dendrite Posted February 26, 2016 Share Posted February 26, 2016 Another crush job for FNT. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ineedsnow Posted February 26, 2016 Share Posted February 26, 2016 They almost did last year and went below this year so it might not be a bad bet lol omg Kevin I cant believe you jumped ship bc the ukmet went east, that is like betting the farm that central park will go below zero next winter lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted February 26, 2016 Share Posted February 26, 2016 Another crush job for FNT. May have to trailer to the UP to ride this year Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted February 26, 2016 Share Posted February 26, 2016 Makes room for follow up wave. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ono Posted February 26, 2016 Share Posted February 26, 2016 Euro is flatter than 12z, but still more phased than the Ukie or GFS, so this run should still cut west of us. Just curious- the Euro's folded to the GFS a fair bit lately. It seems like whatever model outputs a undesired solution, the other folds to the bad solution. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted February 26, 2016 Share Posted February 26, 2016 Makes room for follow up wave. Yeah that's definitely an interesting period...3/4 or thereabouts. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted February 26, 2016 Share Posted February 26, 2016 12z Euro not giving in it did incrementally, tho - ...flattening a little could be the beginning of capitulating the other direction... This is still D4 prior to entering the MV longitudes, which means it still isn't 'quite' in its wheelhouse. Could still be ever so slightly too amped east of the MV... but that's all speculation of course, however well grounded. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted February 26, 2016 Share Posted February 26, 2016 3/3-3/7 period looks like it may be legit Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wx2fish Posted February 26, 2016 Share Posted February 26, 2016 Makes room for follow up wave. That one has more potential I think, much better setup with good cold around. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted February 26, 2016 Share Posted February 26, 2016 it did incrementally, tho - ...flattening a little could be the beginning of capitulating the other direction... This is still D4 prior to entering the MV longitudes, which means it still isn't 'quite' in its wheelhouse. Could still be ever so slightly too amped east of the MV... but that's all speculation of course, however well grounded. As the euro luvs to do a lot Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
codfishsnowman Posted February 26, 2016 Share Posted February 26, 2016 Makes room for follow up wave. [/quote They almost did last year and went below this year so it might not be a bad bet lol if central park goes below zero again next winter I will go to one of those gtg and buy everyone's drinks Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JC-CT Posted February 26, 2016 Share Posted February 26, 2016 Don't think the GFS even has a wheelhouse, let alone being in it now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted February 26, 2016 Share Posted February 26, 2016 Seeing as the Euro never makes massive changes in one run..my guess is this is the beginning of it's east cave to the other guidance. I just don't think we have enough cold for snow..so it's just as well if it doesn't come east so we can get another high wind and severe threat. We'll see what ENS say Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted February 26, 2016 Share Posted February 26, 2016 Don't think the GFS even has a wheelhouse, let alone being in it now. come on ...the model isn't all that bad... geez. actually tho, in all seriousness i've noticed the gfs has been performing a little better since they rolled-out the system upgrade. recall ...about a month ago (or so) they tripled the gfs' supercomputer processing power. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted February 26, 2016 Share Posted February 26, 2016 That one has more potential I think, much better setup with good cold around. Honestly Ryan ... I understand where ur coming from but that's been part of the annoyance going back two months or more ... things have ALWAYS looked better for the following setup. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JC-CT Posted February 26, 2016 Share Posted February 26, 2016 come on ...the model isn't all that bad... geez. actually tho, in all seriousness i've noticed the gfs has been performing a little better since they rolled-out the system upgrade. recall ...about a month ago (or so) they tripled the gfs' supercomputer processing power. Not it's not that bad (comparatively), nor are the Ukie and the Euro that good, at 144 hours out. I was saying that if we are suspecting the Euro will change because it's not in its wheelhouse yet, then we damn well better be prepared for the GFS/Ukie to change too. Both solutions are within the envelope of the ensemble spread. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted February 26, 2016 Share Posted February 26, 2016 Ha! GGEM certainly thinks so ... it's got a hyperbomb out of that thing... like 950mb on the outer arm of the Cape Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wx2fish Posted February 26, 2016 Share Posted February 26, 2016 Honestly Ryan ... I understand where ur coming from but that's been part of the annoyance going back two months or more ... things have ALWAYS looked better for the following setup. Definitely true this season Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
