WinterWolf Posted February 20, 2016 Share Posted February 20, 2016 I thought there were some interesting changes on this 18z GFS run, actually... Namely, the whole structure of ...everything is clicked east some 3 longitude on the whole. Also, there is slightly less front side DPVA on this run, and as a result, ...comparing former run-time intervals, the low in western PA is substantially weaker on this run than the prior two cycles. That's important, because there's enough cold ...albeit barely, that if weaker jet field rides in at 850 mb (because the cyclogen is weaker SW of us), that means the erosion is slow and the cold fights back (probably) with somewhat longer stayed lead-side ageostrophic drain... Also, the 500 mb has more dynamic wind energy in the southern aspect of the trough, showing marked "sharpening" structure more as it nears the Carolina coast compared to the deeper closed northern aspect of the trough on prior runs... If nothing else ...these morphologies should remind as that at D5/6 there is plenty of time for this to augment. Also, tho less dependable over all ...let us remind that there were a couple of other model types with substantially more wintry appeal over all. I know...I know. It is hard if not unwilling to keep an open mind/perspective on matters when your ass is too entirely sore by unrelenting bad luck all winter. Add in, people just straight up feel more comfortable with an actual system in the right time/place/intensity on the actual chart - understood. But objectively, I'm not ready to sign off on this as an 86er just yet. The stuff we talked about early, re the follow-up wave perhaps pushing/correcting the lead more E is still not resolved in my mind; additionally and related to ... all the governing mechanics to all this cluster f is out over the Pac - lots could morph around when this stuff starts coming over land in 24 to 36 hours. Good post Tip! Very good points to ponder. Perhaps some changes may be afoot? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NeonPeon Posted February 20, 2016 Share Posted February 20, 2016 Based on perusing both the model threads... I'm glad I'm in Iceland right now. Sent from my SAMSUNG-SM-N900A using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
peteradiator Posted February 20, 2016 Share Posted February 20, 2016 Im finally understanding Typhoon. He's saying this thing looks weaker at the southwest PA area. This gives cold air to trickle south easier than if it were the amped up northern trend. My favorite thing about Tips post is his mention of how things look more amped to the south or towards Carolina coast which in combination with the weaker system leaves room for a more dominant low to possible form of the east coast. I know that is more than he probably meant but I still like slightly east and slower to grow with my (favorite new word) ageostrophic flow of cold keeping old man winter around a little longer. Lastly, thanks for the hope Typhoon! I'm lucky cause I always root for the impossible and losing doesn't make me bitter. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted February 21, 2016 Share Posted February 21, 2016 I was curious if Steve knows where Pitt isLol oh IDK Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
codfishsnowman Posted February 21, 2016 Share Posted February 21, 2016 I said it looked like a cutter 4 days ago, mentioned four or five times that the ensembles continued to show a cutter as a distinct possibility. I've said all along that the ukmet gave me pause due to its hot streak, I said two posts before the one you quoted that I thought rain for everyone in NE was the most likely solution at this point. i noted all the same things and agree whole heartedly and i think it is going to get a lot worse Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
codfishsnowman Posted February 21, 2016 Share Posted February 21, 2016 lol two Ls in semi favorable positions....but I think early March has to produce at least a modest event for the interior as they are not going down in flames quite this badly...likely bad but not quite this terrible Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
peteradiator Posted February 21, 2016 Share Posted February 21, 2016 I don't think east of Worchester Mass has as much to hope for as NNE. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JC-CT Posted February 21, 2016 Share Posted February 21, 2016 Lol oh IDK K thanks for posting that 2 hours ago. Of course you meant a double barrel low on an ensemble mean at what, 114 hours? That's definitely "like PITT or CPA". Fire up the lawn thread since you cancelled snow for the rest of winter. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CNY-LES FREAK Posted February 21, 2016 Share Posted February 21, 2016 After the 60F temp along the coastal areas of DE ME today, who wants snow anymore as I'm looking forward to Spring, which won't ever come probably. We'll be in the cross-hairs of a, somewhat cooled off Atlantic, and BD CF's that are quite common to the NE area during Spring, but lets hope its a different story this year!! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
codfishsnowman Posted February 21, 2016 Share Posted February 21, 2016 the nam is a hot mess Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allsnow Posted February 21, 2016 Share Posted February 21, 2016 GFS brings back Chicagos blizzard Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted February 21, 2016 Share Posted February 21, 2016 GGEM is gonna be good for at least NNE I think. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted February 21, 2016 Share Posted February 21, 2016 Yeah it actually tracks the low from like ACY to BOS...good hit for PF and probably N NH. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ENYsnow Posted February 21, 2016 Share Posted February 21, 2016 GGEM is gonna be good for at least NNE I think. Really the only hope for the interior.. highly doubt the southern stream wave ends up that far out ahead though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted February 21, 2016 Share Posted February 21, 2016 Really the only hope for the interior.. highly doubt the southern stream wave ends up that far out ahead though. Yeah its an outlier right now...but it did trend east some from 12z which had it up the HV. I'd want to see other guidance do something similar of course. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ENYsnow Posted February 21, 2016 Share Posted February 21, 2016 Yeah its an outlier right now...but it did trend east some from 12z which had it up the HV. I'd want to see other guidance do something similar of course. How did the CMC handle last weeks ROC snow bomb? Completely different set up since there's bigger phase issues but I seem to remember it caught on to the more amped solution pretty quick. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
