CoastalWx Posted February 26, 2016 Share Posted February 26, 2016 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowMan Posted February 26, 2016 Share Posted February 26, 2016 lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted February 26, 2016 Share Posted February 26, 2016 GEFS are a big time shift east too. That is rain to snow as wave offshore forms. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowMan Posted February 26, 2016 Share Posted February 26, 2016 Stay the course. We have seen this before...models show a shift east only to end up cutting again. That's the theme this winter. Don't be lulled back into some form of false hope that we are still in winter.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted February 26, 2016 Share Posted February 26, 2016 GEFS are a big time shift east too. That is rain to snow as wave offshore forms. GGEM is interesting out at 180-192. That's been a favorable looking period as well. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dendrite Posted February 26, 2016 Share Posted February 26, 2016 Mar 05 was near blizz conditions well into interior NH. yes please Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted February 26, 2016 Share Posted February 26, 2016 LOL Eric Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted February 26, 2016 Share Posted February 26, 2016 GGEM is interesting out at 180-192. That's been a favorable looking period as well. Yeah what a nuke in the GOM. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted February 26, 2016 Share Posted February 26, 2016 GGW!!! Omg. That is the best thing we've ever seen!! Instant download to favorites Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWolf Posted February 26, 2016 Share Posted February 26, 2016 ok, so what made this all of a sudden change for the better on 3 different sets of guidance? The synoptic set up changed...in a favorable direction I take it this time, versus unfavorable most all the other times. Might be something to consider since there is suppport.?? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted February 26, 2016 Share Posted February 26, 2016 12z GGEM, Low develops late on the weds deal, More of a strung out FROPA with a low developing over the Maritimes Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted February 26, 2016 Share Posted February 26, 2016 ok, so what made this all of a sudden change for the better on 3 different sets of guidance? The synoptic set up changed...in a favorable direction I take it this time, versus unfavorable most all the other times. Might be something to consider since there is suppport.?? The models are having trouble in how the PV to the north interacts with the shortwave relay off the Pacific and coming out of the Rockies. There's a strong spoke of the PV that rotates west around the same time that the shortwave in question is ejecting through the eastern Rockies....in the cutter scenarios, this spoke phases with that energy. In the colder scenarios, the spoke whiffs on the phase and runs ahead of the shortwave...acting as a detriment in allowing the shortwave to amplify....it's essentially a confluence mechanism when it runs out ahead. There's some various shades of gray too that in between these scenarios...where it phases with just a little bit of the energy, but not all of it...so you get a strung out cutter or weaker cutter. The GFS actually still phases with a very small amount of the energy, so we get a in-between scenario...starting as warmer but flash freezing to snow along the frontal wave that starts to bomb out. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted February 26, 2016 Share Posted February 26, 2016 Ukie coming way east seals the deal in my mid. it's a legit threat Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tamarack Posted February 26, 2016 Share Posted February 26, 2016 Wow, Lol, Ice to blue bomb on the 12z GFS Better looking than the 06z. That one had RA to blizzard for MLT and points north and east, but cold arriving only after precip ends for SW half of Maine. Even 40B was only getting an inch or two, sharp west cutoff. They can usually go right into april in the NW part of the allagash, I think they will do it again this year, The cutters had little effect for those areas as they held on to the cold and frozen the longest for the most part When I lived up there and worked mainly in the Allagash-Estcourt-St.-Pamphile triangle, it was surprising how much more snow there would be at 1,000-1,500' west of Allagash, compared to 550' in the village or 500' in Ft. Kent. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWolf Posted February 26, 2016 Share Posted February 26, 2016 The models are having trouble in how the PV to the north interacts with the shortwave relay off the Pacific and coming out of the Rockies. There's a strong spoke of the PV that rotates west around the same time that the shortwave in question is ejecting through the eastern Rockies....in the cutter scenarios, this spoke phases with that energy. In the colder scenarios, the spoke whiffs on the phase and runs ahead of the shortwave...acting as a detriment in allowing the shortwave to amplify....it's essentially a confluence mechanism when it runs out ahead. There's some various shades of gray too that in between these scenarios...where it phases with just a little bit of the energy, but not all of it...so you get a strung out cutter or weaker cutter. The GFS actually still phases with a very small amount of the energy, so we get a in-between scenario...starting as warmer but flash freezing to snow along the frontal wave that starts to bomb out. Got it! Thank You for the easily understood explanation Will. What kind of peaked my interest was that the Ukie had it too, along with the Ensembles of the GFS...interesting. