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Model Mezzanine - 3rd times a charm


Baroclinic Zone

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Synoptic setup changed completely in one run on that threat mid-next week...GFS is basically a FROPA and the GGEM is now developing a system along a frontal boundary to our south and riding it up the coast...prob a good hit for interior.

 

But hard to trust any of those solutions when they literally have totally different shortwaves responsible for that system.

 

we're definitely locked in what has proven so far to be a very unsavory pattern for winter enthusiasm. 

 

it's clearly evidenced by these apparent carbon copy cutters ...or as you say, straight up west fropas....  it's all just code for: storm track sucks and is too far west; however we want to cook up x,y,z causation aside, that's basically it. 

 

the thing on the ggem you're noticing is also a carbon copy of that ana event that came back to become an actual cyclogenesis that substantially clipped the area.  heh, makes one wonder if this one will completely disappear and squash out to nothingness, only to come back with 18 hours worth of model awareness too -

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Correct. There are no wintry looking models

 

Yeah, this looks nothing like a wintry appeal ... dude, please stick to sales

 

f240.gif

 

J/k...

 

but seriously, notice how the ridge has finally reposition closer to 100 W ?

 

this is a much more agreeable wave length for systems to reach max amplitude on the EC rather than 80 W.

 

now, we just have to get it to a D4 out look and we're golden... or whiten.... heh

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Yeah, this looks nothing like a wintry appeal ... dude, please stick to sales

 

 

 

J/k...

 

but seriously, notice how the ridge has finally reposition closer to 100 W ?

 

this is a much more agreeable wave length for systems to reach max amplitude on the EC rather than 80 W.

 

now, we just have to get it to a D4 out look and we're golden... or whiten.... heh

 

 

I had posted in the pattern thread that the mean trough looked pretty favorable in the Mar 4-10 time period. Definitely a good spot for the ridge...right over the Eastern Rockies.

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No offense, but all the calls for a wintry month of Feb and first half of March did not work out.

 

 

And there's no cutters thru day 10

 

 

How do you know what happened in the first half of March already?

 

 

Like Tip said....stick to sales.

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How do you know what happened in the first half of March already?

 

 

Like Tip said....stick to sales.

I can look at a modeled pattern and see there's nothing wintry at all until possibly past day 10.. Pretty easy call actually.

 

I'll stick to what I've done well with..and that was forecast a warm, ratter winter 

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For somebody who's checked out, your in here quite a bit today commenting away.  If you're checked out, then why are you looking and commenting?

I'm sociable..I like to interact and post. I'm not a hermit or socially inept.

 

I have called off winter..it doesn't mean I can't partake in discussions should a wintry threat actually show up.

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