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Model Mezzanine - 3rd times a charm


Baroclinic Zone

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Just one more month of pain and suffering, and gnashing of teeth, then we mercifully close the books on this dreadful winter.

Its your own fault.

Get out of there....check the hell out.

 

I feel great....its liberating not having to contend with frustration on a daily basis.

I'm looking forward to baseball, my verification scrip, and  next year's outlook.

Perhaps not ostensibly so at H5 where no one lives, but this winter is over, and has been for awhile.

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Eps with string support for another warm cutter. We'll watch everything continue that way the next few days . Little support for cold/ snow

TBH, I'd rather this, than a 1-3" $hit$how that transitions to a 32.00000000000000000001* rainer.

I'm well beyond the "every inch counts" frame of mind.....who cares.

Give me 50* and rain...its comfortable, and I don't have to wake up 30 minutes early to scrape the last vestiges of the impotent season gone by off of my windshield.

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Well WPC maps seemed to show a Miller B of sorts next Wed/Thurs...a low in the Lakes with redevelopment in the Tennessee Valley and a high just nw of Maine. I couldn't see how strong that high was.

I'd def watch it. Could be an icy setup over interior even if it tried to cut. But we will see. A long ways out still. Synoptic setup could look different in a couple days.

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Its your own fault.

Get out of there....check the hell out.

 

I feel great....its liberating not having to contend with frustration on a daily basis.

I'm looking forward to baseball, my verification scrip, and  next year's outlook.

Perhaps not ostensibly so at H5 where no one lives, but this winter is over, and has been for awhile.

I know, I was having fun throwing in some sentimental pros there. :). In reality, I can handle it. It was nice to stand on the platform this morning with those Bahama breezes.

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I know, I was having fun throwing in some sentimental pros there. :). In reality, I can handle it. It was nice to stand on the platform this morning with those Bahama breezes.

I love it....if it isn't going to snow, rip the band aid off......this winter may actually win some points with me relative to other ratters if this keeps up.

The worst are the ones that keep trying an failing, so that the sensible weather blows, too.

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Looks exactly like just happened last 2 days

 

The high on this one is in a more favorable spot to produce a longer period of icing. At least right now. But synoptics can change.

 

I get that you and Ray are checked out...that's fine. I'm just explaining to others who might still be interested in this that it is something to watch.

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The high on this one is in a more favorable spot to produce a longer period of icing. At least right now. But synoptics can change.

 

I get that you and Ray are checked out...that's fine. I'm just explaining to others who might still be interested in this that it is something to watch.

As Tip has pointed out, recently the well-positioned highs at 7-10 days slowly but surely shift east into an unfavorable position.  Hopefully something happens to allow this one to stay put.

 

I'm not checked out.  I've been in Savannah for 3 weeks, so a bit disconnected from all of the frustration as my nape is tickled by southerly breezes and warm sunshine.   I think a best case scenario would be a nice 2-3 week period of winter for at least CNE and NNE commencing next week...followed of course by a quick turn to spring and a short mud season. 

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I love it....if it isn't going to snow, rip the band aid off......this winter may actually win some points with me relative to other ratters if this keeps up.

The worst are the ones that keep trying an failing, so that the sensible weather blows, too.

Yeah, a couple of weeks ago, I didn't look at one model run for like 7 days. It was awesome!

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As Tip has pointed out, recently the well-positioned highs at 7-10 days slowly but surely shift east into an unfavorable position.  Hopefully something happens to allow this one to stay put.

 

I'm not checked out.  I've been in Savannah for 3 weeks, so a bit disconnected from all of the frustration as my nape is tickled by southerly breezes and warm sunshine.   I think a best case scenario would be a nice 2-3 week period of winter for at least CNE and NNE commencing next week...followed of course by a quick turn to spring and a short mud season. 

Have you thrown in the towel on your previous thoughts on a Neg. NAO ?

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Synoptic setup changed completely in one run on that threat mid-next week...GFS is basically a FROPA and the GGEM is now developing a system along a frontal boundary to our south and riding it up the coast...prob a good hit for interior.

 

But hard to trust any of those solutions when they literally have totally different shortwaves responsible for that system.

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