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Model Mezzanine - 3rd times a charm


Baroclinic Zone

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ok, so what made this all of a sudden change for the better on 3 different sets of guidance?  The synoptic set up changed...in a favorable direction I take it this time, versus unfavorable most all the other times.  

 

Might be something to consider since there is suppport.??

 

The models are having trouble in how the PV to the north interacts with the shortwave relay off the Pacific and coming out of the Rockies. There's a strong spoke of the PV that rotates west around the same time that the shortwave in question is ejecting through the eastern Rockies....in the cutter scenarios, this spoke phases with that energy. In the colder scenarios, the spoke whiffs on the phase and runs ahead of the shortwave...acting as a detriment in allowing the shortwave to amplify....it's essentially a confluence mechanism when it runs out ahead.

 

 

There's some various shades of gray too that in between these scenarios...where it phases with just a little bit of the energy, but not all of it...so you get a strung out cutter or weaker cutter. The GFS actually still phases with a very small amount of the energy, so we get a in-between scenario...starting as warmer but flash freezing to snow along the frontal wave that starts to bomb out.

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Wow, Lol, Ice to blue bomb on the 12z GFS

 

 

Better looking than the 06z.  That one had RA to blizzard for MLT and points north and east, but cold arriving only after precip ends for SW half of Maine.  Even 40B was only getting an inch or two, sharp west cutoff.

 

 

They can usually go right into april in the NW part of the allagash, I think they will do it again this year, The cutters had little effect for those areas as they held on to the cold and frozen the longest for the most part

 

When I lived up there and worked mainly in the Allagash-Estcourt-St.-Pamphile triangle, it was surprising how much more snow there would be at 1,000-1,500' west of Allagash, compared to 550' in the village or 500' in Ft. Kent.

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The models are having trouble in how the PV to the north interacts with the shortwave relay off the Pacific and coming out of the Rockies. There's a strong spoke of the PV that rotates west around the same time that the shortwave in question is ejecting through the eastern Rockies....in the cutter scenarios, this spoke phases with that energy. In the colder scenarios, the spoke whiffs on the phase and runs ahead of the shortwave...acting as a detriment in allowing the shortwave to amplify....it's essentially a confluence mechanism when it runs out ahead.

 

 

There's some various shades of gray too that in between these scenarios...where it phases with just a little bit of the energy, but not all of it...so you get a strung out cutter or weaker cutter. The GFS actually still phases with a very small amount of the energy, so we get a in-between scenario...starting as warmer but flash freezing to snow along the frontal wave that starts to bomb out.

Got it!  Thank You for the easily understood explanation Will.

 

What kind of peaked my interest was that the Ukie had it too, along with the Ensembles of the GFS...interesting.

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Better looking than the 06z.  That one had RA to blizzard for MLT and points north and east, but cold arriving only after precip ends for SW half of Maine.  Even 40B was only getting an inch or two, sharp west cutoff.

 

 

They can usually go right into april in the NW part of the allagash, I think they will do it again this year, The cutters had little effect for those areas as they held on to the cold and frozen the longest for the most part

 

When I lived up there and worked mainly in the Allagash-Estcourt-St.-Pamphile triangle, it was surprising how much more snow there would be at 1,000-1,500' west of Allagash, compared to 550' in the village or 500' in Ft. Kent.

I know that area, and have ridden to St. Pamphile and Estcourt Station several times...beautiful area, and so remote.  That is some serious forest for sure in that area.  And you're right, they hold the snow there big time.  You can hear a pin drop literally on a calm day out there...just gorgeous country!!

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I know that area, and have ridden to St. Pamphile and Estcourt Station several times...beautiful area, and so remote.  That is some serious forest for sure in that area.  And you're right, they hold the snow there big time.  You can hear a pin drop literally on a calm day out there...just gorgeous country!!

Gosh dang darnit!

This here winter is big 'ole pile of gobbledegook!!

All of these day 10 storms are nothing, but hocus pocus!!

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Better looking than the 06z.  That one had RA to blizzard for MLT and points north and east, but cold arriving only after precip ends for SW half of Maine.  Even 40B was only getting an inch or two, sharp west cutoff.

 

 

They can usually go right into april in the NW part of the allagash, I think they will do it again this year, The cutters had little effect for those areas as they held on to the cold and frozen the longest for the most part

 

When I lived up there and worked mainly in the Allagash-Estcourt-St.-Pamphile triangle, it was surprising how much more snow there would be at 1,000-1,500' west of Allagash, compared to 550' in the village or 500' in Ft. Kent.

 

Those elevated areas really hang on to the pack, Other then the higher ground getting beat down due to the higher sun angle, The valleys retain right into may but access by then can no longer be had due to thaw

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