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Model Mezzanine - 3rd times a charm

Baroclinic Zone

By Baroclinic Zone,
in New England

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JC-CT

JC-CT

Posted
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At any range the ECMWF has been beating the GFS. One thing that Kevin sort of has right, is that the UK hasn't been trash. It's been consistently second place across the NHEM. The GFS is actually lagging all major models except the Navy in the last month. 

 

The Ukie beat the Euro in January over North America from 72 through 144 hours, according to the CMC's compiled verification stats. And beat it handily at 144 hours.

 

In fact, the Ukie being #1 from 72-120 was an exception this month, usually being #2 to the Euro, but it has beaten the Euro at 144 every month since/including July.

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Typhoon Tip

Typhoon Tip

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We knew better than to the believe what the 18z operational GFS was shoveling yesterday late afternoon ... when NCEP deviantly and deliberately tweaked the grids so the run's output would add insult to injury... heh.  

 

Every run of every model type in existence had nothing of that run's appeal 6 hours later among the 00z outputs - that I have seen.  I don't typically look up the guidance types like the Macuxi model from the Raposa-Serra do Sol lands of forgotten Amazonia in NE Brazil ... so barring some esoteric desperate find being brought to the table to off-set the collective winter weather enthusiasts hideous reality and probably more apt to say ... inevitable reality, the consensus is, as they say in Ebonics:  'We be f*ed'

 

In fact, after about 7 ...9 days or so days out in time, all 12 members of the GEFs available at PSU's E-Wall url repaint the pattern in a nebular form...losing a lot of coherence of proper planetary wave numbers ... that's code for SPRINnnng. The nebular look of the geopotential canvas there is pretty typical mid April actually.  

 

I think Will or someone may have mentioned that the Euro or the ENS or whatever end of the world indicator were also flagging circa March 9 as the end of winter by characterization of the flow?  Maybe those other model types are onto something.  

 

It's all good... Maybe we can get extraordinarily lucky and cash-in from a cut-off in bowling season.  Otherwise ... this has been a tough year for teleconnectors.  We have been passing squarely through the most favorable appeal in that regard this entire season, and actually ... better than much of what I ever saw going back through 2013 for that matter.  Yet ... unlike the previous 2 winters, this one and this teleconnector lay-out has been a big pooping anus ...crapping all over doe-eyed dreamer's visions.  

 

Ha, with such perfecting ways of pooping... it almost appeared comically personal - like we've failed this by putting together 1::100 losses 10 times in a row, which should theoretically be statistically impossible.  Yet, here we are with the 10 losses.  

 

Nah I really believe fully that the idiosyncrasy of where the western ridge component of the +PNA's relay into western N/A has been a problem for EC storm tracks for all events, with the exception of the big MA snow storm - which in the week leading to, the flow did a temporary break down that allowed the gyre to trundle through that region unbothered by the hemisphere - it was a truer cut-off.   The former concept tho has demolished all possible events, every time, period.  full monty assassination of chances across the board.  

 

I don't know what force on Earth can be powerful enough to lock that ridge like that and NEVER allow it to reposition closer to 100 W where you really need it barring some equally rare anomaly (which we haven't seen, either), but having 2 or 3rd most powreful El Nino on record lurking just west of the America's ...miiiight just be a good place to start?   interesting... 

 

     

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OceanStWx

OceanStWx

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The Ukie beat the Euro in January over North America from 72 through 144 hours, according to the CMC's compiled verification stats. And beat it handily at 144 hours.

 

In fact, the Ukie being #1 from 72-120 was an exception this month, usually being #2 to the Euro, but it has beaten the Euro at 144 every month since/including July.

 

Those are two different metrics too (anomaly correlation vs. RMSE). RMSE favors smoother fields (see the CMC global beating the CMC regional). Anomaly correlation is a little more robust, as it factors in some sense of deviation from the norm which is what we're aiming at with forecasts anyway. Either way, the ECMWF and UKMET have been the two best models by that metric in recent months. 

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JC-CT

JC-CT

Posted
Posted

Those are two different metrics too (anomaly correlation vs. RMSE). RMSE favors smoother fields (see the CMC global beating the CMC regional). Anomaly correlation is a little more robust, as it factors in some sense of deviation from the norm which is what we're aiming at with forecasts anyway. Either way, the ECMWF and UKMET have been the two best models by that metric in recent months.

That actually makes sense to me, thank you.
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OceanStWx

OceanStWx

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I mean I suppose it could change....but I don't see last system repeating. Seems like one of the more classic systems that probably has a fine line if heavy rain and a few rumbles?

 

I mean maybe he's talking about NC/VA again? The GFS is spitting out marginally unstable conditions down there again.

