Typhoon Tip Posted February 25, 2016 Share Posted February 25, 2016 For somebody who's checked out, your in here quite a bit today commenting away. If you're checked out, then why are you looking and commenting? forget it - i already asked/tried that. he hasn't checked out, trust us. he's just having a temper tantrum and saying he checked out is just part of his square-mouthed rage. he is in fact more likely melting down over the fact that the dice haven't rolled in favor of what he wants. folks in general should keep a vigilant awareness of caveat emptor in mind. there are no certainties in the game. Seriously...that can't be hammered in enough; yet... people catch "wind" (pun intended..) of this that or the other global indicator for a favorable pattern and it really more than just seems they run with it so far and long that they strand them selves out in the middle of nowhere when the 'certainty' for getting result betrays them. it's all about having realistic expectations - oh, and not letting one's neurological dysfunction of being emotionally dependent upon whatever the weather is doing determine one's happiness.... but that will NEVER happen Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWolf Posted February 25, 2016 Share Posted February 25, 2016 I'm sociable..I like to interact and post. I'm not a hermit or socially inept. I have called off winter..it doesn't mean I can't partake in discussions should a wintry threat actually show up. Nobody said you were socially inept at all. You said you checked out! If you checked out, then you shouldn't be talking about winter or the lack there of in a model thread...if indeed you checked out-like you said earlier today. Which by the way, I never believed for a second anyway. You're looking for a winter threat just like the rest here, and it's obvious as can be. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted February 25, 2016 Share Posted February 25, 2016 did Kev seriously say it was going to be 70? Monday Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWolf Posted February 25, 2016 Share Posted February 25, 2016 did Kev seriously say it was going to be 70? Monday Yup. He's losing it today. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted February 25, 2016 Share Posted February 25, 2016 it's all about having realistic expectations - oh, and not letting one's neurological dysfunction of being emotionally dependent upon whatever the weather is doing determine one's happiness.... but that will NEVER happen Kettle meet pot? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted February 25, 2016 Share Posted February 25, 2016 did Kev seriously say it was going to be 70? Monday You tell me..with these thicknesses..west winds..downsloping, strong sun, no foliage 65 is easily in reach. As a matter of fact believe yesterday you posted 60's Monday and tan the napes. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted February 25, 2016 Share Posted February 25, 2016 You tell me..with these thicknesses..west winds..downsloping, strong sun, no foliage 65 is easily in reach. As a matter of fact believe yesterday you posted 60's Monday and tan the napes. 60 yes 70 lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted February 25, 2016 Share Posted February 25, 2016 Nobody said you were socially inept at all. You said you checked out! If you checked out, then you shouldn't be talking about winter or the lack there of in a model thread...if indeed you checked out-like you said earlier today. Which by the way, I never believed for a second anyway. You're looking for a winter threat just like the rest here, and it's obvious as can be. it's the hotel weenie fornia..you can check out any time you like..but you can never leave. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted February 25, 2016 Share Posted February 25, 2016 I can look at a modeled pattern and see there's nothing wintry at all until possibly past day 10.. Pretty easy call actually. I'll stick to what I've done well with..and that was forecast a warm, ratter winter Yeah your forecast a couple weeks ago of how that storm was going over Cape Cod and there was NO way it was cutting through NY State exemplified rational and skillful medium range forecasting. If your self-proclaimed skill is long range, then maybe check out of here and go boast in the winter 2015-2016 thread. This is the model thread, and the current guidance shows some favorable setups...we have mentioned caveats in the past. A shift east in the ridge placement is beneficial and fundamentally different than the past 10 days (and upcoming 6)...especially in the regime of no downstream blocking in the Atlantic which looks to continue. So we rely on the ridge placement out west more. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
West Point, NY Posted February 25, 2016 Share Posted February 25, 2016 I can look at a modeled pattern and see there's nothing wintry at all until possibly past day 10.. Pretty easy call actually. I'll stick to what I've done well with..and that was forecast a warm, ratter winter Then you might as well change your avitar to Hot and Humid. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted February 25, 2016 Share Posted February 25, 2016 Yeah your forecast a couple weeks ago of how that storm was going over Cape Cod and there was NO way it was cutting through NY State exemplified rational and skillful medium range forecasting. If your self-proclaimed skill is long range, then maybe check out of here and go boast in the winter 2015-2016 thread. This is the model thread, and the current guidance shows some favorable setups...we have mentioned caveats in the past. A shift east in the ridge placement is beneficial and fundamentally different than the past 10 days (and upcoming 6)...especially in the regime of no downstream blocking in the Atlantic which looks to continue. So we rely on the ridge placement out west more. Ok man..have it your way Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWolf Posted February 25, 2016 Share Posted February 25, 2016 it's the hotel weenie fornia..you can check out any time you like..but you can never leave. Well that makes more sense lol. