ORH_wxman Posted February 26, 2016 Share Posted February 26, 2016 I'm interested late next week. Feels like it's not a clown threat for now. Might be something around the 7th as well...the longwave trough (at least as modeled right now) is decently east, so that one has some upside. 3/1-3/2 is kind of a clown threat for now...but I wouldn't be totally shocked if we introduced more winter into that system....gonna depend on if that spoke of the PV decides to phase with the main s/w. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Randy4Confluence Posted February 26, 2016 Share Posted February 26, 2016 basically, the higher you lift any object the more potential energy it stores... same thing here: the higher these runs manage to lift your hopes and spirits, the greater amount they get to claim in sadness and rage when all that good vibe gets instantly converted to kinetic madness as you fall from great great heights and expectations. don't buy into anything 'positive' looking - how many times must we collectively be beaten over the heads with model lies before we begin to just stop listening to them. hahaaa As that other Randy guy from the MA forum once posted, it's like an abused wife who keeps returning back to her husband, until he or she are in jail, or one or both are dead. Ha-ha. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ryanjn Posted February 26, 2016 Share Posted February 26, 2016 Anyone ever recall any severe wx transition to snow events? Feb 25-26 2010 I think it was we had that wind storm with a pocket of warm air and heavy rain.Was supposed to be snow the initial threat, then rain, then wind became the main event. I forget if northern and western areas got any snow with that event though. 12z GFS showing 925 winds not quite as powerful and a bit farther toward and off the coast than previous. Personally I got all my eggs in the high wind/severe wx basket. I'd settle for a few warm sector high wind gusts to a few inches of white on the flip, though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted February 26, 2016 Share Posted February 26, 2016 Thursday or Saturday? Saturday I'm guessing Call it Friday? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ryanjn Posted February 26, 2016 Share Posted February 26, 2016 Lapse rates poor for severe with latest run sadly. More QPF though. PWats over an inch in eastern MA and RI. Pretty intense for Feb to have that kind of moisture throughout the column. If only we can produce a little MUCAPE to do something with it. Sfc winds a lot weaker too. I want the 06Z back! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted February 26, 2016 Share Posted February 26, 2016 Looks like mostly a whiff on the phase job for GFS next week (the 3/2 system)...so this is probably going to be a happy hour run for some. Quite flat coming out of the southern plains. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted February 26, 2016 Share Posted February 26, 2016 lot of moving parts tho - if that ridge in the west sharpened up and bump east a little, the n-stream might phase but in a better spot. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted February 26, 2016 Share Posted February 26, 2016 Looks like mostly a whiff on the phase job for GFS next week (the 3/2 system)...so this is probably going to be a happy hour run for some. Quite flat coming out of the southern plains. Yeah happy hour for CNE this run (and Maine)...and for SNE too eventually...flash freeze to like a 4-5 hour blizzard on that run. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rnaude241 Posted February 26, 2016 Share Posted February 26, 2016 I would take it right now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted February 26, 2016 Share Posted February 26, 2016 500 mb evolution now kind of smacks of Dec 2005 ha... what a voyage of deception - Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxeyeNH Posted February 26, 2016 Share Posted February 26, 2016 Yeah happy hour for CNE this run (and Maine)...and for SNE too eventually...flash freeze to like a 4-5 hour blizzard on that run. I said 24 hours ago that I would take the 18Z GFS. 24 hours later still looking good. Only a few more dozen runs to lock it in. I'm not ready to gas up the car and run to the store yet! It's been a few years since we have had a block buster storm up here, one of these years its going to work out. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted February 26, 2016 Share Posted February 26, 2016 I said 24 hours ago that I would take the 18Z GFS. 24 hours later still looking good. Only a few more dozen runs to lock it in. I'm not ready to gas up the car and run to the store yet! It's been a few years since we have had a block buster storm up here, one of these years its going to work out. How did you do in the Mar 2014 storm? Were you slightly too far south to be considered a blockbuster and got a lot of sleet contamination? I know just to your north from like a Sunday River to Killington line got a solid 16-18" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted February 26, 2016 Share Posted February 26, 2016 this run's looking pretty good at 192 hours ... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
