MJO812 Posted February 27, 2016 Share Posted February 27, 2016 What about the midweek storm? Western NY hit Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted February 27, 2016 Share Posted February 27, 2016 Ukie with storm 1 Storm 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
eduggs Posted February 27, 2016 Share Posted February 27, 2016 And it will suppress the late week storm. Sweet. There's no reason to root against the midweek event. The PV that squashes the followup is largely independent of the midweek wave that dampens out in the longwave flow. A favorable track and evolution for Wed. does not necessarily harm our chances for something to follow IMO. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
thomasnh Posted February 27, 2016 Share Posted February 27, 2016 We rain midweek, we miss, we warm. Hope southern areas can cash in before the torch later in the month. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted February 27, 2016 Share Posted February 27, 2016 There's no reason to root against the midweek event. The PV that squashes the followup is largely independent of the midweek wave that dampens out in the longwave flow. A favorable track and evolution for Wed. does not necessarily harm our chances for something to follow IMO.. In this gfs run it seemed more independent. I would still argue you don't want a power house storm either way. It cuts and/or shoves baroclinic zone father offshore. Mid week is more for NY state so you have a better chance. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted February 27, 2016 Share Posted February 27, 2016 UKIE another nice rain to snow bomb Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted February 27, 2016 Share Posted February 27, 2016 Another shift east. Euro is coming east Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
eduggs Posted February 27, 2016 Share Posted February 27, 2016 . In this gfs run it seemed more independent. I would still argue you don't want a power house storm either way. It cuts and/or shoves baroclinic zone father offshore. Mid week is more for NY state so you have a better chance. I agree. But 60-72hrs is plenty of time for the baroclinic zone to recover. The problem is the evolution of the height field to our north. Even with a completely suppressive PV, the southern stream still almost gets a storm to the mid-atl o the 12z GFS. That's encouraging. Mid week is more likely to cut or track just inland. But a few ensemble members slide it further southeast, hitting coastal areas pretty good. A weak, flat wave could work. The shortwave could also dig further south, which would allow more of a northerly cold air drainage. Then we might be able to manage a more developed coastal low. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted February 27, 2016 Share Posted February 27, 2016 I agree. But 60-72hrs is plenty of time for the baroclinic zone to recover. The problem is the evolution of the height field to our north. Even with a completely suppressive PV, the southern stream still almost gets a storm to the mid-atl o the 12z GFS. That's encouraging. Mid week is more likely to cut or track just inland. But a few ensemble members slide it further southeast, hitting coastal areas pretty good. A weak, flat wave could work. The shortwave could also dig further south, which would allow more of a northerly cold air drainage. Then we might be able to manage a more developed coastal low. I saw the suppression a mile away when that PV was parked in srn Canada. We need it to either locate further north, or have a vort lobe rotate on the SW side of it and phase in. We'll see what the EC does. As far as mid week goes, I'm notToo excited. I guess best bet is rain to snow for your area maybe into central MA or something...but that could easily be all rain too. You certainly stand a better chance so hopefully you guys can get something. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted February 27, 2016 Share Posted February 27, 2016 We just can't get it right. And you don't think that changes over to snow at 126 or so for ORH west? I'm telling you, view the least snowy solution, and there is your outcome. I've already tried science this season, and it didn't work. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted February 27, 2016 Share Posted February 27, 2016 I saw the suppression a mile away when that PV was parked in srn Canada. We need it to either locate further north, or have a vort lobe rotate on the SW side of it and phase in. We'll see what the EC does. As far as mid week goes, I'm not Too excited. I guess best bet is rain to snow for your area maybe into central MA or something...but that could easily be all rain too. You certainly stand a better chance so hopefully you guys can get something. I'd like to fast forward to mid month and be done. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
