Model Mezzanine - 3rd times a charm

[dryslot]

significant changes in the structure of the wave coming off the Pacific out west between GFS 00z 84 hour and this 12z 72 hour.

 

what it means downstream?   - not sure, but this run is flatter with the wave, and less initially intense out over the northern Rockies... could (death gasp... ehem) mean that the system doesn't dig as much too early, and ...that the ridge on it caboose helps nudge it more east overall, as well. 

 

Pretty strung out as moves to the east coast this run, May be a better run for more frozen this go round

[OceanStWx]

Must have been to far west for some of these or to late developing

 

I mean to us it seems like the Midwest is buried right? Everything has cut.

 

But to them in Chicago they are pulling a powderfreak and complaining that everything stays too far south and east.

 

It's the reality vs. perception of a cutter for New England. We don't care if the Euro is ALY or DTW low track, it's still a cutter. But to ORD that's a huge difference and akin to Kevin complaining the Euro went from 40/70 to Montreal on the last system after day 6. 

[Typhoon Tip]

wow, that parlays into huge differences as near as 96 to 108 hours as the trough axis nears the MV... 

[Typhoon Tip]

Yeah, well mixed even. But the GFS has a tendency to overdo that in the extended (we know it sucks with low level temps in the cool season).

 

Currently it is tickling LI with 1000 J/kg MUCAPE though. So why not waste all our thunder days in calendar winter.

 

Ah hahahahahaha - nice

[Damage In Tolland]

Isn't it funny we're talking about severe wx threats in Feb for like the 3rd time .. And not winter threats. Maybe because there are none.. But still

#ninoheater

[dryslot]

I mean to us it seems like the Midwest is buried right? Everything has cut.

 

But to them in Chicago they are pulling a powderfreak and complaining that everything stays too far south and east.

 

It's the reality vs. perception of a cutter for New England. We don't care if the Euro is ALY or DTW low track, it's still a cutter. But to ORD that's a huge difference and akin to Kevin complaining the Euro went from 40/70 to Montreal on the last system after day 6. 

 

Yeah, Not really looking at that area but making the assumption that it would have been better is correct

[dryslot]

Wow, Lol, Ice to blue bomb on the 12z GFS

 

[Typhoon Tip]

I mean to us it seems like the Midwest is buried right? Everything has cut.

 

But to them in Chicago they are pulling a powderfreak and complaining that everything stays too far south and east.

 

It's the reality vs. perception of a cutter for New England. We don't care if the Euro is ALY or DTW low track, it's still a cutter. But to ORD that's a huge difference and akin to Kevin complaining the Euro went from 40/70 to Montreal on the last system after day 6. 

 

yeah, if we're still foolishly believing this isn't all happen TOO us ...like on purpose ( ) ... the best hope is weaker -

[Typhoon Tip]

Wow, Lol, Ice to blue bomb on the 12z GFS

 

yeah, you could see this run going that way, ...as you and i were noticing the trough/relay changes coming off the Pacific.

 

question is, do we believe it? 

 

I'd say no.  trend is too difficult to over-come at this point, and there are other reasons (on top of that psychology) to thwart this run as bullcrap as well.  namely... all the dynamics in play are out over the Pacific ocean where of course there is a dearth of physical sounding information making it into the grids.  it's like, every time said dynamics passes over a measuring buoy we go back to cutter - ahahha.

 

i dunno - have to see other model's jump on board i suppose. 

[ORH_wxman]

That actually looks eerily similar to Mar 8, 2005 on the GFS

[Typhoon Tip]

some other interesting tedium (oxymoron) ... 

 

1 ...I like that the ridge in the west is doing just what we mentioned a while ago, caboose encouraging the trough to move more E than parobolically digging and going N toward the Lakes.  The ridge axis was in eastern WA/Oregon in previous runs ... this one progresses it E to eastern Idaho and is still moving it E.  

 

2 ... before much/all of this begins to unfold, heights over Florida are < than 582 over MIA.  There is a good amount of space between the geopotential isopleths, and the balanced wind velocities are < than 35 kts.  That means given impetus to do so, trough can dig SE without losing punch because they get gobbled up and absorbed in an already raging maelstrom. 

[Typhoon Tip]

That actually looks eerily similar to Mar 8, 2005 on the GFS

 

i don't remember that one -

[SouthCoastMA]

The GFS put a 1033 High in North Dakota at Day 6, while the 6z had a 1008mb low. lol

[CoastalWx]

i don't remember that one -

 

Exploded near CC and H7 low really closed off and went nuts. Banded snow with white out conditions and gusts over 60 even at ORH. I went from rain to BLSN pretty quick.

