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Model Mezzanine - 3rd times a charm


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I'm interested late next week. Feels like it's not a clown threat for now.

 

Might be something around the 7th as well...the longwave trough (at least as modeled right now) is decently east, so  that one has some upside.

 

 

3/1-3/2 is kind of a clown threat for now...but I wouldn't be totally shocked if we introduced more winter into that system....gonna depend on if that spoke of the PV decides to phase with the main s/w.

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basically, the higher you lift any object the more potential energy it stores...

same thing here: the higher these runs manage to lift your hopes and spirits, the greater amount they get to claim in sadness and rage when all that good vibe gets instantly converted to kinetic madness as you fall from great great heights and expectations.

don't buy into anything 'positive' looking - how many times must we collectively be beaten over the heads with model lies before we begin to just stop listening to them.

hahaaa

As that other Randy guy from the MA forum once posted, it's like an abused wife who keeps returning back to her husband, until he or she are in jail, or one or both are dead. Ha-ha.

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Anyone ever recall any severe wx transition to snow events?

Feb 25-26 2010 I think it was we had that wind storm with a pocket of warm air and heavy rain.Was supposed to be snow the initial threat, then rain, then wind became the main event. I forget if northern and western areas got any snow with that event though. 12z GFS showing 925 winds not quite as powerful and a bit farther toward and off the coast than previous. Personally I got all my eggs in the high wind/severe wx basket. I'd settle for a few warm sector high wind gusts to a few inches of white on the flip, though. 

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Lapse rates poor for severe with latest run sadly. More QPF though. PWats over an inch in eastern MA and RI. Pretty intense for Feb to have that kind of moisture throughout the column. If only we can produce a little MUCAPE to do something with it. Sfc winds a lot weaker too. I want the 06Z back!

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Looks like mostly a whiff on the phase job for GFS next week (the 3/2 system)...so this is probably going to be a happy hour run for some. Quite flat coming out of the southern plains.

 

 

Yeah happy hour for CNE this run (and Maine)...and for SNE too eventually...flash freeze to like a 4-5 hour blizzard on that run. :lol:

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Yeah happy hour for CNE this run (and Maine)...and for SNE too eventually...flash freeze to like a 4-5 hour blizzard on that run. :lol:

I said 24 hours ago that I would take the 18Z GFS.  24 hours later still looking good.  Only a few more dozen runs to lock it in.  I'm not ready to gas up the car and run to the store yet!  It's been a few years since we have had a block buster storm up here, one of these years its going to work out.  

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I said 24 hours ago that I would take the 18Z GFS.  24 hours later still looking good.  Only a few more dozen runs to lock it in.  I'm not ready to gas up the car and run to the store yet!  It's been a few years since we have had a block buster storm up here, one of these years its going to work out.  

 

How did you do in the Mar 2014 storm? Were you slightly too far south to be considered a blockbuster and got a lot of sleet contamination?

 

I know just to your north from like a Sunday River to Killington line got a solid 16-18"

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How did you do in the Mar 2014 storm? Were you slightly too far south to be considered a blockbuster and got a lot of sleet contamination?

 

I know just to your north from like a Sunday River to Killington line got a solid 16-18"

 

That was a good QPF storm, yet a little disappointing in the total snowfall here.  The best snow growth seemed to be in that band from Killington to SR along with the QPF.  Up here in town we had 1.53" total liquid for 13.5" of snow.  It was absolutely pouring needles all afternoon and evening that day.  Like 1"/hr fog that was tipping the buckets at 0.15" QPF per hour. 

 

Later that night we did flip to better dendrites but the NNW flow was really blocked and BTV actually cleaned up with fluff.  BTV had over 18" in that one, and it was a top 10 March event.

 

QPF from that storm...

 

13MAR14B.jpg

 

 

Snowfall from that storm...BTV was one of the jackpots with 18" from the late inning fluff.

 

13MAR14C.jpg

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Tough to tell. That thing needs to be a weak POS so the other one has room to develop. I don't want to see the ukie solution or we lose.

Well we've already lost. That solution is south of 12z on the Ukie..Euro solution would offer a small chance that the 2nd storm could round the bed and with seasonal trend of coastal coming NW due to the pig out in the Atlantic we'd have a chance.

 

But I'd also argue we've already lost this winter and this would just get us out of last place.

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Well we've already lost. That solution is south of 12z on the Ukie..Euro solution would offer a small chance that the 2nd storm could round the bed and with seasonal trend of coastal coming NW due to the pig out in the Atlantic we'd have a chance.

But I'd also argue we've already lost this winter and this would just get us out of last place.

Well I'm not talking about the season.....that's another story. It would end it on a nice note though if we had a decent storm. I like the look later next week. Hopefully it holds. IMO the risk is not a cutter, it's OTS.

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