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Model Mezzanine - 3rd times a charm


Baroclinic Zone

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What a big euro ensemble fail later next week. We door and door hard.

Yep. Be interesting were the front sets up on what happens down here. Wed looks the warmest. It was a huge fail by the eps also from its forecast from about 10 days ago regarding next weeks warmth. It was showing below normal Hghts in the east and a wintry pattern.

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I would watch late next weekend through Saturday across New England. I'm still seeing an overrunning signal. Might be a little more in CNE or NNE..but with the shift on the euro ensembles...pretty much all are in game for a chance of something. And it likely would be more SWFE fashion...more wintry N and E, less S and W.  It's early, but just preliminary thougts. It could still be strung out garbage or trend north.

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I would watch late next weekend through Saturday across New England. I'm still seeing an overrunning signal. Might be a little more in CNE or NNE..but with the shift on the euro ensembles...pretty much all are in game for a chance of something. And it likely would be more SWFE fashion...more wintry N and E, less S and W.  It's early, but just preliminary thougts. It could still be strung out garbage or trend north.

 

Based on how things have trended at this time-range this entire winter, I'm pretty confident how this will end up.

 

 

19.7/8 off a low of 15.5

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GFS is on it's own with driving the cold front so far south into the teeth of the WAR and snowing in SNE. Euro keeps that boundary basically right over SNE or just south. Probably ends up a miserable 45 degree rain. Hopefully far NNE can cash in on something

 

Euro isn't far off. 

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I would watch late next weekend through Saturday across New England. I'm still seeing an overrunning signal. Might be a little more in CNE or NNE..but with the shift on the euro ensembles...pretty much all are in game for a chance of something. And it likely would be more SWFE fashion...more wintry N and E, less S and W. It's early, but just preliminary thougts. It could still be strung out garbage or trend north.

With that huge area of below-average heights off to the northeast we definitely have to keep an eye out for back door potential and crappy weather.

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New England at its worst for much of that euro run after Wednesday.

 

I was getting a little worried about the lack of freezes this week for the maple season, that run makes me feel a little better. It would be nice get another couple weeks. Last year I didnt even tap until like March 10th.

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Oh that's not gonna happen ... lord.  You can clearly see that from D7.5 on it arbitrarily drills heights deeply into E ontario having almost no discerned impetus in the circulation for doing so - classic deep range Euro mania bullsh!t.. 

 

The warm period/interval will pass here and of course some other paradigm will come along and take it's place ...not that way.  

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