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Model Mezzanine - 3rd times a charm


Baroclinic Zone

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Gives a 6-10" snowstorm for SNE while powderfreak looks at a cloud deck to his south

Haha here to Dryslot have virga from the cirrus as you have snow up to thy knickers.

At least all of us in NNE could sing kumbya to comfort each other.

I think Tamarack is right, would add variety to this current pattern.

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Would add variety.  This month has been mainly cutters; need some whiffs to balance that out.

 

 

Well we did whiff on Monday's system (it had a couple days where it looked like it could be a nice advisory redeveloper S of LI....but then trended into a flat whiff)

 

 

But yeah, we're kind of due for another whiff SE on a bigger storm. Haven't had a big one miss SE since Feb 8 (we did get snow from that, but the storm was about 400-500 miles offshore)

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Is thus the same storm that the gfs keeps showing as a cutter?

Well we did whiff on Monday's system (it had a couple days where it looked like it could be a nice advisory redeveloper S of LI....but then trended into a flat whiff)

But yeah, we're kind of due for another whiff SE on a bigger storm. Haven't had a big one miss SE since Feb 8 (we did get snow from that, but the storm was about 400-500 miles offshore)

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What mechanism shunts this to our south and forces redevelopment? Stout HP, a sneaky Scooter streak? Otherwise, this will cut to DET again.

 

The PV lobe conveniently is north of us. Basically, it would be a well timed s/w that had confluence to our north. To say this is low confidence is an understatement. However, these aren't uncommon.

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The PV lobe conveniently is north of us. Basically, it would be a well timed s/w that had confluence to our north. To say this is low confidence is an understatement. However, these aren't uncommon.

 

 

Yeah these happen all the time in our low-blocking Nina patterns (many of those Dec '07 and '08 systems did that)...hopefully this one works out

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 ECMWF caves to the GFS again, only this winter. GFS is not a snowy scenario either, not sure where you are getting that in your prior post.

I just changed it. Only Maine gets it good then they even switches to rain. GGEM,GFS and now Euro show another lakes cutter. GEFS and GGEM ensembles are a lot further south with the low than the op runs. Lets hope it trends further south and colder but as of right now, it looks like todays storm.

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