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Model Mezzanine - 3rd times a charm


Baroclinic Zone

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For somebody who's checked out, your in here quite a bit today commenting away.  If you're checked out, then why are you looking and commenting?

 

forget it - i already asked/tried that. 

 

he hasn't checked out, trust us.  he's just having a temper tantrum and saying he checked out is just part of his square-mouthed rage.  he is in fact more likely melting down over the fact that the dice haven't rolled in favor of what he wants. 

 

folks in general should keep a vigilant awareness of caveat emptor in mind. there are no certainties in the game.  Seriously...that can't be hammered in enough; yet... people catch "wind" (pun intended..) of this that or the other global indicator for a favorable pattern and it really more than just seems they run with it so far and long that they strand them selves out in the middle of nowhere when the 'certainty' for getting result betrays them. 

 

it's all about having realistic expectations - oh, and not letting one's neurological dysfunction of being emotionally dependent upon whatever the weather is doing determine one's happiness.... but that will NEVER happen :)

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I'm sociable..I like to interact and post. I'm not a hermit or socially inept.

 

I have called off winter..it doesn't mean I can't partake in discussions should a wintry threat actually show up.

Nobody said you were socially inept at all. 

 

You said you checked out!  If you checked out, then you shouldn't be talking about winter or the lack there of in a model thread...if indeed you checked out-like you said earlier today.   Which by the way, I never believed for a second anyway.  You're looking for a winter threat just like the rest here, and it's obvious as can be.

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Nobody said you were socially inept at all. 

 

You said you checked out!  If you checked out, then you shouldn't be talking about winter or the lack there of in a model thread...if indeed you checked out-like you said earlier today.   Which by the way, I never believed for a second anyway.  You're looking for a winter threat just like the rest here, and it's obvious as can be.

it's the hotel weenie fornia..you can check out any time you like..but you can never leave.

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I can look at a modeled pattern and see there's nothing wintry at all until possibly past day 10.. Pretty easy call actually.

 

I'll stick to what I've done well with..and that was forecast a warm, ratter winter 

 

 

Yeah your forecast a couple weeks ago of how that storm was going over Cape Cod and there was NO way it was cutting through NY State exemplified rational and skillful medium range forecasting.

 

 

If your self-proclaimed skill is long range, then maybe check out of here and go boast in the winter 2015-2016 thread.

 

 

 

 

This is the model thread, and the current guidance shows some favorable setups...we have mentioned caveats in the past. A shift east in the ridge placement is beneficial and fundamentally different than the past 10 days (and upcoming 6)...especially in the regime of no downstream blocking in the Atlantic which looks to continue. So we rely on the ridge placement out west more.

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Yeah your forecast a couple weeks ago of how that storm was going over Cape Cod and there was NO way it was cutting through NY State exemplified rational and skillful medium range forecasting.

 

 

If your self-proclaimed skill is long range, then maybe check out of here and go boast in the winter 2015-2016 thread.

 

 

 

 

This is the model thread, and the current guidance shows some favorable setups...we have mentioned caveats in the past. A shift east in the ridge placement is beneficial and fundamentally different than the past 10 days (and upcoming 6)...especially in the regime of no downstream blocking in the Atlantic which looks to continue. So we rely on the ridge placement out west more.

Ok man..have it your way

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Oooh, so now it's 65 on Monday...  I'm sure the next defensive posturing will be 60, then, 55-60     :lol:

 

look, it should be a mild day.   Yes.  a breezy deep layer wsw flow should impart chances to bust MOS a little

 

however **caveat ** should the wind be more SW then from about middle CT to eastern MA will get poisoned by the cold bite-waters to the S of LI.  

 

i don't think 70 is in the cards for now.   you'd need a minimum of 12 C at 900 mb ( it's tough to get a boundary layer to 850 sigma at this time of year).  we'll see but that looks like a long shot -

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Yeah...H85 is tough, but if most of the land is snow and mud free by Monday then you really enable the sfc to heat much more than MOS climo allows. Mar 2010 is a good example of an early warm pattern with mud season having already ended and actual highs trounced MOS values.

With that said, I'm not forecasting 70F. ;)

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Euro also ends winter around 3/8-9 (at least temporarily)...it looks like it might be reloading at the end of the run.

 

D12-15 are pretty mild. Though it's certainly different than other ensembles guidance.

 

It also has a signal for a storm around 3/7 or so. It's offshore verbatim, but if you use Kevin's method, then it would be a hit.

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That's a strong signal at D8 on the Euro ensembles for a storm on the coast.

 

Definitely got better than the past few runs. It was a bit scattershot even at 00z, but the 12z EPS consolidated more lows to our SE.

 

Even still, there are member from Montreal to Bermuda, and Halifax to Hatteras around day 8.

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