eyewall Posted February 21, 2016 Share Posted February 21, 2016 The 0z Euro says turn out the lights and head to the quarry. Nice hit for portions of IN, Lower MI, and Ontario with the Wed/Thu storm. We rat. The emsembles are in good agreement on this as well at this point. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CNY-LES FREAK Posted February 21, 2016 Share Posted February 21, 2016 IDK, the SW responsible for the cyclogenesis is still located out in the NWPAC, where we all know, data is sparse. It comes on land in about 18-24hrs on the Euro,30 on the GFS andv finally 36 hrs on the GGEM, so I'll just wait till 12Z MON, which is obviously 7AM tomorrow to see what this rather strung out ball of Energy does as it crosses the Rockies. I realize were within the Euro's wheelhouse, but even the EURO is infallible so I'll wait to 12Z Monday when it finally comes ashore in a more data juiced area! They've come into a little better agreement the last couple days but that doesn't mean it won't change, so Ima gonna wait before I throw in the towel. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
powderfreak Posted February 21, 2016 Share Posted February 21, 2016 The 0z Euro says turn out the lights and head to the quarry. Nice hit for portions of IN, Lower MI, and Ontario with the Wed/Thu storm. We rat. The emsembles are in good agreement on this as well at this point. 0z EURO has 3-6" front end. We'd take it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HoarfrostHubb Posted February 21, 2016 Share Posted February 21, 2016 Need some help from the 12z suite. I think this one is cooked (mid week). Hopefully NNE can get something Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
moneypitmike Posted February 21, 2016 Share Posted February 21, 2016 Need some help from the 12z suite. I think this one is cooked (mid week). Hopefully NNE can get something Maybe it can cut even further west and give us less rain. On second thought, that wouldn't be good for our never-ending drought. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted February 21, 2016 Share Posted February 21, 2016 Need some help from the 12z suite. I think this one is cooked (mid week). Hopefully NNE can get something It's been done for awhile. Anything the first wave gives, will be wiped out by the beast looming. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tamarack Posted February 21, 2016 Share Posted February 21, 2016 0z EURO has 3-6" front end. We'd take it. Maybe my third "3 and 6" storm in 10 days - 3" snow gone in 6 hr. More likely a coating followed by ZR before the deluge arrives. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
eyewall Posted February 21, 2016 Share Posted February 21, 2016 0z EURO has 3-6" front end. We'd take it. Yeah but it will end as stick season here after the storm. You guys as always stand a chance at some gain of course. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
powderfreak Posted February 21, 2016 Share Posted February 21, 2016 Yeah but it will end as stick season here after the storm. You guys as always stand a chance at some gain of course. Yeah I get that but unfortunately these events are in our climo for snowfall, too. This is how you keep grabbing a few inches for the stats. Not every snow accum is going to be perfect haha. I'd enjoy 3-4" even if it pours after. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted February 21, 2016 Share Posted February 21, 2016 That second storm will get 50's back up to the ski resorts..Almost a carbon copy of last week's cutter. they seriously should just consider ending it Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
alex Posted February 21, 2016 Share Posted February 21, 2016 That was still a net gain for us... I'd hit it at this desperate point That second storm will get 50's back up to the ski resorts..Almost a carbon copy of last week's cutter. they seriously should just consider ending it Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted February 21, 2016 Share Posted February 21, 2016 That was still a net gain for us... I'd hit it at this desperate point Just brutal for you guys. Really sucks. One of those years you hope never happens. I know so many friends down here that cancelled trips to VT this year. Or went and said it wasn't even worth skiing. Maybe a late season 2 footer will give you guys a few good weeks Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
peteradiator Posted February 21, 2016 Share Posted February 21, 2016 if we get any late season deep pow days its going to be funny seeing everyone smiling and hooting then after two runs in pain and agony from the first pow day on the legs! could be a lot of strains that day if it ever comes. ill still take it however. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted February 21, 2016 Share Posted February 21, 2016 Only thing I see I miss the last couple days was some melt downs and the fact it looks like we have another cutter to deal with, Front wave just vaporizes on most guidance now and leaves with a low tracking to BUF Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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