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Model Mezzanine - 3rd times a charm


Baroclinic Zone

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Yes, I understood your original post.  

 

I was just commenting on Ginxy's original post about the Para saying it crushes us day 6.  And you said it's a cutter day 6.  

 

Ok, I don't know what run Steve is looking at, I have it on SV and its cuts day 6 on the 0z Euro Para, The day 10 system looked awesome though, Nice Miller B.................... :lol:

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What shows rain? GFS lost the cutter for the day 8 storm and the Para has a miller b coastal hugger.

I'm was thinking when Ginxy said day 6 was a crush job for SNE, that's when other modeling is showing another cutter wind and rain event just like the last two we just had.  So that's why I said what I did about the rain and wind event...was thinking it was for the same system, and the para was showing snow.

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Seems like most models are progressing the pattern pretty much as Scooter said.

 

It matches the longwave trough position...where it has a colder look for our area in the 3/4-3/10 timeframe. Beyond 3/8 is murkier, but certainly that 3/3-3/7 range looks like there would be two opportunities.

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It matches the longwave trough position...where it has a colder look for our area in the 3/4-3/10 timeframe. Beyond 3/8 is murkier, but certainly that 3/3-3/7 range looks like there would be two opportunities.

 

 

Yeah I think that's our target range for now. If the weeklies are right...maybe a final hurrah for some...but lets not get ahead of ourselves. 

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It matches the longwave trough position...where it has a colder look for our area in the 3/4-3/10 timeframe. Beyond 3/8 is murkier, but certainly that 3/3-3/7 range looks like there would be two opportunities.

 

3/7 is the date the 0z Euro Para has a nice Miller B look, But i see now where there was some confusion, On SV its hr 240, 00z 3/7 for this storm but on Wxbell it shows day 6 with a date stamp of 00z 3/7 for the same storm

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If i had the time to make the trek, I would shoot up to the County in Northern Maine, They are looking at another 6-10" of snow on Monday

They need it if they are to get back up and running...last week up there(a week ago yesterday and today) got completely wiped out.  What a shame.  But they picked up 7-8 inches Wednesday and Wednesday night so that helped out.  If they pick up Monday's snow, that should put them into some good riding again.

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They need it if they are to get back up and running...last week up there(a week ago yesterday and today) got completely wiped out.  What a shame.  But they picked up 7-8 inches Wednesday and Wednesday night so that helped out.  If they pick up Monday's snow, that should put them into some good riding again.

 

Don't want to get to far off topic, There are guys riding if you know where to go, But its the far NW area with limited access to much of anything including fuel

 

post-1154-0-65327400-1456498968_thumb.pn

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I laugh at people when they say that the Euro has been better than the GFS this winter. I think the Ukie has been the best so far this winter. GFS has been imo better than the Euro . EPS also has struggled this winter.

 

post-44-0-46543800-1456498641_thumb.png

 

At any range the ECMWF has been beating the GFS. One thing that Kevin sort of has right, is that the UK hasn't been trash. It's been consistently second place across the NHEM. The GFS is actually lagging all major models except the Navy in the last month. 

 

It's nice to see the pseudo 4DVAR GFS (GFSX) coming later this year is actually a nice improvement in scoring towards the UK.

 

The stats at 12z are similar to those posted above. And the ensemble verification does not include the EPS, but I can almost guarantee you it's better than the GEFS or GEPS. But the NAEFS (US and Environment Canada combined) actually does have pretty good skill. 

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Weds, GFS showing 30kt sustained sfc winds for SE NE. Great mixed boundary and 65-70kt llvl jet again straight outa the south like last system had. Here's a shot from just south of Boston from Twisterdata. Prob will be a few degrees warmer than this last system in many spots.

GFS_3_2016022606_F132_42.0000N_71.0000W.

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