dendrite Posted February 20, 2016 Share Posted February 20, 2016 Can you imagine something like this ever passing UNDER our latitude ...heading off the Del Marva out over the G-string ? nice my other dastardly fantasy is to take a 100 mile X 100 mile X 1 mi deep slab of Amazonian solstice air mass, and just plop it down in the core of the SH polar vortex ... just to see what happens... You could have some fun with modeling and just alter the initial conditions. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JC-CT Posted February 20, 2016 Share Posted February 20, 2016 Next. Lipsticking a pig we might get a save but this setup sucks. ROC and SYR again? JC I couldn't read your maps. To me GGEM looked like a pig smelled like a pig. Not the best way to start 12z, save a horse ride the NAM?My handwriting or you couldn't see the images? I was just pointing out the players at various forecast times. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted February 20, 2016 Share Posted February 20, 2016 My handwriting or you couldn't see the images? I was just pointing out the players at various forecast times.I was outside on my phone, see it now on my Pad, it's an ugly setup , oh well nice day anyways Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted February 20, 2016 Share Posted February 20, 2016 Pretty big changes on the 12z Euro...more missed phase than the 00z run. Not sure it will make our sensible wx appreciably more wintry, but it's a trend that if continues would certainly make it more likely. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted February 20, 2016 Share Posted February 20, 2016 Pretty big changes on the 12z Euro...more missed phase than the 00z run. Not sure it will make our sensible wx appreciably more wintry, but it's a trend that if continues would certainly make it more likely.good to see OK getting much needed rain Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JC-CT Posted February 20, 2016 Share Posted February 20, 2016 I must be missing something in the 3 hour panels, looks like a carbon of the Ukmet to me. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JC-CT Posted February 20, 2016 Share Posted February 20, 2016 Tracks over Buffalo at 120...exactly like the ukie. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted February 20, 2016 Share Posted February 20, 2016 I must be missing something in the 3 hour panels, looks like a carbon of the Ukmet to me. It's pretty similar...my previous post stands though. That was pretty big change from 00z aloft. I know it's not exciting when it still cuts, but if that southern stream rumbles south a bit longer, then it would probably start meaning more wintry for the interior. As is, probably just some ZR to start and then rain. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JC-CT Posted February 20, 2016 Share Posted February 20, 2016 It's pretty similar...my previous post stands though. That was pretty big change from 00z aloft. I know it's not exciting when it still cuts, but if that southern stream rumbles south a bit longer, then it would probably start meaning more wintry for the interior. As is, probably just some ZR to start and then rain. It's hard for me to compare 12z vs 0z so I am not trying to say you were wrong. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted February 20, 2016 Share Posted February 20, 2016 It's hard for me to compare 12z vs 0z so I am not trying to say you were wrong. It really won't mater anyway unless the trend continues. This setup really needs two things...either a front runner wave which has all but disappeared...or a -NAO which we basically haven't had all winter save for mid January. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JC-CT Posted February 20, 2016 Share Posted February 20, 2016 The JMA is on crack this time. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JC-CT Posted February 20, 2016 Share Posted February 20, 2016 I'd be lying if I said I haven't been watching that s/w rotating around the PV around 192 (this run) for a few runs now on different model guidance. Get it beneath us and it should be snow given the n/s origin. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted February 20, 2016 Share Posted February 20, 2016 I'd be lying if I said I haven't been watching that s/w rotating around the PV around 192 (this run) for a few runs now on different model guidance. Get it beneath us and it should be snow given the n/s origin. That's been showing up off and on...definitely something to watch. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JC-CT Posted February 20, 2016 Share Posted February 20, 2016 The 0z Euro OP was on the western envelope of the EPS spread last night. I'd guess that the EPS mean makes a shift west at 12z but we'll see. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted February 20, 2016 Share Posted February 20, 2016 The 0z Euro OP was on the western envelope of the EPS spread last night. I'd guess that the EPS mean makes a shift west at 12z but we'll see.oink over BUF with 850 low mean mslp is like PITT CPA Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EastonSN+ Posted February 20, 2016 Share Posted February 20, 2016 Question, why does the EURO still look like its flooding the country with warmth on D10 when there is supposed to be a negative AO in place? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WhiteLawns Posted February 20, 2016 Share Posted February 20, 2016 The 0z Euro OP was on the western envelope of the EPS spread last night. I'd guess that the EPS mean makes a shift west at 12z but we'll see. Big shift west but not like the op Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted February 20, 2016 Share Posted February 20, 2016 Given what most guidance looks like right now, its gotta be a UKMET win. That model has been on a serious heater since February started. