RUNNAWAYICEBERG Posted February 21, 2016 Share Posted February 21, 2016 Only thing I see I miss the last couple days was some melt downs and the fact it looks like we have another cutter to deal with, Front wave just vaporizes on most guidance now and leaves with a low tracking to BUF YEa I've been out of the loop but nothing missed. On to the first week of march for signs of possible coastal. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jbenedet Posted February 21, 2016 Share Posted February 21, 2016 I'd like to see this back into around Lake Superior. Then maybe *maybe* we can get the baroclinic zone and UL jet in a favorable position for secondary cyclogenesis along the east coast. It would be nice to see that third shortwave drop in and phase earlier... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted February 21, 2016 Share Posted February 21, 2016 4km NAM for first wave Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted February 21, 2016 Share Posted February 21, 2016 4km NAM for first wave nice looks like those junkies in your hood stopped by NCEP with some chiva Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted February 21, 2016 Share Posted February 21, 2016 4km NAM for first wave Snowmap has a few inches Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Lava Rock Posted February 21, 2016 Share Posted February 21, 2016 Only thing I see I miss the last couple days was some melt downs and the fact it looks like we have another cutter to deal with, Front wave just vaporizes on most guidance now and leaves with a low tracking to BUFHooray! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
eyewall Posted February 21, 2016 Share Posted February 21, 2016 Yeah I get that but unfortunately these events are in our climo for snowfall, too. This is how you keep grabbing a few inches for the stats. Not every snow accum is going to be perfect haha. I'd enjoy 3-4" even if it pours after. Yeah I am just looking for one good track LOL, just one. As it stands the 12z GFS pretty much eliminates any front end south of the St. Lawrence river. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ApacheTrout Posted February 21, 2016 Share Posted February 21, 2016 Yeah I am just looking for one good track LOL, just one. As it stands the 12z GFS pretty much eliminates any front end south of the St. Lawrence river. It's tough to find a new track when the atmosphere has found a deep groove to our west. It's like a river channel that's so incised that it can't break into the floodplain to form a new channel. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted February 21, 2016 Share Posted February 21, 2016 Looks like another high wind setup next Wed with HWW potential. That's the only saving grace from these Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted February 21, 2016 Share Posted February 21, 2016 I'd like to see this back into around Lake Superior. Then maybe *maybe* we can get the baroclinic zone and UL jet in a favorable position for secondary cyclogenesis along the east coast. It would be nice to see that third shortwave drop in and phase earlier... Ha haa - no kidding! It's so bad at this point the best thing for those holding out for winter-ier results is to have that thing go SO far west, that your "maybe" scenario can actually happen. Otherwise, we go from a rotting polar air mass to 55 F in southerly ass hauler gales ...or do we even? General reader: I mean, this system is taking a track closer to the Cleveland Superbomb's ... But, it is a wan cancer patient on life-support by comparison of strength and so forth... I don't think the gradient on the eastern side is even that remarkable here. Either way, the track of the deep layer and the surface reflection and all that is west of the Apps. At this point it's really not very realistic to argue against that. And ...personally I don't value the GGEM enough to call that a valid counterpoint. I'm willing to say that the GGEM is grudgingly trending toward the Cleveland result, anyway ...when looking over the past 5 or so cycles. It's just inching back and forth. Late yesterday afternoon the 18z GFS seemed to offer some hope that some of the previously discussed ways and means for this to trend a bit east, might actually be taking place - alas! Since then the runs are making us laugh at those ideas for being mostly fantasy. Having giggled myself ...there is still one last tiny ember of hope, a fragile speck struggling for oxygen, and that is that still...none of this week's pattern of cluster f'ing features have been sampled over land. It may not account for much when that finally happens (overnight tonight and onwards...) no. But, if there is some fleeting chance that the interaction of the different waves vying for proxy inside the long wave could do something kind for us, it might become coherent through tomorrow. As is, no way.. I argued