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted February 25, 2016 Share Posted February 25, 2016 Oooh, so now it's 65 on Monday... I'm sure the next defensive posturing will be 60, then, 55-60 look, it should be a mild day. Yes. a breezy deep layer wsw flow should impart chances to bust MOS a little however **caveat ** should the wind be more SW then from about middle CT to eastern MA will get poisoned by the cold bite-waters to the S of LI. i don't think 70 is in the cards for now. you'd need a minimum of 12 C at 900 mb ( it's tough to get a boundary layer to 850 sigma at this time of year). we'll see but that looks like a long shot - Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dendrite Posted February 25, 2016 Share Posted February 25, 2016 Yeah...H85 is tough, but if most of the land is snow and mud free by Monday then you really enable the sfc to heat much more than MOS climo allows. Mar 2010 is a good example of an early warm pattern with mud season having already ended and actual highs trounced MOS values. With that said, I'm not forecasting 70F. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted February 25, 2016 Share Posted February 25, 2016 That's a strong signal at D8 on the Euro ensembles for a storm on the coast. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JC-CT Posted February 25, 2016 Share Posted February 25, 2016 That's a strong signal at D8 on the Euro ensembles for a storm on the coast. Yes it is. Equally strong on GEPS, GEFS was weaker and more progessive but had it. Kevin must be looking at some other models for his 10 day pattern progs. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted February 25, 2016 Share Posted February 25, 2016 Yes it is. Equally strong on GEPS, GEFS was weaker and more progessive but had it. Kevin must be looking at some other models for his 10 day pattern progs. Wasn't there a strong signal for a storm on the coast for yesterday's storm on the EPS last week? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JC-CT Posted February 25, 2016 Share Posted February 25, 2016 Wasn't there a strong signal for a storm on the coast for yesterday's storm on the EPS last week? Yes. So based on the past couple weeks, you are now bias-correcting all modeling by 1,000 miles to the west? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JC-CT Posted February 25, 2016 Share Posted February 25, 2016 The spread includes cutters, too, ya know. That's how it works at days 6-10... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted February 25, 2016 Share Posted February 25, 2016 Yes. So based on the past couple weeks, you are now bias-correcting all modeling by 1,000 miles to the west? Just asking Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted February 25, 2016 Share Posted February 25, 2016 Euro also ends winter around 3/8-9 (at least temporarily)...it looks like it might be reloading at the end of the run. D12-15 are pretty mild. Though it's certainly different than other ensembles guidance. It also has a signal for a storm around 3/7 or so. It's offshore verbatim, but if you use Kevin's method, then it would be a hit. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JC-CT Posted February 25, 2016 Share Posted February 25, 2016 Just asking No, you're really not though. I can look at a modeled pattern and see there's nothing wintry at all until possibly past day 10.. Pretty easy call actually. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OceanStWx Posted February 25, 2016 Share Posted February 25, 2016 That's a strong signal at D8 on the Euro ensembles for a storm on the coast. Definitely got better than the past few runs. It was a bit scattershot even at 00z, but the 12z EPS consolidated more lows to our SE. Even still, there are member from Montreal to Bermuda, and Halifax to Hatteras around day 8. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted February 25, 2016 Share Posted February 25, 2016 Tasty ensemble look there. Hopefully we can hold it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted February 25, 2016 Share Posted February 25, 2016 Geps also has a coastal signal Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HoarfrostHubb Posted February 25, 2016 Share Posted February 25, 2016 I'm not checking out. Hope we can get something wintery in the next 10 days. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JC-CT Posted February 25, 2016 Share Posted February 25, 2016 18z GFS should be improved over 12z for mid week. Of course there was a lot of room for improvement. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
powderfreak Posted February 25, 2016 Share Posted February 25, 2016 18z GFS should be improved over 12z for mid week. Of course there was a lot of room for improvement. Time to shovel some fantasy snow. I'm only halfway through the storm and at 1.5" of QPF already, haha. Love me a good couple feet of GFS fantasy snow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OceanStWx Posted February 25, 2016 Share Posted February 25, 2016 Time to shovel some fantasy snow. I'm only halfway through the storm and at 1.5" of QPF already, haha. Love me a good couple feet of GFS fantasy snow. GFS.jpg Connor and Brooke chucking fantasy watches right now. But at this point, all you can say is it's not an outlier against the ensemble data. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ineedsnow Posted February 25, 2016 Share Posted February 25, 2016 Alot of nys gets 3 to 4 feet by hr180 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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