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Model Mezzanine - 3rd times a charm


Baroclinic Zone

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May head to Caribou this weekend or next, but warm weather next week may be a deterrent. Fort Kent would be better but no rooms left this weekend cause of dog races.

St Johns River Valley is the place to be, Looking like mid 30's low 40's up that way right now possibly in the county
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Not a big jump but GFS with a tick NW or is it noise?

 

Small tick NW.

 

Better than nothing. It does try to make a little hook left at the last second too, which is what we'd probably need if it gets a bit closer early on. But time is starting to run out on this one. We need to see some bumps on other guidance. I'd be surprised if the GGEM still shows a full fledged 12"+ blizzard.

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GGEM came back east some...but it is still aggressive. Blizzard for E MA and RI and up into coastal Maine.

 

Sharp cutoff though...warning snows maybe to about 495 or just inside...advisory to ORH and probably only an inch or two for CT Valley. 1-2 feet for Cape to SE MA.

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GGEM came back east some...but it is still aggressive. Blizzard for E MA and RI and up into coastal Maine.

Sharp cutoff though...warning snows maybe to about 495 or just inside...advisory to ORH and probably only an inch or two for CT Valley. 1-2 feet for Cape to SE MA.

Better than the 00z Monday night run or similar?

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Better than the 00z Monday night run or similar?

 

It is better than last night's run. At leats outside of S CT...last night's run actually brought like 2-4" to S CT but went almost straight east and mostly whiffed the rest of the area.

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12-18 in N Maine forecast for Tuesday night-Wednesday night. That would be huge for them!!!

 

The NNW areas are going to see the higher totals, Less as you get further east towards CAR right now, But yeah, Big gain from Portage west to Fort Kent and down towards Madawaska

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Yeah there's def a shot for something in SE areas. We pretty much have to have a good move NW on the 12z runs for other areas to get in the game. Getting too close now to hope for a 200-300 mile jump randomly on one run.

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