JC-CT Posted March 2, 2016 Share Posted March 2, 2016 Dryslot, look at the NCEP site, it has the 21utc run already.Looks pretty similar to 15z to me Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ncforecaster89 Posted March 2, 2016 Share Posted March 2, 2016 I think it can, given dynamics and oceanic sea surface temperature anomalies focusing along the 40/70 benchmark, this should spark strong to rapid deepening. Maybe more than modeled currently, maybe along the lines of the CMC. That's the thing about the Cape, as compared to other parts of SNE, it doesn't take much of a last minute shift to change the conditions substantially (based subjectively on the last two years I've been observing storms in this region). Thus, I would be hesitant to rule anything out at this point and you may very well be correct. Edit: You outlined valid points that support the idea of a prospective significant blizzard for the Cape. Like you, I'd love to see the GGEM 00z run from last night verify...just don't yet see it as more than a pretty low probability at this poin5t. Verifiable blizzard conditions at Chatham is a much higher probability, though. Reasoning for being cautiously optimistic! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
USCAPEWEATHERAF Posted March 2, 2016 Share Posted March 2, 2016 The SLP is different, more northwest track and the mean is leaning towards the west. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
USCAPEWEATHERAF Posted March 2, 2016 Share Posted March 2, 2016 That's the thing about the Cape, as compared to other parts of SNE, it doesn't take much of a last minute shift to change the conditions substantially (based subjectively on the last two years I've been observing storms in this region). Thus, I would be hesitant to rule anything out at this point and you may very well be correct. I remember your chase last year with the blizzard of 2015, we got 33" here in Harwich, MA Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted March 2, 2016 Share Posted March 2, 2016 I don't place much stock in the SREFS or the Nam at this range Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JC-CT Posted March 2, 2016 Share Posted March 2, 2016 I don't place much stock in the SREFS or the Nam at this rangeI'm appalled Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted March 2, 2016 Share Posted March 2, 2016 And basically, Outside of the cape and maybe the SE areas of SNE, Pretty much going to be a non event unless there are some serious shifts NW at 0z on the big boy models Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted March 2, 2016 Share Posted March 2, 2016 I'm appalled I thought you would be more devastated then appalled Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JC-CT Posted March 2, 2016 Share Posted March 2, 2016 I thought you would be more devastated then appalledThat too! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
USCAPEWEATHERAF Posted March 2, 2016 Share Posted March 2, 2016 I don't think tonight's run is as important as tomorrow night's 00z runs. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ncforecaster89 Posted March 2, 2016 Share Posted March 2, 2016 I remember your chase last year with the blizzard of 2015, we got 33" here in Harwich, MA I distinctly remember that, and was thrilled for you! Must admit I, for one, didn't anticipate the further SE track that kept CC all snow through the event. Was happy being where I was in Scituate (and am still grateful to so many here who encouraged me to choose that as an excellent intercept location) for the event. However, if I had foreseen those 33" snowfall amounts accompanied by HF winds, would've likely gone to the Cape. Congrats on that event, and here's to hoping you get another significant one, very soon! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
USCAPEWEATHERAF Posted March 2, 2016 Share Posted March 2, 2016 I distinctly remember that, and was thrilled for you! Must admit I, for one, didn't anticipate the further SE track that kept CC all snow through the event. Was happy being where I was in Scituate (and am still grateful to so many here who encouraged me to choose that as an excellent intercept location) for the event. However, if I had foreseen those 33" snowfall amounts accompanied by HF winds, would've likely gone to the Cape. Congrats on that event, and here's to hoping you get another significant one, very soon! Thanks, I don't know what the record snowfall for March is for CHH. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ncforecaster89 Posted March 2, 2016 Share Posted March 2, 2016 I don't think tonight's run is as important as tomorrow night's 00z runs. As I believe you, yourself, mentioned, I'm most interested in seeing how guidance responds to sampling with both the 12z and 00z runs, tomorrow. Being that I have been following this subforum for the past couple of seasons and finding myself empathizing with you guys who actually live there, I'm hoping as much of SNE as possible gets something from this prospective event! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
USCAPEWEATHERAF Posted March 2, 2016 Share Posted March 2, 2016 Yeah Cape Cod weather is much different than the rest of SNE weather. I see your point, of course I want the rest of SNE to get in on the action too. I am not selfish. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
USCAPEWEATHERAF Posted March 2, 2016 Share Posted March 2, 2016 Why isn't the NAM running right now? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted March 2, 2016 Share Posted March 2, 2016 Why isn't the NAM running right now? Reboot your server. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JC-CT Posted March 2, 2016 Share Posted March 2, 2016 Reboot your server. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ineedsnow Posted March 2, 2016 Share Posted March 2, 2016 Nam does seem slow tonight Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ineedsnow Posted March 2, 2016 Share Posted March 2, 2016 Just looked running 15 to 30 minutes late tonight Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ineedsnow Posted March 2, 2016 Share Posted March 2, 2016 Lol perfect Reboot your server. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted March 2, 2016 Share Posted March 2, 2016 The 0z Nam has been done for about 15 mins or so Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JC-CT Posted March 2, 2016 Share Posted March 2, 2016 The 0z Nam has been done for about 15 mins or soThat's how good it was Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted March 2, 2016 Share Posted March 2, 2016 That's how good it was It was devastating Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ncforecaster89 Posted March 2, 2016 Share Posted March 2, 2016 That slight shift to the SE on the 00z NAM is not encouraging; need NW, not SE. Then again, we are talking about the NAM at 60 plus hours. I don't have a wxbell subscription so I'll be interested to see what you guys post regarding the 00z GFS and Euro...as I suspect someone will post the general overview before I see it. Another reason I like this subforum. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ncforecaster89 Posted March 2, 2016 Share Posted March 2, 2016 It was devastating This is supposed to be the "weenie" run range for the NAM. Hope this run doesn't portend a similar evolution on the 00z GFS. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted March 2, 2016 Share Posted March 2, 2016 This is supposed to be the "weenie" run range for the NAM. Hope this run doesn't portend a similar evolution on the 00z GFS. Outside of the cape and maybe the SE areas of SNE I don't think many will see much impact from this one. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted March 2, 2016 Share Posted March 2, 2016 No help from the GFS or GGEM either...what mild trend NW we had the past couple runs is clearly halted at 00z. Probably a scraper for the Cape and just some nuisance light snows for the rest of us in SNE...maybe measurable, maybe not. That would be my guess right now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ncforecaster89 Posted March 2, 2016 Share Posted March 2, 2016 Looks like some marginal improvement on the 00z GFS. Track is very similar to 18z and a deeper system SE of the Cape. CCB still a miss for all areas and the flow too progressive. Upside, simply put, it's not too far off from something much better and it didn't shift SE like the NAM. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
eduggs Posted March 2, 2016 Share Posted March 2, 2016 That makes ALB 0 for 18 on the season. Didn't even get half way to an advisory snowfall. The entire season's snowfall would not even quality for a warning. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ncforecaster89 Posted March 2, 2016 Share Posted March 2, 2016 No help from the GFS or GGEM either...what mild trend NW we had the past couple runs is clearly halted at 00z. Probably a scraper for the Cape and just some nuisance light snows for the rest of us in SNE...maybe measurable, maybe not. That would be my guess right now. Good early call! Given both the 00z GGEM and NAM have a weaker slp E and SE of their prior runs, and there wasn't any further move NW on the 00z GFS (as you noted), probabilities of a significant impact on the Cape has certainly decreased; much less for the rest of SNE. Going to hold out hope that sampling may induce a renewed trend NW...otherwise, it's not looking too promising. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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