powderfreak Posted February 27, 2016 Share Posted February 27, 2016 I'm telling you, view the least snowy solution, and there is your outcome. I've already tried science this season, and it didn't work. You know I keep thinking about the forecasts for a big second half and it's been so close. Who is having a very snowy run so far in February and doesn't appear to be stopping is parts of Ontario and Quebec. Quebec just north of Montreal up through Quebec City has been very snow with good hit after hit. We were close but not enough...move this whole pattern south a couple hundred miles and that consistent snow zone in Quebec moves smack into C/NNE. Like this is the 12z GFS with a bunch more snow coming for that region. Been a snowy winter relatively just north of the St Lawerance Valley as that's been a sweet spot. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted February 27, 2016 Share Posted February 27, 2016 Each successive run is a little worse than the one before since about ...Jan 20th this season. unless it's unrelenting nothingness one is rooting for - if so... this has been and appears to continue being, your Feb 2015 Because of the seasonal trend being so persistent ... I think any winter result over the next 7 to 10 days will not be successfully modeled until it is yesterday - Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dendrite Posted February 27, 2016 Share Posted February 27, 2016 Euro is coming in much flatter for midweek. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dendrite Posted February 27, 2016 Share Posted February 27, 2016 Still too far west...looks like we're nearing more of a concensus. Maybe PF can sneak a decent event out of this. Track is right over SNE. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ineedsnow Posted February 27, 2016 Share Posted February 27, 2016 One more move like that we are good significantly better Euro is coming in much flatter for midweek. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted February 27, 2016 Share Posted February 27, 2016 Congrats PF on the 12z Euro Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted February 27, 2016 Share Posted February 27, 2016 There's the first jump east. By tomorrow PM it'll be snow for all Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted February 27, 2016 Share Posted February 27, 2016 I'm def not dismissing the mid week system at this point. It's an uphill battle but doable. Ukie is prob accumulating snow on the back end and euro is getting quite close. Good run for NNE on euro. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RUNNAWAYICEBERG Posted February 27, 2016 Share Posted February 27, 2016 Fri system looking better too on euro. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorEastermass128 Posted February 27, 2016 Share Posted February 27, 2016 I'm def not dismissing the mid week system at this point. It's an uphill battle but doable. Ukie is prob accumulating snow on the back end and euro is getting quite close. Good run for NNE on euro.I'm pulling for NNE on this one. How's the late week threat look for SNE? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ineedsnow Posted February 27, 2016 Share Posted February 27, 2016 Late week still south but looks alot better Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mreaves Posted February 27, 2016 Share Posted February 27, 2016 Congrats PF on the 12z EuroF**k yeah! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
eduggs Posted February 27, 2016 Share Posted February 27, 2016 Fri system looking better too on euro. Yeah trof structure and coastal low are further north than the GFS. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
eduggs Posted February 27, 2016 Share Posted February 27, 2016 The EC clips the Cape pretty good late Fri into Sat. Pretty close call. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted February 27, 2016 Share Posted February 27, 2016 F**k yeah! Would be nice to just get one to go right for us up here this winter Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
powderfreak Posted February 27, 2016 Share Posted February 27, 2016 Congrats PF on the 12z EuroLol bullseye right over Eyewall.That's one of the better Euro runs I've seen lately. The GFS tosses out fantasy snow like candy, the Euro is harder to get . That hour 96-102 time is pure gold. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted February 27, 2016 Share Posted February 27, 2016 The EC clips the Cape pretty good late Fri into Sat. Pretty close call. It gives them over 10-12. Would be nice if that could be more region wide. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted February 27, 2016 Share Posted February 27, 2016 Lol bullseye right over Eyewall. That's one of the better Euro runs I've seen lately. The GFS tosses out fantasy snow like candy, the Euro is harder to get . That hour 96-102 time is pure gold. Definitely one to watch for you guys down to NY state. Maybe even into central MA if it could be flatter, but that's probably an uphill battle like Will said. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted February 27, 2016 Share Posted February 27, 2016 Lol bullseye right over Eyewall. That's one of the better Euro runs I've seen lately. The GFS tosses out fantasy snow like candy, the Euro is harder to get . That hour 96-102 time is pure gold. Yeah that was a great run specially for you guys up there I don't know how much more east this can get we would need probably another 75 miles east here Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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