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WinterWolf

WinterWolf

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Don't want to get to far off topic, There are guys riding if you know where to go, But its the far NW area with limited access to much of anything including fuel

 

attachicon.gifssm_depth.2016022618.1.800.450._13267.6388._12351.8017.dem.shading.ilm.m.1.0.0.0.0.0.png

Yup, in the Allegash and out that way for sure there is some decent riding but like you said, limited access to most everything.  If they cash in on Monday, and the 7-8 they got Wednesday, this should get the area into business.

 

They may have a good March up there for riding if they cash in going forward, and the cold temps cooperate for the most part, and they avoid the rain storms.  It would be nice to salvage a good March up there.

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Typhoon Tip

Typhoon Tip

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frankly?  i hope so ... the idea of a turn around into an immediate redux takes place.  

 

i love convection, equally to winter events.  and, as others have opined in recent posts, and i echo, so be it - we witnessed a rare event the other night, which was inspiring passion for the unknown of what can ever happen.

 

which (btw) should pique people's attention if they are truly "into the weather" and not just carrying around some weird neurotic co-dependence to the norman rockwell paintings of winter nostalgia in their minds ...   

 

if we got another like that?  it's like, dude!  we're going through an incredible era. 

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CT Rain

CT Rain

Posted
Posted

I mean I suppose it could change....but I don't see last system repeating. Seems like one of the more classic systems that probably has a fine line if heavy rain and a few rumbles?

 

Yet I bet everyone goes crazy with it talking about severe weather and such with this week's event in mind. 

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dryslot

dryslot

Posted
Posted

Yup, in the Allegash and out that way for sure there is some decent riding but like you said, limited access to most everything.  If they cash in on Monday, and the 7-8 they got Wednesday, this should get the area into business.

 

They may have a good March up there for riding if they cash in going forward, and the cold temps cooperate for the most part, and they avoid the rain storms.  It would be nice to salvage a good March up there.

 

They can usually go right into april in the NW part of the allagash, I think they will do it again this year, The cutters had little effect for those areas as they held on to the cold and frozen the longest for the most part

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ryanjn

ryanjn

Posted
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As of now I think the next system certainly has a chance of severe. Last system didn't have much instability either, and the next system will have about the same. LI's around 0, MUCape progged to be about the same as last system was progged a few runs before, but last system over performed. So if this system is showing instability under represented then I think we'll def see severe. Warm front a lot farther north next time around and Td about the same or slightly less than last system. Looks like better mixing near the sfc next system too which will allow llvl jet to reach surface easier. PGF winds will certainly produce gusts over 50mph in SNE if GFS verifies, but I think convective winds will be an issue as well since we'll get plenty of forcing and there could be short pockets of mid level instability throughout the column like we had last system. I'm saying at least a handful of wind reports if GFS comes to fruition. 

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Typhoon Tip

Typhoon Tip

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As of now I think the next system certainly has a chance of severe. Last system didn't have much instability either, and the next system will have about the same. LI's around 0, MUCape progged to be about the same as last system was progged a few runs before, but last system over performed. So if this system is showing instability under represented then I think we'll def see severe. Warm front a lot farther north next time around and Td about the same or slightly less than last system. Looks like better mixing near the sfc next system too which will allow llvl jet to reach surface easier. PGF winds will certainly produce gusts over 50mph in SNE if GFS verifies, but I think convective winds will be an issue as well since we'll get plenty of forcing and there could be short pockets of mid level instability throughout the column like we had last system. I'm saying at least a handful of wind reports if GFS comes to fruition. 

 

This is an excellent point.  

 

I posted about the last system ... before the last system ... about the fact that mechanical forcing can compensate for lack of CAPE. Heh, we almost have to depend on it around here - even in the summer. 

 

To a point though... I don't think the last system's total convective available potential energy was very well handled, but that's just a hunch. Haven't looked into it.  It's just that it was 63 F with a DP of 57 F around here, just before the multi-strobing window crack CG bombs starting going off and given enough height falls coming over that, I think we can assume some CAPE. 

 

The rip-and-read appeal of this next system does compare to a huge warm theta-e anomaly ripping N in the WCB so ...

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Typhoon Tip

Typhoon Tip

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Posted

significant changes in the structure of the wave coming off the Pacific out west between GFS 00z 84 hour and this 12z 72 hour.

 

what it means downstream?   - not sure, but this run is flatter with the wave, and less initially intense out over the northern Rockies... could (death gasp... ehem) mean that the system doesn't dig as much too early, and ...that the ridge on it caboose helps nudge it more east overall, as well. 

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OceanStWx

OceanStWx

Posted
Posted

What did strike me as rather eye opening, were the soundings prior to precip at 18z. GFS was mixing damaging winds down from aloft. 

 

Yeah, well mixed even. But the GFS has a tendency to overdo that in the extended (we know it sucks with low level temps in the cool season).

 

Currently it is tickling LI with 1000 J/kg MUCAPE though. So why not waste all our thunder days in calendar winter.

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