codfishsnowman Posted February 26, 2016 Share Posted February 26, 2016 Don't think the GFS even has a wheelhouse, let alone being in it now.when is the nam's wheelhouse? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JC-CT Posted February 26, 2016 Share Posted February 26, 2016 Ha! GGEM certainly thinks so ... it's got a hyperbomb out of that thing... like 950mb on the outer arm of the Cape It does? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JC-CT Posted February 26, 2016 Share Posted February 26, 2016 when is the nam's wheelhouse? summer Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted February 26, 2016 Share Posted February 26, 2016 when is the nam's wheelhouse? yesterday Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowMan Posted February 26, 2016 Share Posted February 26, 2016 Is there another day 10 blizzard on the Euro? Need to update my totals in my signature.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted February 26, 2016 Share Posted February 26, 2016 It does? well ... hyperbole aside... looks like it bombs from 1004 all the way down to 975 or so between the BM and CC. it would probably be a March 05 deal Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OceanStWx Posted February 26, 2016 Share Posted February 26, 2016 come on ...the model isn't all that bad... geez. actually tho, in all seriousness i've noticed the gfs has been performing a little better since they rolled-out the system upgrade. recall ...about a month ago (or so) they tripled the gfs' supercomputer processing power. We're actually still waiting on that upgrade (planned for May I believe). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted February 26, 2016 Share Posted February 26, 2016 We're actually still waiting on that upgrade (planned for May I believe). What?! what do you mean - i read the article that it happened back.... talk about selective interpretation .. .haha wow. i'll go try and find where/what I read. interesting Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted February 26, 2016 Share Posted February 26, 2016 ah, yeah, here it is : "...Today, NOAA announced the next phase in the agency’s efforts to increase supercomputing capacity to provide more timely, accurate, reliable, and detailed forecasts. By October 2015, the capacity of each of NOAA’s two operational supercomputers will jump to 2.5 petaflops, for a total of 5 petaflops – a nearly tenfold increase from the current capacity...." http://www.noaanews.noaa.gov/stories2015/20150105_supercomputer.html it's obviously plausible that it was delayed, but that article is on noaa's ownership/site. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OceanStWx Posted February 26, 2016 Share Posted February 26, 2016 ah, yeah, here it is : "...Today, NOAA announced the next phase in the agency’s efforts to increase supercomputing capacity to provide more timely, accurate, reliable, and detailed forecasts. By October 2015, the capacity of each of NOAA’s two operational supercomputers will jump to 2.5 petaflops, for a total of 5 petaflops – a nearly tenfold increase from the current capacity...." http://www.noaanews.noaa.gov/stories2015/20150105_supercomputer.html it's obviously plausible that it was delayed, but that article is on noaa's ownership/site. The computers were bumped up, but the actual upgrade to the GFS (including the semi 4DVAR data assimilation) is planned for this spring. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted February 26, 2016 Share Posted February 26, 2016 The computers were bumped up, but the actual upgrade to the GFS (including the semi 4DVAR data assimilation) is planned for this spring. gotcha - wonder if just the hardware alone might appease some. huh, 4D though? ... I read a long time ago that NCEP did a cross-model experiment between the GFS and Ecm; i think they took the Euro's initialization and fed it to the GFS and the GFS scored a lot better. either that or I have a remarkable talent for science fiction. be that as it may, it'll be fascinating to see what comes out of the May upgrade. wonder why they chose that month? was that deliberate - heh, i could surmise a scenario where they want put it together during the off calendar time of the year like just in case - lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dendrite Posted February 26, 2016 Share Posted February 26, 2016 gotcha - wonder if just the hardware alone might appease some. huh, 4D though? ... I read a long time ago that NCEP did a cross-model experiment between the GFS and Ecm; i think they took the Euro's initialization and fed it to the GFS and the GFS scored a lot better. either that or I have a remarkable talent for science fiction. be that as it may, it'll be fascinating to see what comes out of the May upgrade. wonder why they chose that month? was that deliberate - heh, i could surmise a scenario where they want put it together during the off calendar time of the year like just in case - lol yup...I read the same thing Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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