dendrite Posted February 23, 2016 Share Posted February 23, 2016 It's true, hard to snow when it doesn't precipitate. But we are below normal in precipitation this winter I believe but I'll have to run the numbers. Cold usually at least means NW flow and some upslope for you. I can probably count on both of my thumbs the number of times I've read "Froude number" this season. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
powderfreak Posted February 23, 2016 Share Posted February 23, 2016 I didn't say that. I said you need both. To clarify - at the same timeWasn't implying you said it, just that those are the two theories on here (you said the first one, give me QPF and take chances) a lot. Of course you need both, lol. That's like saying it usually gets warmer as you go deeper into spring. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JC-CT Posted February 23, 2016 Share Posted February 23, 2016 Wasn't implying you said it, just that those are the two theories on here (you said the first one, give me QPF and take chances) a lot. Of course you need both, lol. That's like saying it usually gets warmer as you go deeper into spring. I posted my thoughts on that in the pattern thread, page 1. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
powderfreak Posted February 23, 2016 Share Posted February 23, 2016 Cold usually at least means NW flow and some upslope for you. I can probably count on both of my thumbs the number of times I've read "Froude number" this season.It has to be below freezing, that's the only cold we need, haha. We haven't had much upslope luck since 2011-2012 ironically...in terms of a winter with several quality events. And that wasn't a cold winter. I had at least three warning criteria upslope events that winter (explains how we got 90" and BTV got 30").But yes when it's cold we can get 1-3" like last year all the time. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted February 23, 2016 Share Posted February 23, 2016 We've also had it be near or below zero at least 3 times and then rain with 36 hours, so "bring the cold first and then take your chances" doesn't seem to have worked much better lol. I'll still take the QPF anytime. That's paying off big-time about 100 miles north of here this winter. Oh def...esp where you are. You can be getting crushed with temps in the mid 20s and that's above average there. At any rate...more chances on the Euro ensembles!!! I'm sure that will get a lot of black and white analysis from the usual suspects here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted February 23, 2016 Share Posted February 23, 2016 Oh def...esp where you are. You can be getting crushed with temps in the mid 20s and that's above average there. At any rate...more chances on the Euro ensembles!!! I'm sure that will get a lot of black and white analysis from the usual suspects here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted February 23, 2016 Share Posted February 23, 2016 2012 had lows in good spots with warmer air that was plenty cold for snow, but held more moisture too. I'm sure hat helped with upslope. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
powderfreak Posted February 23, 2016 Share Posted February 23, 2016 2012 had lows in good spots with warmer air that was plenty cold for snow, but held more moisture too. I'm sure hat helped with upslope.I'm always trying to figure out the best upslope pattern...there is definitely a specific synoptic pattern that makes those events more frequent in some years than others, and not just cold patterns. Whatever pattern allows for Atlantic Maritime moisture to wrap back into here. Usually the very cold air masses give the light 1-3" events, but the best are just like -10C at H85 with maritime moisture.The -20C at 850mb upslope is very limited due to the lack of PWATS usually. So like last year you get the 1-3" and that's about all you can squeeze...and if it's air coming from the Canadian prairies or something that's not moist air to begin with. Either way, it is interesting how certain winters are predisposed to being upslope favorable over other winters in the aggregate. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted February 23, 2016 Share Posted February 23, 2016 This is like me standing next to Ryan Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
powderfreak Posted February 23, 2016 Share Posted February 23, 2016 This is like me standing next to Ryan I still chuckle about how much we talked about '82-82 this fall...and that this has actually been slightly worse than that so far. . What can ya do but laugh. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted February 23, 2016 Share Posted February 23, 2016 I still chuckle about how much we talked about '82-82 this fall...and that this has actually been slightly worse than that so far. . What can ya do but laugh. short season? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
eyewall Posted February 23, 2016 Share Posted February 23, 2016 Even the Single Chair Weather Blog admits being close to drinking the cynic's kool-aid as of yesterday. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
powderfreak Posted February 23, 2016 Share Posted February 23, 2016 short season? Definitely not a tall season. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Randy4Confluence Posted February 23, 2016 Share Posted February 23, 2016 Why isn't the -EPO working for us this year, compared the The 2 previous years? Is the Southern Jet stronger causing storms to be more amped? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