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JC-CT Posted February 20, 2016 Share Posted February 20, 2016 oink over BUF with 850 low mean mslp is like PITT CPACPA yes Pitt no Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted February 20, 2016 Share Posted February 20, 2016 Stop wasting any time this. Ukie FTW. Wire ti wire rains and rains to ALL of Maine. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JC-CT Posted February 20, 2016 Share Posted February 20, 2016 Stop wasting any time this. Ukie FTW. Wire ti wire rains and rains to ALL of Maine. I was curious if Steve knows where Pitt is lol.That certainly looks most likely. Ensembles say we still can't fully rule out a mixed precip scenario. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted February 20, 2016 Share Posted February 20, 2016 I was curious if Steve knows where Pitt is lol. That certainly looks most likely. Ensembles say we still can't fully rule out a mixed precip scenario. I just wasted so much time on this thinking it was going to be a fun wintry week. Colossal fail . Torch weekend.. Tomorrow nite a miss and a warm rainy week is what we end up. Kind of in spring mode now Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JC-CT Posted February 20, 2016 Share Posted February 20, 2016 I just wasted so much time on this thinking it was going to be a fun wintry week. Colossal fail . Torch weekend.. Tomorrow nite a miss and a warm rainy week is what we end up. Kind of in spring mode nowYeah I do understand the feeling. Unfortunately, as was previously mentioned (Will or Tip maybe?) this is a spring fake-out, it's February 20th not April 20th. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JC-CT Posted February 20, 2016 Share Posted February 20, 2016 I also don't think it is prudent to completely write off the threat to New England when there are like 3 or 4 shortwaves interacting in this and none of them are over land yet. The ridge is too far west and it's probably a killer but lets get within 72 hours or so to call it dead. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted February 20, 2016 Share Posted February 20, 2016 Yeah I do understand the feeling. Unfortunately, as was previously mentioned (Will or Tip maybe?) this is a spring fake-out, it's February 20th not April 20th.I posted in pattern thread.. But the long range stuff doesn't look promising IMO. All the cold stays bottled up. Not much mechanism to bring it south. And not overly stormy . Maybe a lot of 45-50 days and 20-25 nights Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JC-CT Posted February 20, 2016 Share Posted February 20, 2016 I posted in pattern thread.. But the long range stuff doesn't look promising IMO. All the cold stays bottled up. Not much mechanism to bring it south. And not overly stormy . Maybe a lot of 45-50 days and 20-25 nightsWatch the 8 day Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JC-CT Posted February 20, 2016 Share Posted February 20, 2016 Northern VT and NH get some unicorn snow on the 18z GFS. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JC-CT Posted February 20, 2016 Share Posted February 20, 2016 I said it looked like a cutter 4 days ago, mentioned four or five times that the ensembles continued to show a cutter as a distinct possibility. I've said all along that the ukmet gave me pause due to its hot streak, I said two posts before the one you quoted that I thought rain for everyone in NE was the most likely solution at this point. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted February 20, 2016 Share Posted February 20, 2016 I thought there were some interesting changes on this 18z GFS run, actually... Namely, the whole structure of ...everything is clicked east some 3 longitude on the whole. Also, there is slightly less front side DPVA on this run, and as a result, ...comparing former run-time intervals, the low in western PA is substantially weaker on this run than the prior two cycles. That's important, because there's enough cold ...albeit barely, that if weaker jet field rides in at 850 mb (because the cyclogen is weaker SW of us), that means the erosion is slow and the cold fights back (probably) with somewhat longer stayed lead-side ageostrophic drain... Also, the 500 mb has more dynamic wind energy in the southern aspect of the trough, showing marked "sharpening" structure more as it nears the Carolina coast compared to the deeper closed northern aspect of the trough on prior runs... If nothing else ...these morphologies should remind as that at D5/6 there is plenty of time for this to augment. Also, tho less dependable over all ...let us remind that there were a couple of other model types with substantially more wintry appeal over all. I know...I know. It is hard if not unwilling to keep an open mind/perspective on matters when your ass is too entirely sore by unrelenting bad luck all winter. Add in, people just straight up feel more comfortable with an actual system in the right time/place/intensity on the actual chart - understood. But objectively, I'm not ready to sign off on this as an 86er just yet. The stuff we talked about early, re the follow-up wave perhaps pushing/correcting the lead more E is still not resolved in my mind; additionally and related to ... all the governing mechanics to all this cluster f is out over the Pac - lots could morph around when this stuff starts coming over land in 24 to 36 hours. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
eduggs Posted February 20, 2016 Share Posted February 20, 2016 I just wasted so much time on this thinking it was going to be a fun wintry week. Colossal fail . Torch weekend.. Tomorrow nite a miss and a warm rainy week is what we end up. Kind of in spring mode now Full on spring mode. Was 60 degrees up to GFL today. Spring rains all the way to Lake Placid. Bare ground in lots of places that should be 4 feet deep right now. ALB, GFL, POU, PSF and many other places are going to break snowfall records this year. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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