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Model Mezzanine - 3rd times a charm


Baroclinic Zone

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And it will suppress the late week storm. Sweet.

There's no reason to root against the midweek event.  The PV that squashes the followup is largely independent of the midweek wave that dampens out in the longwave flow.  A favorable track and evolution for Wed. does not necessarily harm our chances for something to follow IMO.

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There's no reason to root against the midweek event. The PV that squashes the followup is largely independent of the midweek wave that dampens out in the longwave flow. A favorable track and evolution for Wed. does not necessarily harm our chances for something to follow IMO.

. In this gfs run it seemed more independent. I would still argue you don't want a power house storm either way. It cuts and/or shoves baroclinic zone father offshore. Mid week is more for NY state so you have a better chance.
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. In this gfs run it seemed more independent. I would still argue you don't want a power house storm either way. It cuts and/or shoves baroclinic zone father offshore. Mid week is more for NY state so you have a better chance.

I agree.  But 60-72hrs is plenty of time for the baroclinic zone to recover.  The problem is the evolution of the height field to our north.  Even with a completely suppressive PV, the southern stream still almost gets a storm to the mid-atl o the 12z GFS.  That's encouraging.

 

Mid week is more likely to cut or track just inland.  But a few ensemble members slide it further southeast, hitting coastal areas pretty good.  A weak, flat wave could work.  The shortwave could also dig further south, which would allow more of a northerly cold air drainage.  Then we might be able to manage a more developed coastal low.

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I agree. But 60-72hrs is plenty of time for the baroclinic zone to recover. The problem is the evolution of the height field to our north. Even with a completely suppressive PV, the southern stream still almost gets a storm to the mid-atl o the 12z GFS. That's encouraging.

Mid week is more likely to cut or track just inland. But a few ensemble members slide it further southeast, hitting coastal areas pretty good. A weak, flat wave could work. The shortwave could also dig further south, which would allow more of a northerly cold air drainage. Then we might be able to manage a more developed coastal low.

I saw the suppression a mile away when that PV was parked in srn Canada. We need it to either locate further north, or have a vort lobe rotate on the SW side of it and phase in. We'll see what the EC does. As far as mid week goes, I'm not

Too excited. I guess best bet is rain to snow for your area maybe into central MA or something...but that could easily be all rain too. You certainly stand a better chance so hopefully you guys can get something.

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I saw the suppression a mile away when that PV was parked in srn Canada. We need it to either locate further north, or have a vort lobe rotate on the SW side of it and phase in. We'll see what the EC does. As far as mid week goes, I'm not

Too excited. I guess best bet is rain to snow for your area maybe into central MA or something...but that could easily be all rain too. You certainly stand a better chance so hopefully you guys can get something.

I'd like to fast forward to mid month and be done.

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I'm telling you, view the least snowy solution, and there is your outcome.

I've already tried science this season, and it didn't work.

You know I keep thinking about the forecasts for a big second half and it's been so close. Who is having a very snowy run so far in February and doesn't appear to be stopping is parts of Ontario and Quebec. Quebec just north of Montreal up through Quebec City has been very snow with good hit after hit. We were close but not enough...move this whole pattern south a couple hundred miles and that consistent snow zone in Quebec moves smack into C/NNE.

Like this is the 12z GFS with a bunch more snow coming for that region. Been a snowy winter relatively just north of the St Lawerance Valley as that's been a sweet spot.

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Each successive run is a little worse than the one before since about ...Jan 20th this season.  

 

unless it's unrelenting nothingness one is rooting for - if so... this has been and appears to continue being, your Feb 2015 ;) 

 

Because of the seasonal trend being so persistent ... I think any winter result over the next 7 to 10 days will not be successfully modeled until it is yesterday - 

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Lol bullseye right over Eyewall.

That's one of the better Euro runs I've seen lately. The GFS tosses out fantasy snow like candy, the Euro is harder to get ;).

That hour 96-102 time is pure gold.

Definitely one to watch for you guys down to NY state. Maybe even into central MA if it could be flatter, but that's probably an uphill battle like Will said.

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Lol bullseye right over Eyewall.

That's one of the better Euro runs I've seen lately. The GFS tosses out fantasy snow like candy, the Euro is harder to get ;).

That hour 96-102 time is pure gold.

Yeah that was a great run specially for you guys up there I don't know how much more east this can get we would need probably another 75 miles east here
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