40/70 Benchmark Posted February 25, 2016 Share Posted February 25, 2016 it's the hotel weenie fornia..you can check out any time you like..but you can never leave. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted February 25, 2016 Share Posted February 25, 2016 The high on this one is in a more favorable spot to produce a longer period of icing. At least right now. But synoptics can change. I get that you and Ray are checked out...that's fine. I'm just explaining to others who might still be interested in this that it is something to watch. Absolutely nothing wrong with that. I hope I didn't make it seem otherwise. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted February 25, 2016 Share Posted February 25, 2016 Nice sprawling highs to the north for next week. This might not be done going south. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
powderfreak Posted February 25, 2016 Share Posted February 25, 2016 Connor and Brooke chucking fantasy watches right now. But at this point, all you can say is it's not an outlier against the ensemble data. Nice little 15-30" storm there. We can start there and adjust upward if needed later. Verbatim probably doubles the seasonal snowfall in upstate NY into NNE, haha. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
klw Posted February 25, 2016 Share Posted February 25, 2016 Time to shovel some fantasy snow. I'm only halfway through the storm and at 1.5" of QPF already, haha. Love me a good couple feet of GFS fantasy snow. GFS.jpg Hey I thought we were not allowed to post model pics if they were more than 3 hours out. Darn you GFS just when I was out you pull me back in. Monday not too far off from being interesting here too as it sets up a snow shield just north of the border and then pivots. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JC-CT Posted February 25, 2016 Share Posted February 25, 2016 Time to shovel some fantasy snow. I'm only halfway through the storm and at 1.5" of QPF already, haha. Love me a good couple feet of GFS fantasy snow. GFS.jpg Post the weenie map for just that storm so everyone here can understand what the "interior" means. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted February 25, 2016 Share Posted February 25, 2016 Post the weenie map for just that storm so everyone here can understand what the "interior" means. This would make 40 feet that PF has had on the GFS, reality is near the 30 inches mark, whats 3% accuracy between friends Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
powderfreak Posted February 25, 2016 Share Posted February 25, 2016 This would make 40 feet that PF has had on the GFS, reality is near the 30 inches mark, whats 3% accuracy between friends I've seen a ton of fantasy storms this season that totaled more than my entire seasonal total in the backyard . Every day there's at least one GFS run that brings a 30-40" run up here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
powderfreak Posted February 25, 2016 Share Posted February 25, 2016 Post the weenie map for just that storm so everyone here can understand what the "interior" means. Ha that axis is "interior" but to many folks the SYR-BTV-CAR corridor might as well be the Midwest. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted February 25, 2016 Share Posted February 25, 2016 Haha good point. I've seen a ton of fantasy storms this season that totaled more than my entire seasonal total in the backyard . Really though, even all winter long the EURO EPS snow maps have been very high up here, but always in the day 7-15 range, ha. Every day there's at least one GFS run that brings a 30-40" run up here. Hey at least the storm on the GFS is underway by 138-144. This is actually the storm before the one that has a very strong signal on the Euro ensembles around D8...the EC ensembles on the D6 storm were pretty spread out too...so while I like the D8-9 setup better, the D6 setup is far from written in stone. The 18z run was more like previous suites that had the high in a favorable spot to the north, rather than several 12z runs where the evolution was just completely different. The models are clearly having all sorts of issues handling the spokes rotating around the PV in E Canada. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JC-CT Posted February 25, 2016 Share Posted February 25, 2016 This would make 40 feet that PF has had on the GFS, reality is near the 30 inches mark, whats 3% accuracy between friendsWell this time it's not a 384 hour totals map with most of it falling post truncation, but I get it. Plenty of time to go wrong, or right. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JC-CT Posted February 25, 2016 Share Posted February 25, 2016 Connor and Brooke chucking fantasy watches right now. But at this point, all you can say is it's not an outlier against the ensemble data. This. I'll be honest, based on the 12z ensembles and there actually being some spread towards the BM, I was pretty curious to see what the 18z GFS would do. I had a feeling it would go the way it did, still a really long lead but this one doesn't have the same feel that the last one did at the same lead. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