codfishsnowman Posted February 23, 2016 Share Posted February 23, 2016 the one thing that is maddening to me is all the talk about blocking forecast to develop but now that seems less likely and models are showing all these cutters...so maybe something happens but the clock is rapidly ticking for the hartford springfield area post march 5th I did really think there was a solid change afoot for the first couple weeks of March and was somewhat hopeful....I am trying but do not seem much to be hopeful for going forward right now there was a lot of talk a few days back about an arctic shot for this weekend and that looks hideously mild now for at least a couple days...i think the models really suck this season outside of a general idea of a pattern and the euro is really underestimating the war on some of the longer range and mid range guidance Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted February 23, 2016 Share Posted February 23, 2016 Why isn't the -EPO working for us this year, compared the The 2 previous years? Is the Southern Jet stronger causing storms to be more amped? PV has been pretty far north. Every time a disturbance moves south from western Canada, the cold lifts out and we get a cutter. Previous EPOs have had more of a srn location of the PV which helped prevent cutters. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted February 23, 2016 Share Posted February 23, 2016 the one thing that is maddening to me is all the talk about blocking forecast to develop but now that seems less likely and models are showing all these cutters...so maybe something happens but the clock is rapidly ticking for the hartford springfield area post march 5th I did really think there was a solid change afoot for the first couple weeks of March and was somewhat hopeful....I am trying but do not seem much to be hopeful for going forward right now There is still blocking in NW Canada. That hasn't changed. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EastonSN+ Posted February 23, 2016 Share Posted February 23, 2016 Just saw the op EURO and wow people arent kidding about a bad look. Lets hope it flips back tomorrow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted February 23, 2016 Share Posted February 23, 2016 Why isn't the -EPO working for us this year, compared the The 2 previous years? Is the Southern Jet stronger causing storms to be more amped? well for starters ... it hasn't been that terribly negative - not nearly like last year and previous, when it sustained - 2 to - 4 SD at almost all times. Nothing like that has occurred this year. Not even crose said the China man - In fact ... just the eye-ball of the bar graph provided by CDC argues it has been positive more than negative. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorEastermass128 Posted February 23, 2016 Share Posted February 23, 2016 Well looks like we stay mild U40s-M50s into the middle of next week now. We spring. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted February 23, 2016 Share Posted February 23, 2016 Well looks like we stay mild U40s-M50s into the middle of next week now. We spring. wut? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted February 23, 2016 Share Posted February 23, 2016 Lol at the 18z GFS, you think PF sees that 4 feet with Kuchera ratio clown map? Gees us Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted February 24, 2016 Share Posted February 24, 2016 Gfs was really snowy for the interior by hour 240 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted February 24, 2016 Share Posted February 24, 2016 Lol at the 18z GFS, you think PF sees that 4 feet with Kuchera ratio clown map? Gees us March 3 storm went further south on the 18z. South trend? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HoarfrostHubb Posted February 24, 2016 Share Posted February 24, 2016 Lol at the 18z GFS, you think PF sees that 4 feet with Kuchera ratio clown map? Gees us He's still shoveling last week's 3 feet Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorEastermass128 Posted February 24, 2016 Share Posted February 24, 2016 wut? wut 55-60F Monday and staying mild through midweek. We spring for a while. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted February 24, 2016 Share Posted February 24, 2016 wut 55-60F Monday and staying mild through midweek. We spring for a while. thats not what you said, don't ignore Thursday to Sun Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mreaves Posted February 24, 2016 Share Posted February 24, 2016 He's still shoveling last week's 3 feetHell, my shoulders are still hurting from all that shoveling. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted February 24, 2016 Share Posted February 24, 2016 Hell, my shoulders are still hurting from all that shoveling.that's an awesome weenie maps lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWolf Posted February 24, 2016 Share Posted February 24, 2016 Gfs was really snowy for the interior by hour 240 Lol of course it is...its 10 days out!! We've seen that look many times all winter, it just never gets much closer-let alone ever verifys. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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