days ago that the writing was all the wall then, because the long wave, wave-lengths were way too stretched as it is/was. We don't typically wind up east coast lows (even secondaries struggle) when the ridge latitude anchors over Oregon. Our sweet climo ridge position for eastern amplitude is from eastern MT to western MN. That has not changed at all, all week long into this weekend, in the guidance'. It's just the rub... Massive +PNA, but for whatever reason (enter sad trumpet, wah wah waaaah) ...the +PNAP portion of the PNA has to be idiosyncratically situated slightly west. I was actually mulling this over in mind last night, this idea of a "West-based PNAP" By PNAP, we mean "Perennial North American Pattern" ... And, obviously PNA means "Pacific-North American" But, there is a difference. The former is in deference to the longer term resting state of the flow from the west coast to the east coast. That longer termed structure is represented by a slight bulge/ridge over the Rockies, and a slight counter-balancing trough situated near the Lakes/OV latitudes. When that baser structure flattens or even reverses, -PNAP; vice versa +PNAP for when it amplifies the other way. Because +PNAs in general highly correlated to ridging over western North America, the vast majority of times, a +PNA will parlay into a +PNAP. This period in question is no different, except for the rub: the ridge in the west is too far west, while still not being in opposition to the PNA/PNAP correlation. That's why I'm calling it a 'west-based PNAP'; conceptually it would really be no different than a west-based NAO. Even though none of these characteristic/qualitative observations have ever been actually refereed by official consortium ...but we all know there are consequences for subtle and gross variation in known flow constructs, so hell - it is what it is. West-based +PNAP = cosmic dildo. I've already moved onto the next piece of business, and will let any unforeseeable modulations that may or may not occur over the next 24 hours play out by dumb luck and rarefied results. I'm looking at the overall teleconnectors for the next two weeks and they are even more exotica and impressive for storminess. The PNA is hugely positive, and now, we are getting a brief plunge in the NAO (of course- wouldn't you know). D7 has a very impressive arctic siege on the Lakes to NNE, and it is not entirely certain how far that comes south. It's actually been on the charts for days - similarly, the last arctic outbreak did a similar charted run-up, too. ... anyway, several of the 00z GFS ensemble members argue for a lead 500 mb core to pass under LI, as opposed to straight E through NNE... Should that happen, it is both taking place on top of the greatest +PNA amplitude (tele), but also , ...right around the time of this new depression in the NAO. That all piques my interest as something to watch for - Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SR Airglow Posted February 21, 2016 Share Posted February 21, 2016 No mention of the 12z GGEM? Nice little nuke for wave 1 there. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
eyewall Posted February 21, 2016 Share Posted February 21, 2016 It's tough to find a new track when the atmosphere has found a deep groove to our west. It's like a river channel that's so incised that it can't break into the floodplain to form a new channel. Well at least I know now what the worst possible winter looks like around here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted February 21, 2016 Share Posted February 21, 2016 No mention of the 12z GGEM? Nice little nuke for wave 1 there. hi ggem.png snowmap.png Theese runs of the NAM and now Canadian remind me of the thump DC area had last week with that front running wave. They had a ton of forcing and ended up with 6+ in some places and then the cutter came in with its Humid eraser. Same kind of deal centered over the northeast this time Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted February 21, 2016 Share Posted February 21, 2016 Theese runs of the NAM and now Canadian remind me of the thump DC area had last week with that front running wave. They had a ton of forcing and ended up with 6+ in some places and then the cutter came in with its Humid eraser. Same kind of deal centered over the northeast this time Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted February 21, 2016 Share Posted February 21, 2016 Interesting. 1St wave is starting to pick up steam. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SR Airglow Posted February 21, 2016 Share Posted February 21, 2016 Without being able to see 850/surface yet, the Ukie looks interesting as well for Tuesday evening/Wednesday morning. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted February 21, 2016 Share Posted February 21, 2016 I would like to see other guidance show wave 1 like the Canadian has. