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Model Mezzanine - 3rd times a charm


Baroclinic Zone

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OVERVIEW...

02/00Z GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO HAVE SOME ISSUES REGARDING THE TRACK

OF A COASTAL STORM MOVING OFFSHORE FROM THE MID ATLANTIC STATES

THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY. THE LATEST GFS SOLUTION IS ALONG THE

NORTHERN EDGE OF THE DETERMINISTIC GUIDANCE ENVELOPE...BUT IS

PRETTY SPOT ON WITH THE GEFS ENSEMBLE MEAN. ONLY SAW A HANDFUL OF

GEFS MEMBERS WITH A SOLUTION FARTHER NORTH. WHILE THE MAJORITY OF

THE DETERMINISTIC GUIDANCE SUITE FAVORS A STORM TRACK WELL TO OUR

SOUTH...CANNOT COMPLETELY SHUT THE DOOR ON A MORE NORTHWARD SHIFT.

EVEN THE CANADIAN...WHICH WAS THE FARTHEST NORTH THIS TIME

YESTERDAY...AS TAKEN A MORE SOUTHERN TRACK...IN LINE WITH THE

REST OF THE GUIDANCE.

WILL CONTINUE TO FAVOR THE MORE SOUTHERLY CONSENSUS TRACK FOR THIS

FORECAST. EXPECTING THE ENERGY ASSOCIATED WITH THIS STORM TO BE

BETTER SAMPLED. THIS SHOULD RESULT IN A NARROWER GUIDANCE

ENVELOPE...AND GREATER CONFIDENCE...WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

ANTICIPATING MORE OF A GLANCING BLOW WITH SOME LIGHT SNOW.

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10.3"

That's a BS number.  They should be below 10".  They reported an erroneous 1.5" on Feb. 9 that was really closer to a coating.  My theory is someone included the snow from the day before in the 2/9 total.  I've contacted the NWS office about it and they said they would contact the airport observer to verify.  It's a trivial thing so I doubt anybody would ever look into it.

 

In truth, several of the many <1" snow events this season reported at the airport seemed a bit high, but who ever worries about a few tenths?  Local observers report about 8" for the season.

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