, and it appears to have intense mechanical forcing .. that can bring interesting weather phenomenon of non-wintry variety. 2 ) there is a coherent signal in the operational guidance et al, that is also heavily supported by teleconnector correlations, for a dramatic height fall translation through the GL and NE regions roughly D6 through 8. This event appears nearly equal in standard deviation as the last arctic event that affected regions more east ... centered in NE and the MA a couple weeks back, if perhaps being offset only a little by just beginning unavoidable seasonal recovery. The NAO is newly negative in the derivatives of the GEFs, but that may also be tension from the huge negative anomaly passing through Ontario and NE pulling the numbers down... Nevertheless, is an indication that the cold event must be present in the majority of the GEF members ...which it is... And, there is some uncertainty whether this can be lead off by a deeply carving 500 mb S/W, enough to bring some snow. Whatever happens, that appears to herald a few days of negative departures...which might parlay into the # 3 3 ) Around D9/10, we see the intense SPV height core begin to shift and fill. That lowers the gradient overall, and the geopotential contours become "saggy" .. yet still cool. Then, we have a steady diet of Pac S/W cutting underneath that synopsis; to me the enters the possibility for some sort of phasing in a lower ambient velocity fluid medium. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allsnow Posted February 21, 2016 Share Posted February 21, 2016 Euro congrats Chicago Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted February 21, 2016 Share Posted February 21, 2016 Seems like the polar pig comes back next weekend. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allsnow Posted February 21, 2016 Share Posted February 21, 2016 Seems like the polar pig comes back next weekend. Hopefully we can get something to turn the corner as the PV lifts out. Blocking to the north also Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
moneypitmike Posted February 21, 2016 Share Posted February 21, 2016 Well thank God. We get some cool conditions again next weekend. That's the only winter weather of note this year: last weekenad and maybe next weekend. Whooppee. 41.3/31 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EastonSN+ Posted February 21, 2016 Share Posted February 21, 2016 Well thank God. We get some cool conditions again next weekend. That's the only winter weather of note this year: last weekenad and maybe next weekend. Whooppee. 41.3/31 Looks like the MA could get hit again. Good for them. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
moneypitmike Posted February 21, 2016 Share Posted February 21, 2016 Looks like the MA could get hit again. Good for them. Coastal NC will have more snow than I on the season per the GFS. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted February 21, 2016 Share Posted February 21, 2016 West based neg nao on euro towards march Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted February 21, 2016 Share Posted February 21, 2016 West based neg nao on euro towards march ? not really ... it's more incidental because there's a whopper negative anomaly in the lower/western Maritimes of the Canada...the circulation around which has a transient ridge; but the D. Straight/Greenland regions have only modest positive anomalies in said ridge. it's not really a true -NAO. although ha - i feel pretty confident that at some point this miserable annoying spring a -NAO will come in just in time ruin a timely seasonal warm up while being squarely too late for snow... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted February 21, 2016 Share Posted February 21, 2016 Euro succumbed to GFS on that arctic shot days 7-10. They were complete opposites until today. Euro struggling Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted February 21, 2016 Share Posted February 21, 2016 Upgrade Euro has minor front end like the Euro. Runs heavy snow OKC NW ARK ChI UPMi. Does have a SCNE snowstorm Day 8-10 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stash Posted February 21, 2016 Share Posted February 21, 2016 A couple climate sights down near there such as Richmond and Wallops Island have had more snow than me this winter. Some models are hinting at some wintry weather here at the start, but the typical areas of NE probably stand a slightly better chance of that, Coastal NC will have more snow than I on the season per the GFS. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted February 21, 2016 Share Posted February 21, 2016 Before Kev asks, Upgrade 7 IJD 12 ORH March 1/2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted February 21, 2016 Share Posted February 21, 2016 Before Kev asks, Upgrade 7 IJD 12 ORH March 1/2 I remember late last week we asked and it gave us all a foot. #it'sstruggling Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JC-CT Posted February 21, 2016 Share Posted February 21, 2016 I remember late last week we asked and it gave us all a foot. #it'sstruggling The signal for a system of gulf origin around the first couple days of March has been showing up on guidance since it came into range at 384 hours. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted February 21, 2016 Share Posted February 21, 2016 The signal for a system of gulf origin around the first couple days of March has been showing up on guidance since it came into range at 384 hours. Same with our cutter to Chicago this week. Showed up at 384 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted February 21, 2016 Share Posted February 21, 2016 Same with our cutter to Chicago this week. Showed up at 384Watch the GFS day 11-15 truncation seems to be pretty good this season, what comes around goes around Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorEastermass128 Posted February 21, 2016 Share Posted February 21, 2016 Same with our cutter to Chicago this week. Showed up at 384Without blocking, we risk cutters. Maybe we get some blocking before we get to the point when we don't want any. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JC-CT Posted February 21, 2016 Share Posted February 21, 2016 Same with our cutter to Chicago this week. Showed up at 384 Yeah there was a signal for this one too. And not sure what Ginx was seeing but there was a run or two showing a Chicago cutter but they were all over the place, and the most consistent look was a Cape Cod hugger look. So maybe you should be excited now that the Goofus is showing a Mid Atlantic storm in the long range since everything and its mother has come west this year. We are coming out of a period of mjo phases 6-7 into now phases 8-1. That's a reason in itself to think this upcoming two weeks won't work out exactly the same as the last two. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted February 21, 2016 Share Posted February 21, 2016 Without blocking, we risk cutters. Maybe we get some blocking before we get to the point when we don't want any.lot of blocking showing up Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted February 21, 2016 Share Posted February 21, 2016 4k NAM is very snowy for South of the PIKE with a LP skirting east hr 54 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HoarfrostHubb Posted February 21, 2016 Share Posted February 21, 2016 4k NAM is very snowy for South of the PIKE with a LP skirting east hr 54 Still oink? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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