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SR Airglow Posted February 21, 2016 Share Posted February 21, 2016 12z Ukie No idea how much of that(or any of it) is snow, but if it's got a similar temp profile to the GGEM, that's warning snows for some areas. Edit: It's a nice cold rain in Boston and Hartford, don't have full maps yet but I assume it's the same across SNE. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorEastermass128 Posted February 21, 2016 Share Posted February 21, 2016 12z Ukie interesting one.gif interesting two.gif No idea how much of that(or any of it) is snow, but if it's got a similar temp profile to the GGEM, that's warning snows for some areas. Edit: It's a nice cold rain in Boston and Hartford, don't have full maps yet but I assume it's the same across SNE. Looks like a lot of rain up to PF Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted February 21, 2016 Share Posted February 21, 2016 Heh, yeah ... Lance Bozart special? I recall Will was mentioning that last week... Seemed to fade tho - but, we've already had one whiff come hugely back inside of 24s in the guidance, once this season ... s'pose it can happen again. But then, 'little critter that bites with rain'? somehow I don't think that's what folks have in mind... As to next weekend, it seems NCEP is hinting at it too, as they mention uncertainty in handling those deep height falls that exists in all guidance... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cold Miser Posted February 21, 2016 Share Posted February 21, 2016 meh. First wave comes in gives more seasonal padding then, just like that... it's gone like the hair on Kevin's head. Big deal. A few more of these set ups and I will be close to my average for the year. Then, in 10 years when I look back at my seasonal snow totals for 2015/16 will make it seem like the season wasn't terrible when in fact it was. ...is. ...Just one big smoke and mirrors act in the end. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted February 21, 2016 Share Posted February 21, 2016 meh. First wave comes in gives more seasonal padding then, just like that... it's gone like the hair on Kevin's head. Big deal. A few more of these set ups and I will be close to my average for the year. Then, in 10 years when I look back at my seasonal snow totals for 2015/16 will make it seem like the season wasn't terrible when in fact it was. ...is. ...Just one big smoke and mirrors act in the end. Except you were bald by age 25 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted February 21, 2016 Share Posted February 21, 2016 12z Ukie interesting one.gif interesting two.gif No idea how much of that(or any of it) is snow, but if it's got a similar temp profile to the GGEM, that's warning snows for some areas. Edit: It's a nice cold rain in Boston and Hartford, don't have full maps yet but I assume it's the same across SNE. These profiles seem way too warm compared to the nam and ggem. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
codfishsnowman Posted February 21, 2016 Share Posted February 21, 2016 well if wave one really has something to it, can't be too greedy....kinda late for saving snows for more than a day or two anyways if wave one could even put down an inch or two i would take it...there are not many options lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cold Miser Posted February 21, 2016 Share Posted February 21, 2016 Except you were bald by age 25 Close. Started losing it at age 18, but I had so much freaking hair it took a while for it to go. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted February 21, 2016 Share Posted February 21, 2016 Silence is very telling Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted February 21, 2016 Share Posted February 21, 2016 Not sure Ukie is rain Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted February 21, 2016 Share Posted February 21, 2016 Not sure Ukie is rain Prob starts as snow for a couple inches (esp interior) and then I think the interior needs to watch for a prolonged period of ZR....we are getting a little wave to move just SE of SNE...that's gonna make the ageostrophic flow pretty northerly and even could cause a "cold tuck". It depends how defined that sfc wave is though...Ukie isn't as defined at GGEM or some other guidance. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted February 21, 2016 Share Posted February 21, 2016 Yeah even if the second wave furnaces, it's possible a prolonged wintry deal in the interior if so much as a weak wave moves below SNE. You can sort of envision that tug SW Will allude to, if it worked out. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dendrite Posted February 21, 2016 Share Posted February 21, 2016 Euro basically says what first wave? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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