powderfreak Posted February 26, 2016 Share Posted February 26, 2016 How did you do in the Mar 2014 storm? Were you slightly too far south to be considered a blockbuster and got a lot of sleet contamination? I know just to your north from like a Sunday River to Killington line got a solid 16-18" That was a good QPF storm, yet a little disappointing in the total snowfall here. The best snow growth seemed to be in that band from Killington to SR along with the QPF. Up here in town we had 1.53" total liquid for 13.5" of snow. It was absolutely pouring needles all afternoon and evening that day. Like 1"/hr fog that was tipping the buckets at 0.15" QPF per hour. Later that night we did flip to better dendrites but the NNW flow was really blocked and BTV actually cleaned up with fluff. BTV had over 18" in that one, and it was a top 10 March event. QPF from that storm... Snowfall from that storm...BTV was one of the jackpots with 18" from the late inning fluff. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JC-CT Posted February 26, 2016 Share Posted February 26, 2016 Much stronger signal for the 4th-5th on the 18z GEFS vs the possible redevelopment on the 3rd deal the 12z was clustering around. That's the first one the Euro is focusing on, GEFS mean is wide right verbatim though like the Euro was. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted February 27, 2016 Share Posted February 27, 2016 Take them down Sunday Monday Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted February 27, 2016 Share Posted February 27, 2016 Crazy Uncle shifted south from 12z for storm 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted February 27, 2016 Share Posted February 27, 2016 GGEM crushes SNE with storm 2. 12+ for many. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted February 27, 2016 Share Posted February 27, 2016 GGEM crushes SNE with storm 2. 12+ for many.18-24 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TauntonBlizzard2013 Posted February 27, 2016 Share Posted February 27, 2016 Second storm on the GGEM crushes SE NE..... 18+ Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
powderfreak Posted February 27, 2016 Share Posted February 27, 2016 Euro is a nice cut then whiff, with zero snow next ten days for many. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted February 27, 2016 Share Posted February 27, 2016 I'll take my chance with the euro ensemble where they are for now. A bit offshore. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted February 27, 2016 Share Posted February 27, 2016 Man that's a nice hit on the Ukie..wonder if we can keep that trend going for the Wednesday storm Euro's by itself now Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted February 27, 2016 Share Posted February 27, 2016 Man that's a nice hit on the Ukie..wonder if we can keep that trend going for the Wednesday storm Euro's by itself now That's rain. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
moneypitmike Posted February 27, 2016 Share Posted February 27, 2016 Euro is a nice cut then whiff, with zero snow next ten days for many. I'm ready for it......... 14.4/7 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted February 27, 2016 Share Posted February 27, 2016 That's rain. Looks like rain to flash freeze to snow Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted February 27, 2016 Share Posted February 27, 2016 Looks like rain to flash freeze to snow Tough to tell. That thing needs to be a weak POS so the other one has room to develop. I don't want to see the ukie solution or we lose. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted February 27, 2016 Share Posted February 27, 2016 Tough to tell. That thing needs to be a weak POS so the other one has room to develop. I don't want to see the ukie solution or we lose. Well we've already lost. That solution is south of 12z on the Ukie..Euro solution would offer a small chance that the 2nd storm could round the bed and with seasonal trend of coastal coming NW due to the pig out in the Atlantic we'd have a chance. But I'd also argue we've already lost this winter and this would just get us out of last place. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted February 27, 2016 Share Posted February 27, 2016 Well we've already lost. That solution is south of 12z on the Ukie..Euro solution would offer a small chance that the 2nd storm could round the bed and with seasonal trend of coastal coming NW due to the pig out in the Atlantic we'd have a chance. But I'd also argue we've already lost this winter and this would just get us out of last place. Well I'm not talking about the season.....that's another story. It would end it on a nice note though if we had a decent storm. I like the look later next week. Hopefully it holds. IMO the risk is not a cutter, it's OTS. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Lava Rock Posted February 27, 2016 Share Posted February 27, 2016 Euro is a nice cut then whiff, with zero snow next ten days for many.Lock it in. Looking forward to more rain Wednesday Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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