eduggs Posted February 28, 2016 Share Posted February 28, 2016 12z CMC is a hit for Sat. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
eduggs Posted February 28, 2016 Share Posted February 28, 2016 CMC looks kind of like the 0z Euro. Big hit for eastern sections. Probably plowable snow for all of SNE. So we wait at least another day before we lock in the whiff. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted February 28, 2016 Share Posted February 28, 2016 Yeah hopefully the gfs throws up on itself again. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted February 28, 2016 Share Posted February 28, 2016 That's a heck of a storm on the Canadian. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
eduggs Posted February 28, 2016 Share Posted February 28, 2016 It's amazing how many snow events ALB has had this winter between 120 and 168hrs on the guidance. Even if you want to say it's because we have several global models run multiple times a day(which is a good point), that doesn't fully explain it. Choose only the once-a-day 12z runs at any time from beyond 72hrs on any model and the average modeled output at ALB would be 30"+ for the year. Instead we sit at 8", which has really been much closer to 0" than it would seem. 10 or so "events" adding to single digits with slant sticking in full effect at the airport. It's barely snowed at 3k feet in the Catskills. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted February 28, 2016 Share Posted February 28, 2016 Wow that's a monster hit on the GGEM....of course too bad it's 6 days out. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JC-CT Posted February 28, 2016 Share Posted February 28, 2016 It's also not really the same solution as 0z. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
eduggs Posted February 28, 2016 Share Posted February 28, 2016 Wow that's a monster hit on the GGEM....of course too bad it's 6 days out. Can't say there's been nothing to track this winter. The event's are perpetually 6 or 7 days out. One thing I like at this juncture is the flow looks comparably less chaotic than normal for this winter. The fewer shortwaves the better. The big negative is how different the GFS looks even 72 hours out. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted February 28, 2016 Share Posted February 28, 2016 It's also not really the same solution as 0z. Its better Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted February 28, 2016 Share Posted February 28, 2016 Weenie fodder Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JC-CT Posted February 28, 2016 Share Posted February 28, 2016 Its betterIt's discontinuous Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted February 28, 2016 Share Posted February 28, 2016 It's discontinuous What? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted February 28, 2016 Share Posted February 28, 2016 The issue is even if the gfs caves.....if the other models cave say even 30% (snowier versions) it becomes much less of a snow event on those models. The gfs has been pretty wild lately, so hopefully it's lost at the moment. Still a bit concerning. The Canadian wouldn't sway me either way this far out....although it's good to see it Not whiffing. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted February 28, 2016 Share Posted February 28, 2016 The issue is even if the gfs caves.....if the other models cave say even 30% (snowier versions) it becomes much less of a snow event on those models. The gfs has been pretty wild lately, so hopefully it's lost at the moment. Still a bit concerning. The Canadian wouldn't sway me either way this far out....although it's good to see it Not whiffing. Ukie doesnt have anything at 120 but it's building a low down south at 144. Interesting. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JC-CT Posted February 28, 2016 Share Posted February 28, 2016 The issue is even if the gfs caves.....if the other models cave say even 30% (snowier versions) it becomes much less of a snow event on those models. The gfs has been pretty wild lately, so hopefully it's lost at the moment. Still a bit concerning. The Canadian wouldn't sway me either way this far out....although it's good to see it Not whiffing.Ukie still says what storm, so it's not alone. But it looks like it might like the next one ala yesterday's 12z JMA. But that's extrapolating and who cares that far out. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JC-CT Posted February 28, 2016 Share Posted February 28, 2016 Ukie doesnt have anything at 120 but it's building a low down south at 144. Interesting.Boring Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TauntonBlizzard2013 Posted February 28, 2016 Share Posted February 28, 2016 Weenie fodder cmc_snow_acc_boston_27.png Congrats TAN Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted February 28, 2016 Share Posted February 28, 2016 A cutter and a whiff. About on par with the season's personality. Though, I wouldn't put too much stock into what it shows. #itsgarbage Its been over for awhile. Representing the $hit cherry atop the proverbial frustration cake, I sit at only 4.6" above futility. I would have gladly traded the inverted tough crap to see futility. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted February 28, 2016 Share Posted February 28, 2016 Boring Looks as though you've finally come over the the dark (realistic) side....welcome. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted February 28, 2016 Share Posted February 28, 2016 Yea, EPS trended decidedly worse. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JC-CT Posted February 28, 2016 Share Posted February 28, 2016 Looks as though you've finally come over the the dark (realistic) side....welcome.I think there is one more shot after next weekend, but it could turn into literally nothing. It's just too far out to care, so it's boring until then if next weekend doesn't pan out, and then it looks like we're done barring a fluke event towards the end of the month.I mean, yes I'll write off threats when I think they are done, and the season when I think that it's done. I haven't written off next weekend, I just don't give two shts what the ggem shows at 144 lol. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted February 28, 2016 Share Posted February 28, 2016 Wow that's a monster hit on the GGEM....of course too bad it's 6 days out. not attempting to atone for any "monster" ness ... but i was mentioning in the other thread about ncep's views on that - they actually side with more robust system than the erstwhile blase appeals of the gefs and gfs - interesting... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
78Blizzard Posted February 28, 2016 Share Posted February 28, 2016 Big differences at 108 hr between cmc gem and gfs: http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/?model=gem®ion=us&pkg=z500_mslp&runtime=2016022812&fh=108&xpos=0&ypos=317 http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/?model=gfs®ion=us&pkg=z500_mslp&runtime=2016022812&fh=108&xpos=0&ypos=322 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted February 28, 2016 Share Posted February 28, 2016 Yea, EPS trended decidedly worse. Mixed solutions Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted February 28, 2016 Share Posted February 28, 2016 not attempting to atone for any "monster" ness ... but i was mentioning in the other thread about ncep's views on that - they actually side with more robust system than the erstwhile blase appeals of the gefs and gfs - interesting... I hope so.....I'd love to add one more wrong call to my rather lengthy lists of seasonal indictments Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JC-CT Posted February 28, 2016 Share Posted February 28, 2016 Enthuised Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted February 28, 2016 Share Posted February 28, 2016 Mixed solutions Yes, there is a tapestry of ensemble solutions at day 6, thus there is some variance. But the MEAN is decidedly more seaward. #makethatpiggysquealwhenyouapplyhislipstickoinkoink Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JC-CT Posted February 28, 2016 Share Posted February 28, 2016 Last chance? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted February 28, 2016 Share Posted February 28, 2016 I hope so.....I'd love to add one more wrong call to my rather lengthy lists of seasonal indictments pretty funny dude Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted February 28, 2016 Share Posted February 28, 2016 Euro sleeps with the fishes. Figures. Cold and dry will be epic. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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