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Model Mezzanine - 3rd times a charm


Baroclinic Zone

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Euro is flatter than 12z, but still more phased than the Ukie or GFS, so this run should still cut west of us.

Just curious- the Euro's folded to the GFS a fair bit lately. It seems like whatever model outputs a undesired solution, the other folds to the bad solution.

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12z Euro not giving in

 

it did incrementally, tho -  ...flattening a little could be the beginning of capitulating the other direction...  This is still D4 prior to entering the MV longitudes, which means it still isn't 'quite' in its wheelhouse.  Could still be ever so slightly too amped east of the MV... 

 

but that's all speculation of course, however well grounded. 

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it did incrementally, tho -  ...flattening a little could be the beginning of capitulating the other direction...  This is still D4 prior to entering the MV longitudes, which means it still isn't 'quite' in its wheelhouse.  Could still be ever so slightly too amped east of the MV... 

 

but that's all speculation of course, however well grounded. 

 

As the euro luvs to do a lot

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Don't think the GFS even has a wheelhouse, let alone being in it now.

 

:lmao: 

 

come on ...the model isn't all that bad...  geez. 

 

actually tho, in all seriousness i've noticed the gfs has been performing a little better since they rolled-out the system upgrade.  recall ...about a month ago (or so) they tripled the gfs' supercomputer processing power.   

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That one has more potential I think, much better setup with good cold around.

 

Honestly Ryan ... I understand where ur coming from but that's been part of the annoyance going back two months or more ...  things have ALWAYS looked better for the following setup.   

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:lmao:

 

come on ...the model isn't all that bad...  geez. 

 

actually tho, in all seriousness i've noticed the gfs has been performing a little better since they rolled-out the system upgrade.  recall ...about a month ago (or so) they tripled the gfs' supercomputer processing power.   

 

Not it's not that bad (comparatively), nor are the Ukie and the Euro that good, at 144 hours out. I was saying that if we are suspecting the Euro will change because it's not in its wheelhouse yet, then we damn well better be prepared for the GFS/Ukie to change too. Both solutions are within the envelope of the ensemble spread.

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:lmao:

 

come on ...the model isn't all that bad...  geez. 

 

actually tho, in all seriousness i've noticed the gfs has been performing a little better since they rolled-out the system upgrade.  recall ...about a month ago (or so) they tripled the gfs' supercomputer processing power.   

 

We're actually still waiting on that upgrade (planned for May I believe).

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ah, yeah, here it is :

 

"...Today, NOAA announced the next phase in the agency’s efforts to increase supercomputing capacity to provide more timely, accurate, reliable, and detailed forecasts. By October 2015, the capacity of each of NOAA’s two operational supercomputers will jump to 2.5 petaflops, for a total of 5 petaflops – a nearly tenfold increase from the current capacity...."

 

http://www.noaanews.noaa.gov/stories2015/20150105_supercomputer.html

 

it's obviously plausible that it was delayed, but that article is on noaa's ownership/site.   

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ah, yeah, here it is :

 

"...Today, NOAA announced the next phase in the agency’s efforts to increase supercomputing capacity to provide more timely, accurate, reliable, and detailed forecasts. By October 2015, the capacity of each of NOAA’s two operational supercomputers will jump to 2.5 petaflops, for a total of 5 petaflops – a nearly tenfold increase from the current capacity...."

 

http://www.noaanews.noaa.gov/stories2015/20150105_supercomputer.html

 

it's obviously plausible that it was delayed, but that article is on noaa's ownership/site.   

 

The computers were bumped up, but the actual upgrade to the GFS (including the semi 4DVAR data assimilation) is planned for this spring.

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The computers were bumped up, but the actual upgrade to the GFS (including the semi 4DVAR data assimilation) is planned for this spring.

 

gotcha - wonder if just the hardware alone might appease some. 

 

huh, 4D though?   ... I read a long time ago that NCEP did a cross-model experiment between the GFS and Ecm; i think they took the Euro's initialization and fed it to the GFS and the GFS scored a lot better.  

 

either that or I have a remarkable talent for science fiction.  be that as it may, it'll be fascinating to see what comes out of the May upgrade.  

 

wonder why they chose that month?  was that deliberate - heh, i could surmise a scenario where they want put it together during the off calendar time of the year like just in case - lol

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gotcha - wonder if just the hardware alone might appease some. 

 

huh, 4D though?   ... I read a long time ago that NCEP did a cross-model experiment between the GFS and Ecm; i think they took the Euro's initialization and fed it to the GFS and the GFS scored a lot better.  

 

either that or I have a remarkable talent for science fiction.  be that as it may, it'll be fascinating to see what comes out of the May upgrade.  

 

wonder why they chose that month?  was that deliberate - heh, i could surmise a scenario where they want put it together during the off calendar time of the year like just in case - lol

yup...I read the same thing

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