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CTWeatherFreak Posted February 26, 2016 Share Posted February 26, 2016 Well now. That is a game changer You back in? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowMan Posted February 26, 2016 Share Posted February 26, 2016 You back in? of course he is...he was never out Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted February 26, 2016 Share Posted February 26, 2016 You back in? Yup. I checked out..but i never left Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWolf Posted February 26, 2016 Share Posted February 26, 2016 Better looking than the 06z. That one had RA to blizzard for MLT and points north and east, but cold arriving only after precip ends for SW half of Maine. Even 40B was only getting an inch or two, sharp west cutoff. They can usually go right into april in the NW part of the allagash, I think they will do it again this year, The cutters had little effect for those areas as they held on to the cold and frozen the longest for the most part When I lived up there and worked mainly in the Allagash-Estcourt-St.-Pamphile triangle, it was surprising how much more snow there would be at 1,000-1,500' west of Allagash, compared to 550' in the village or 500' in Ft. Kent. I know that area, and have ridden to St. Pamphile and Estcourt Station several times...beautiful area, and so remote. That is some serious forest for sure in that area. And you're right, they hold the snow there big time. You can hear a pin drop literally on a calm day out there...just gorgeous country!! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted February 26, 2016 Share Posted February 26, 2016 I know that area, and have ridden to St. Pamphile and Estcourt Station several times...beautiful area, and so remote. That is some serious forest for sure in that area. And you're right, they hold the snow there big time. You can hear a pin drop literally on a calm day out there...just gorgeous country!! Gosh dang darnit! This here winter is big 'ole pile of gobbledegook!! All of these day 10 storms are nothing, but hocus pocus!! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Randy4Confluence Posted February 26, 2016 Share Posted February 26, 2016 I'll jump back in if the Euro shifts Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted February 26, 2016 Share Posted February 26, 2016 eewww - that's just wrong. i was looking for an emotocon that had vomit coming out and couldn't find any ... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted February 26, 2016 Share Posted February 26, 2016 jesus ...someone post something ...anything to get that scrolled - Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted February 26, 2016 Share Posted February 26, 2016 Better looking than the 06z. That one had RA to blizzard for MLT and points north and east, but cold arriving only after precip ends for SW half of Maine. Even 40B was only getting an inch or two, sharp west cutoff. They can usually go right into april in the NW part of the allagash, I think they will do it again this year, The cutters had little effect for those areas as they held on to the cold and frozen the longest for the most part When I lived up there and worked mainly in the Allagash-Estcourt-St.-Pamphile triangle, it was surprising how much more snow there would be at 1,000-1,500' west of Allagash, compared to 550' in the village or 500' in Ft. Kent. Those elevated areas really hang on to the pack, Other then the higher ground getting beat down due to the higher sun angle, The valleys retain right into may but access by then can no longer be had due to thaw Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted February 26, 2016 Share Posted February 26, 2016 of course he is...he was never out He's staying at the Hotel California Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
codfishsnowman Posted February 26, 2016 Share Posted February 26, 2016 omg Kevin I cant believe you jumped ship bc the ukmet went east, that is like betting the farm that central park will go below zero next winter lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
codfishsnowman Posted February 26, 2016 Share Posted February 26, 2016 we will see what dr. no and his associates have to say about this in a little bit Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted February 26, 2016 Share Posted February 26, 2016 Euro is flatter than 12z, but still more phased than the Ukie or GFS, so this run should still cut west of us. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dendrite Posted February 26, 2016 Share Posted February 26, 2016 Chicago walloped. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted February 26, 2016 Share Posted February 26, 2016 12z Euro not giving in Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Recommended Posts
Archived
This topic is now archived and is closed to further replies.