40/70 Benchmark Posted February 24, 2016 Share Posted February 24, 2016 Have you guys missed the developing blocking up north? You gotta get the IMBY syndrome out of your head if you want to analyze the pattern. That system on 2/29-3/1 ends up too far NW. That's the way it goes with a +NAO. That was said only like 1452 times hen talking about the pattern. You cannot predict the nuances in the shortwaves at lead times of 10 days. If the shortwave for 2/29 was weaker or the PV lobe up north didn't rotate west and phase with it, then you'd be looking at a snow event. If you take "chances for snow events" as equivalent for "guaranteed snow events", then that is on you. We had a chance this week and missed and next Tuesday is probably also a miss. The blocking increases even more beyond that so we'll keep taking our hacks. I'm sure this season will feature "chances" right into latter April. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted February 24, 2016 Share Posted February 24, 2016 Lol of course it is...its 10 days out!! We've seen that look many times all winter, it just never gets much closer-let alone ever verifys. I'd stop holding your breath and just check in every few days, but I'm betting this season disappoints until the end. I know Will is going to throttle me, but I'm not talking synoptically when I say this absolutely wreaks of 2010. Pattern is serviceable, yet DONE. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
forkyfork Posted February 24, 2016 Share Posted February 24, 2016 the gfs might win in chicago. the nam came west Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HoarfrostHubb Posted February 24, 2016 Share Posted February 24, 2016 I'd stop holding your breath and just check in every few days, but I'm betting this season disappoints until the end. I know Will is going to throttle me, but I'm not talking synoptically when I say this absolutely wreaks of 2010. Pattern is serviceable, yet DONE. Give me Feb of 2010 please Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted February 24, 2016 Share Posted February 24, 2016 Give me Feb of 2010 please You will suffer like the rest of us this go around. Worst, most frustrating winter of my life....hands down, period. Move over 2010, step aside 2012. There is a new shed in town. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWolf Posted February 24, 2016 Share Posted February 24, 2016 I'd stop holding your breath and just check in every few days, but I'm betting this season disappoints until the end. I know Will is going to throttle me, but I'm not talking synoptically when I say this absolutely wreaks of 2010. Pattern is serviceable, yet DONE. Oh for sure. I let the breath out over the weekend, and I've been just popping in sporadically to see if there is anything of interest popping up. Yes the theme for the season seems to be disappointment. I've accepted it...and it's all good now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted February 24, 2016 Share Posted February 24, 2016 Oh for sure. I let the breath out over the weekend, and I've been just popping in sporadically to see if there is anything of interest popping up. Yes the theme for the season seems to be disappointment. I've accepted it...and it's all good now. I never mentioned this current garbage on the blog and now you see why. More fraud, voo doo threats. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CNY-LES FREAK Posted February 24, 2016 Share Posted February 24, 2016 Some horrible analysis going on Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
powderfreak Posted February 24, 2016 Share Posted February 24, 2016 You will suffer like the rest of us this go around. Worst, most frustrating winter of my life....hands down, period. Move over 2010, step aside 2012. There is a new shed in town. More good news after this system: "Active weather continues as we end the weekend and move into the start of next week as low pressure developing over the northern plains Sunday tracks through the Great Lakes Sunday night and through the north country Monday. Current forecast low track which I took as a blend of the European model (ecmwf) and GFS supports a possible brief wintry mix Sunday night, followed by mainly rain/snow for Monday and ending as snow again Monday night. Feel there is a lot of uncertainty though with the track at this time which will largely hinge on the upper level energy which doesn't come onto the Pacific coast until Saturday morning, and also a large high pressure area anchored over the southeast Continental U.S.. if we take the general pattern over the past 2 months and apply it forward, it is well within reason to believe the upper trough will be deeper and the southeast high will be stronger and displaced a little northward which would send the low track west of the btv cwa, and support more mix and then more rain and warmer temperatures. Jury is still out at this time so stay tuned." Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted February 24, 2016 Share Posted February 24, 2016 LOL at the Euro..massive changes from 12z Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Randy4Confluence Posted February 24, 2016 Share Posted February 24, 2016 LOL at the Euro..massive changes from 12z Details? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baroclinic Zone Posted February 24, 2016 Author Share Posted February 24, 2016 LOL at the Euro..massive changes from 12z Looks like Spring cutoff w/ low off the GA/SC at day 10. EPS looks nothing like that though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dendrite Posted February 24, 2016 Share Posted February 24, 2016 Looks like Spring cutoff w/ low off the GA/SC at day 10. EPS looks nothing like that though. The wave overrunning that 1040mb high was pretty interesting. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baroclinic Zone Posted February 24, 2016 Author Share Posted February 24, 2016 The wave overrunning that 1040mb high was pretty interesting. Yeah that would be an interesting setup. As far as my location goes this season has taken the turn towards spring. Unless the pattern drastically improves with some real blocking my chances are waning. I do feel that C/NNE will have plenty more chances to come as we move into March. Won't save what's been a horrendous season for winter enthusiasts and businesses but will hopefully brighten those downtrodden spirits. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted February 24, 2016 Share Posted February 24, 2016 The wave overrunning that 1040mb high was pretty interesting. Para is quite similiar Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWolf Posted February 24, 2016 Share Posted February 24, 2016 When was that wave progged for approximately? Just curious...10 days out?? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted February 24, 2016 Share Posted February 24, 2016 When was that wave progged for approximately? Just curious...10 days out?? Day 8 and after. Some agreement with ensembles too. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted February 24, 2016 Share Posted February 24, 2016 love that 108 hour GFS with mid 40s temps amid gusty WSW winds... just the exciting, ..riveting type of weather the dr would order for the beleaguered deprived. perfectly well done! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BRSno Posted February 24, 2016 Share Posted February 24, 2016 Cutter after cutter after cutter Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted February 24, 2016 Share Posted February 24, 2016 Euro was nice next week. Good WSW event. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted February 24, 2016 Share Posted February 24, 2016 Euro was nice next week. Good WSW event. Yep just about to post it. Low goes off nj coast. Need it a little colder down here:) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted February 24, 2016 Share Posted February 24, 2016 Euro looks nice at D7. 6-10" for SNE on that one. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted February 24, 2016 Share Posted February 24, 2016 GEFS sort of show this, but they are a bit warmer. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted February 24, 2016 Share Posted February 24, 2016 Get us to day 3 and I'll buy it. Maybe Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted February 24, 2016 Share Posted February 24, 2016 That's a classic fronto band look too. Slight fetish for those. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tamarack Posted February 24, 2016 Share Posted February 24, 2016 More good news after this system: It was astonishing to, within a couple days, see a change from talk of polar vortex and arctic blast early next week, to modeled temps 50+ for that same timeframe. From 20F BN to 20F AN in the course of a handful of runs. The winter that keeps on giving. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted February 24, 2016 Share Posted February 24, 2016 Sunday Monday Tan the napes 60s Monday sweet Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brian5671 Posted February 24, 2016 Share Posted February 24, 2016 It was astonishing to, within a couple days, see a change from talk of polar vortex and arctic blast early next week, to modeled temps 50+ for that same timeframe. From 20F BN to 20F AN in the course of a handful of runs. The winter that keeps on giving. well if it's not going to snow, I'll take 50-60 degrees...there's not even parking lot piles left here anymore-nothing to save so let it torch! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baroclinic Zone Posted February 24, 2016 Author Share Posted February 24, 2016 Sunday Monday Tan the napes 60s Monday sweet Draw the shades on WInter 2015/16. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dendrite Posted February 24, 2016 Share Posted February 24, 2016 So Monday is another cutter in NNE? wow...that was fast...save my self a vacation day. It never really gets down to our latitude...I hate to call it a cutter. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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