USCAPEWEATHERAF Posted March 1, 2016 Share Posted March 1, 2016 Right now the probs in my opinion are for HYA and CHH' HYA 1"+ (95%) 4"+ (75%) 6"+ (35%) 8"+ (25%) 12"+ (15%) 18"+ (5%) CHH 1"+ (100%) 4"+ (90%) 6"+ (80%) 8"+ (45%) 12"+ (35%) 18"+ (15%) Several factors look to be in effect with this storm, much more room for a northwest tick to continue over the next 48 hours. Here we have an arctic disturbance determining the track of the pacific disturbance, this means that there is plenty of cold air present. NWS highs for Friday are around 32F for CHH. Snow ratios improve throughout the storm, which means it is likely more 15:1 or 20:1 sun angle isn't a problem yet. Also storm track looks to favor a Falmouth to Chatham snow band with ACK getting a higher chance of 12"+. With the GFS coming northwestward and other reliable models showing this forecast path, I would say odds of ACK getting 12"+ are around (25%) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted March 1, 2016 Share Posted March 1, 2016 I salute you. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
USCAPEWEATHERAF Posted March 1, 2016 Share Posted March 1, 2016 We currently have a very dynamic storm over the Pacific Northwestern US. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
USCAPEWEATHERAF Posted March 1, 2016 Share Posted March 1, 2016 Lightning on the west coast means a dynamic disturbance coming into the west coast Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted March 2, 2016 Share Posted March 2, 2016 The 0z NAM should be locking on to this tonight Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
USCAPEWEATHERAF Posted March 2, 2016 Share Posted March 2, 2016 Secondary area of high SSTs anomaly over the benchmark, this storm is going to explode. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
USCAPEWEATHERAF Posted March 2, 2016 Share Posted March 2, 2016 Dryslot, the NWS said by 12z tomorrow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baroclinic Zone Posted March 2, 2016 Author Share Posted March 2, 2016 The 0z NAM should be locking on to this tonight I actually expect a humdinger of a NAM run at some point. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted March 2, 2016 Share Posted March 2, 2016 I actually expect a humdinger of a NAM run at some point. You know it's coming Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baroclinic Zone Posted March 2, 2016 Author Share Posted March 2, 2016 You know it's coming I love the models for what they are. The CMC runs of the past few days have been entertaining. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted March 2, 2016 Share Posted March 2, 2016 I love the models for what they are. The CMC runs of the past few days have been entertaining. It's the crazy cousin Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rnaude241 Posted March 2, 2016 Share Posted March 2, 2016 I actually expect a humdinger of a NAM run at some point.Nothing like a good ol humdinger! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ncforecaster89 Posted March 2, 2016 Share Posted March 2, 2016 I love the models for what they are. The CMC runs of the past few days have been entertaining. Kinda ironic that the favorite "weenie" model trended much weaker and away from SNE on its 12z run. Fortunately, we have the GFS, EURO, and their respective ensembles trending NW...which is an encouraging trend considering the GFS' SE bias at this range. All that said, it's getting kinda late in the game for an abrupt halt to the aforementioned NW trend...much less any shift away from the coast (although not irreversible once new data is ingested). As most of you have already noted, it certainly ups the ante on the 00z runs tonight! Right now, I'm very cautiously optimistic; hoping for one last road trip to the area. Most interested in seeing the 12z runs tomorrow afternoon once the energy has been sampled. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Connecticut Appleman Posted March 2, 2016 Share Posted March 2, 2016 At least there is entertainment value in what the models are showing. Kind of like those movies where the concept is good and you expect something amazing is about to happen and then the movie just ends. I believe Dryslot's avatar sums up this winter perfectly. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baroclinic Zone Posted March 2, 2016 Author Share Posted March 2, 2016 I don't see this as a chase worthy storm. High end potential I see is 6-8" for CC. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baroclinic Zone Posted March 2, 2016 Author Share Posted March 2, 2016 Nothing like a good ol humdinger! Only way to describe it. Thinking 1-3" right now, Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
USCAPEWEATHERAF Posted March 2, 2016 Share Posted March 2, 2016 Yeah Bob, the winds might be amazing if the storm can pass within 50-100 miles of the benchmark. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted March 2, 2016 Share Posted March 2, 2016 As of now this is 1-3/2-4 to I-90. We'll see how 00z trends Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ncforecaster89 Posted March 2, 2016 Share Posted March 2, 2016 I don't see this as a chase worthy storm. High end potential I see is 6-8" for CC. I totally agree with your assessment. Honestly, desparation for one last chase would entice me to go to CC for another 8-10" blizzard...although I too don't expect it. Very low probability, but not impossible if it can deepen more than currently modeled and trend close enough to the BM. Big "if" I know. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
USCAPEWEATHERAF Posted March 2, 2016 Share Posted March 2, 2016 SREFs look more northwestward Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
USCAPEWEATHERAF Posted March 2, 2016 Share Posted March 2, 2016 I totally agree with your assessment. Honestly, desparation for one last chase would entice me to go to CC for another 8-10" blizzard...although I too don't expect it. Very low probability, but not impossible if it can deepen more than currently modeled and trend close enough to the BM. Big "if" I know. I think it can, given dynamics and oceanic sea surface temperature anomalies focusing along the 40/70 benchmark, this should spark strong to rapid deepening. Maybe more than modeled currently, maybe along the lines of the CMC. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JC-CT Posted March 2, 2016 Share Posted March 2, 2016 Maybe more than modeled currently, maybe along the lines of the CMC. Contradictory, no? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
USCAPEWEATHERAF Posted March 2, 2016 Share Posted March 2, 2016 NAM is close to being the southern outlier, it even brings 35-40mph winds to Cape Cod for 6 straight hours Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
USCAPEWEATHERAF Posted March 2, 2016 Share Posted March 2, 2016 Contradictory, no? Sure if you only look at the CMC, but for the most models they are underdone. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted March 2, 2016 Share Posted March 2, 2016 21z has not run yet Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
USCAPEWEATHERAF Posted March 2, 2016 Share Posted March 2, 2016 NAM has a more dynamic storm than the GFS and knowing that lightning strikes take strong dynamics to occur, I would say our disturbance over the western US is quite dynamic given that there are lightning strikes on the west coast of WA and OR Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JC-CT Posted March 2, 2016 Share Posted March 2, 2016 Sure if you only look at the CMC, but for the most models they are underdone.Gotcha. They should really just start inputting the SST into the models. Would make them much better. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
USCAPEWEATHERAF Posted March 2, 2016 Share Posted March 2, 2016 Dryslot, look at the NCEP site, it has the 21utc run already. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
USCAPEWEATHERAF Posted March 2, 2016 Share Posted March 2, 2016 Maybe models take into account the differential in temperatures between 850mb and the sea surface meaning this should already be a part of the dynamics the models see, which means a further northward track leads to a stronger more dynamic storm system altogether. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
USCAPEWEATHERAF Posted March 2, 2016 Share Posted March 2, 2016 That southern stream is just waiting to be tapped over the GOM. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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