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Model Mezzanine - 3rd times a charm


Baroclinic Zone

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Well I'm not talking about the season.....that's another story. It would end it on a nice note though if we had a decent storm. I like the look later next week. Hopefully it holds. IMO the risk is not a cutter, it's OTS.

Looks like the furnace comes rest of the month after the 10th. if next week doesn't happen. we done

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We just can't get it right. And you don't think that changes over to snow at 126 or so for ORH west?

Maybe. It's sort of tough to extrapolate. Anyways, my previous post is no different in any other winters. Those are things we always deal with. But I like the look later next week and still need to watch mid week.
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Wednesday really doesn't have to tick much further south on the consensus of guidance to be a pretty significant system.

I'll take a Wed. storm.  I have no faith in some distant future setup that might pan out.  Just get something servicable under 72hours.

 

I can see why people along the southeast coast would be looking towards the next one.  But Wed could still trend into a SNE snow event.  And I also think there's enough room for another event on Sat, especially if Wed isn't really would up.  Something like a 6z GFS solution shifted a bit east.

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Gfs may be too flat next week.

Maybe. Most of the GEFS are on the flatter side too though. EPS mean looks a bit flatter than 12z so I assume there's more members on the less amped side. I feel like eyewall saying this, but it just seems like we can't line up the stars for even a moderate event this season. It's just a lot of bad luck though. DCA, NYC, ROC, and FNT have all gotten some biggies.
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Maybe. Most of the GEFS are on the flatter side too though. EPS mean looks a bit flatter than 12z so I assume there's more members on the less amped side. I feel like eyewall saying this, but it just seems like we can't line up the stars for even a moderate event this season. It's just a lot of bad luck though. DCA, NYC, ROC, and FNT have all gotten some biggies.

Even TOL has had a nice 12-14" event ;).

It is crazy though how hard it has been to get a moderate like 4-8" straight snow event in NNE this winter. My largest snow still hasn't been higher than 4".

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Not the direction one would have hoped the ensuing model runs would take, since the pendulum swung back in favor of winter weather enthusiasts, yesterday.  There's still hope ... the UKMET and GFS seem to favor things coming east, so all's not lost.  We just didn't get a demonstrative agreement and more eastward focus. 

 

About half the 12 GEFs ensemble members look transitional, rain to snow ...or more winter-like in general, with coherent cyclogenesis more on the EC...  That's definitely different this middle range than previous time-leads of interest, tho - 

 

Guess we bide time on this.. 

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