powderfreak Posted February 25, 2016 Share Posted February 25, 2016 Hey at least the storm on the GFS is underway by 138-144. Talk about a really well timed high and confluence on that 18z run. That thing was winding up for the cut, but just runs into a brick wall and moves due east. That's a real thread the needle solution with regards to the timing of features. Normally a 999mb strengthening low over the southern Indiana state border doesn't end well for anywhere in the northeast but the high is timed perfectly that run. Toggling between the 12z and 18z, they are very similar except for stronger confluence that is just enough to force it under New England while 12z is allowed to cut. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted February 25, 2016 Share Posted February 25, 2016 Time to shovel some fantasy snow. I'm only halfway through the storm and at 1.5" of QPF already, haha. Love me a good couple feet of GFS fantasy snow. GFS.jpg When you get done with your BY can you come do mine? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted February 25, 2016 Share Posted February 25, 2016 Looks like gefs is similiar to op. Beautiful pna ridge . Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Randy4Confluence Posted February 25, 2016 Share Posted February 25, 2016 Wow, the 18z op run really caught my attention. that looks like snow + ice even for the coast? I'll have look at Ginxy's site to get the exact emps but like snow88 said, there's some real confluence there. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
codfishsnowman Posted February 25, 2016 Share Posted February 25, 2016 forget it - i already asked/tried that. he hasn't checked out, trust us. he's just having a temper tantrum and saying he checked out is just part of his square-mouthed rage. he is in fact more likely melting down over the fact that the dice haven't rolled in favor of what he wants. folks in general should keep a vigilant awareness of caveat emptor in mind. there are no certainties in the game. Seriously...that can't be hammered in enough; yet... people catch "wind" (pun intended..) of this that or the other global indicator for a favorable pattern and it really more than just seems they run with it so far and long that they strand them selves out in the middle of nowhere when the 'certainty' for getting result betrays them. it's all about having realistic expectations - oh, and not letting one's neurological dysfunction of being emotionally dependent upon whatever the weather is doing determine one's happiness.... but that will NEVER happen such bs he has had a half way decent winter compared to a lot of other folks around here, even I have not done all that horrible considering....so dramatic...geez Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted February 25, 2016 Share Posted February 25, 2016 The euro ensembles tracked the GFS storm at 144 almost over our heads from PA. The coastal it has with a strong signal is the storm after that. GFS wa a scraper on that one around d8-9. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted February 26, 2016 Share Posted February 26, 2016 The euro ensembles tracked the GFS storm at 144 almost over our heads from PA. The coastal it has with a strong signal is the storm after that. GFS wa a scraper on that one around d8-9. can you imagine ... three 20" over three weeks, then winter ends - all the schiteaters would have to admit it was an above normal winter? ah ahahahaaha... seriously though, Harv once told me that in 1956 there was like 60" in March after a piss poor year - stranger things have happened. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted February 26, 2016 Share Posted February 26, 2016 wow, even interior sne flips over midway on that and probably get 6 to 10 anyway - granted, the big numbers are farther west, that ain't bad. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Lava Rock Posted February 26, 2016 Share Posted February 26, 2016 can you imagine ... three 20" over three weeks, then winter ends - all the schiteaters would have to admit it was an above normal winter? ah ahahahaaha... seriously though, Harv once told me that in 1956 there was like 60" in March after a piss poor year - stranger things have happened. I really wouldn't want that much in March. I'm mostly tuning out of winter by mid March anyway. And with this winter, might as well fast forward to spring. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted February 26, 2016 Share Posted February 26, 2016 I really wouldn't want that much in March. I'm mostly tuning out of winter by mid March anyway. And with this winter, might as well fast forward to spring.I look forward to big March snows in Maine for other reasons Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted February 26, 2016 Share Posted February 26, 2016 I look forward to big March snows in Maine for other reasons Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted February 26, 2016 Share Posted February 26, 2016 Lakes cutter on the GFS. Back to hitting the midwest. These run to run changes are insane. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dendrite Posted February 26, 2016 Share Posted February 26, 2016 Lakes cutter on the GFS. Back to hitting the midwest. These run to run changes are insane.It's still d6. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted February 26, 2016 Share Posted February 26, 2016 It's still d6. I know, just posting what it shows. The other storm after this is also a lakes cutter on the gfs and ggem. Ukie is a big cutter =( http://meteocentre.com/models/explorateur.php?lang=en&map=na&run=00&mod=ukmet&stn=PNM&comp=1&run2=00&mod2=ukmet&stn2=PNM&hh2=144&fixhh=1&stn2_type=prog&mode=latest&yyyy=latest&mm=latest&dd=latest&hh=120 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
codfishsnowman Posted February 26, 2016 Share Posted February 26, 2016 i thought we were supposed to be more interested in the period starting next weekend anyways or after that Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JC-CT Posted February 26, 2016 Share Posted February 26, 2016 Damn, don't bet against uncle this year Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JC-CT Posted February 26, 2016 Share Posted February 26, 2016 i thought we were supposed to be more interested in the period starting next weekend anyways or after thatTick tock Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted February 26, 2016 Share Posted February 26, 2016 I suspect we'll see more folks jumping onto my boat today. We done Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Recommended Posts
Archived
This topic is now archived and is closed to further replies.