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Model Mezzanine - 3rd times a charm


Baroclinic Zone

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Yeah there's def a shot for something in SE areas. We pretty much have to have a good move NW on the 12z runs for other areas to get in the game. Getting too close now to hope for a 200-300 mile jump randomly on one run.

lol. Just that kind of year. 

 

Was hoping for one last shot at something, and will hang on, but I fear the end is near. ...Unless there is that 300 hour threat looming out there somewhere. lol.

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There's definitely some more hits on the GEFS than there were yesterday afternoon.

 

Need a good NW bump on the 12z suite though for areas outside Cape/Islands and maybe adjacent far SE MA to have much of a shot at a significant event.

 

 

We might get some dying isentropic light snow from the northerly disturbance.

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There's definitely some more hits on the GEFS than there were yesterday afternoon.

 

Need a good NW bump on the 12z suite though for areas outside Cape/Islands and maybe adjacent far SE MA to have much of a shot at a significant event.

 

 

We might get some dying isentropic light snow from the northerly disturbance.

 

That's kind of what I'm looking for at this point, maybe southern areas can grab a small accumulating event. The coastal seems destined to head almost due east off OBX.

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Yeah that's definitely a better look. Almost curls that CCB right into SE MA, but just misses...Cape gets a piece though....there's a lot of weaker lift though further NW so there's general light snow for about 12-18 hours over CT/RI and MA.

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So forgive the novice question, but what's the major difference factor in between the GGEM and the GFS that causes the storm to curl up around Boston? 

 

A lot of small differences in handling the various pieces of energy in the northern hemisphere, but overall the ggem has the western ridge further west than the GFS. The 12z ggem is pushing it further east again, so they look to be correcting towards each other.

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GGEM looks like it's laying off the sauce finally...looks more realistic with a scraper now. Not too different than GFS except it doesn't have as robust a look to the north weaker snow shield as the GFS does. It does get SE MA and esp the Cape though with the steadier CCB, but not the 1-2 foot blizzard it had previously.

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Will do we miss again up here with the current setup? Does Sunday look better up here with the clipper or is that gone also?

 

 

Clipper looks toast with the Fri night system being too close. The wave spacing on these shortwaves really sucks...it's a very active flow with multiple s/ws, but they are just slightly too close together right now. If they were spaced like 3-5 degrees longitude more apart, we'd probably have an epic 7 day period. :lol:

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The overrunning 1-4 inch snows are on just about all guidance. That piece is going to happen and I will eat my words about it being over

The Euro will inevitably be much drier on the overrunning snows. I don't know why but as a whole the Euro has a major dry bias the last few years

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