[Typhoon Tip]

actually ...spoke too soon on the western ridge ... it appears it 'wobbled' east but snapped back to OR/WA again..  flow on this run results in stretched out anomaly. 

[Damage In Tolland]

I remember that one. Had 6-8 inches around here. I think the GGEM nailed that storm

[CT Rain]

That actually looks eerily similar to Mar 8, 2005 on the GFS

 

That was the worst storm I've ever driven in. 

[CoastalWx]

I remember that one. Had 6-8 inches around here. I think the GGEM nailed that storm

 

You really recall enough to say that?  

[Typhoon Tip]

Exploded near CC and H7 low really closed off and went nuts. Banded snow with white out conditions and gusts over 60 even at ORH. I went from rain to BLSN pretty quick.

 

damn, still don't recall -

 

i'll have to look it up in the ncep library later.  must have been a quick hitting on exit deal ?

 

oh wait - i think i remember that now.  

[ORH_wxman]

Exploded near CC and H7 low really closed off and went nuts. Banded snow with white out conditions and gusts over 60 even at ORH. I went from rain to BLSN pretty quick.

 

Prob one of the worst flash freeze high impact events I've seen...went from like 45F rain to absolute mayhem in like 60 minutes. It was such a fast drop. Got about 7" of snow in that, but the way it happened it might as well have been 17". I think when the last flakes finally stopped falling, we were in the teens.

 

 

Anyways, this solution is probably wrong. I'd expect to see the other guidance still showing a regular cutter or even the pseudo clipper/FROPA that we've seen on multiple runs. That PV just keeps wanting to rotate spokes SW phase with ANYTHING that comes out of the Rockies. We can't seem to get one of those spokes to "miss" the phase and produce confluence for us to the north like we often see in overrunning or SWFE events.

[Typhoon Tip]

yeah yeah... i remember that now.  that was a fantastic bombogenesis rate of intensification.  big wind and snow squalls just exploded across eastern areas...

[CoastalWx]

Prob one of the worst flash freeze high impact events I've seen...went from like 45F rain to absolute mayhem in like 60 minutes. It was such a fast drop. Got about 7" of snow in that, but the way it happened it might as well have been 17". I think when the last flakes finally stopped falling, we were in the teens.

 

 

Anyways, this solution is probably wrong. I'd expect to see the other guidance still showing a regular cutter or even the pseudo clipper/FROPA that we've seen on multiple runs. That PV just keeps wanting to rotate spokes SW phase with ANYTHING that comes out of the Rockies. We can't seem to get one of those spokes to "miss" the phase and produce confluence for us to the north like we often see in overrunning or SWFE events.

 

And any confluence there is, lifts out rapidly. Ugh.  Your example would work on the GGEM after hr 144.

[CoastalWx]

yeah yeah... i remember that now.  that was a fantastic bombogenesis rate of intensification.  big wind and snow squalls just exploded across eastern areas...

 

It was awesome. The kind of wind you open up the window for when you hear those gusts coming....and actually hear trees snapping. Crazy.

[dryslot]

I think i was making some sales calls down in Eastern MA for that one as i remember being gridlocked in traffic for 2 hrs over towards Scituate

[HoarfrostHubb]

http://wintercenter.homestead.com/photomar2005a.html

[MJO812]

Ukie also shifted east

[ORH_wxman]

Ukie also shifted east

 

It actually looks a lot like the GFS...might even be a bit further east. Hard to tell exactly with the ugly 24 hour increments...but there is definitely accumulating snow on that run for most of New England I'd imagine.

[Damage In Tolland]

Well now. That is a game changer

[40/70 Benchmark]

Prob one of the worst flash freeze high impact events I've seen...went from like 45F rain to absolute mayhem in like 60 minutes. It was such a fast drop. Got about 7" of snow in that, but the way it happened it might as well have been 17". I think when the last flakes finally stopped falling, we were in the teens.

 

 

Anyways, this solution is probably wrong. I'd expect to see the other guidance still showing a regular cutter or even the pseudo clipper/FROPA that we've seen on multiple runs. That PV just keeps wanting to rotate spokes SW phase with ANYTHING that comes out of the Rockies. We can't seem to get one of those spokes to "miss" the phase and produce confluence for us to the north like we often see in overrunning or SWFE events.

 The irony....the season of deconstructive wave interference begins porking us on the constructive end of the spectrum toward the season's final stanza..

[MaineJayhawk]