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Model Mezzanine - 3rd times a charm


Baroclinic Zone

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Next snow threat is only 6 days away.   :D

 

Yeah, obviously it won't verify like it is showing at day 6. But with the previous storm moving out faster on the GFS it gave it more room to develop. The Euro had accumulating snow for western SNE too, didn't it? We haven't had those two models agreeing on snow for SNE in a while, would be a nice sign if the Euro doesn't squash it today.

 

Every snow storm was 6 days out at some point.

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12z navgem is so far NW it might even be warm for eastern areas. Definitely further NW than 6z.

The NavGEM rule has worked well all winter, it's seemed to have a handle on the overall pattern well in that it's always been on the NW envelope of guidance with any well developed system, even when some other globals were suppressed

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Hi WW! Was definitely referring to the February 8th blizzard of this year. In my post, I stated that I had traveled to the SNE coastal areas of Plymouth and Marshfield, respectively, to document the event.

As someone who has now documented the last 5 East Coast blizzards (3/26/14, 1/27/15, 2/14/15, 1/22-23/16, and 2/8/16), I can assure you that I have a fairly good understanding of what a genuine NE blizzard looks like (albeit not the experience of many on this board). I'm certainly not suggesting that the 2/8/16 blizzard was a repeat of 2/8/78...but it also wasn't remotely close to a "weak sauce" event for the SNE coastline from Marshfield SEwd to Cape Cod. In fact, blizzard conditions verified all throughout this area. It was a fairly short duration blizzard that was only accompanied by 8-11" snowfall totals, but it was intense while it lasted...especially at Plymouth harbor where I filmed this storm, and out on the Cape! Moreover, there was major storm surge flooding in Marshfield following the late morning high tide that engulfed some homes, businesses, and vehicles.

Have all of this documented on tape that I will eventually get around to posting online in the near future. Might try to at least post a short clip of "raw footage" by this weekend, to share what it was like in the aforementioned areas.

Being that blizzard conditions weren't experienced in your locale and seeing that my home location is in SE NC, I could see where you might've presumed I didn't know what a true SNE blizzard looks like.

I apologize. I guess I stand corrected. I remember many on here out in Eastern Mass saying it didn't deliver as much as advertised. For the Cape and other areas it looks like it was intense for a while. My Mistake. It was a nice lil event here with almost 6 inches. Plus I completely forgot about that far SE areas did have a blizzard warning for that one. Again, I apologize for sounding dismissive and for assuming you didn't understand what a blizzard was being from NC. My Bad.

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