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Model Mezzanine - 3rd times a charm


Baroclinic Zone

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 Probably later next week. It's certainly not a given, but that's what I would watch. The first one on MOnday is likely either a weak cutter or fropa. Warm Sunday/Monday.

Another shot at 60 for usual spots Unreal

That one also looked like snow as recent as 2 days ago.

 

 

 

That massive polar pig never makes it.

 

This just reeks of the season going quietly into the sunset as an early spring

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theoretically the 4KM Nam should be at a finer detail be able to forecast the atmosphere in smaller slices, picking up nuances such as terrain and ocean influence etc better, smaller grid equal more accurate forecast , ....NOT

Makes sense, and what I thought but I just wanted to hear it from someone who knows what they are talking about (which is obviously not me).

 

Thanks, Steve.

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Weenies.

 

Looks like your classic result from cold plunging into the Plains. The first low is a cutter and then you get successive systems that come farther and farther east. We see that all the time. 

 

This winter's version seems to have the easterly progression leap over New England to hit Halifax (or farther south/east), then reload back to DET.  Does not mean that sad tale will rule in March, however.

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I don't see anything remotely close to an early Spring pattern. 

 

Yeah the pattern actually looks better the further out you go. Obviously you are fighting the climo aspect, but that won't matter as much in the interior.

 

After the FROPA on 2/29-3/1...the setup is more favorable. We still do not have a -NAO which we've harped on pretty much the entire winter...so everyone should know what that entails by now...however, everything else is pretty favorable, so we'll take our hacks.

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Yeah the pattern actually looks better the further out you go. Obviously you are fighting the climo aspect, but that won't matter as much in the interior.

 

After the FROPA on 2/29-3/1...the setup is more favorable. We still do not have a -NAO which we've harped on pretty much the entire winter...so everyone should know what that entails by now...however, everything else is pretty favorable, so we'll take our hacks.

that's part of the problem-it's not moving up in time-several days ago this weekend looked cold and now we are average to warm and are looking to 3/2 and beyond....maybe it pans out, but seems that the cold and blocking back off as we get closer

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 Exactly, not knocking anyone here, this has been a difficult winter to forecast, but several mets were saying the same exact thing last week about this week into the first of March; it seem like every "favorable" period gets knocked back a week or so by a favorable set up that winds up a cutter. March could turn out to be the perfect storm per se, but it seems like the pattern is pretty much locked where it has been since mid January.

WAR (western atlantic ridge) has been locked in place since late January-you almost want to see a storm modeled about 300-400 miles off the coast so when the modeling sees the strength of the WAR and corrects it west, we can actually get a shot a snowstorm

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