CoastalWx Posted February 23, 2016 Share Posted February 23, 2016 Weenies. Looks like your classic result from cold plunging into the Plains. The first low is a cutter and then you get successive systems that come farther and farther east. We see that all the time. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted February 23, 2016 Share Posted February 23, 2016 On 2/23/2016 at 11:08 AM, CoastalWx said: Weenies. Looks like your classic result from cold plunging into the Plains. The first low is a cutter and then you get successive systems that come farther and farther east. We see that all the time. You have to admit though..Doesn't look very promising. it's just had that look for several days Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted February 23, 2016 Share Posted February 23, 2016 On 2/23/2016 at 11:12 AM, Damage In Tolland said: You have to admit though..Doesn't look very promising. it's just had that look for several days I'm still optimistic for a few events in New England through mid month. I don't see any reason to change that. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted February 23, 2016 Share Posted February 23, 2016 On 2/23/2016 at 11:22 AM, CoastalWx said: I'm still optimistic for a few events in New England through mid month. I don't see any reason to change that. When is the first one for SNE to watch a bit? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted February 23, 2016 Share Posted February 23, 2016 On 2/23/2016 at 11:40 AM, Damage In Tolland said: When is the first one for SNE to watch a bit? Probably later next week. It's certainly not a given, but that's what I would watch. The first one on MOnday is likely either a weak cutter or fropa. Warm Sunday/Monday. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted February 23, 2016 Share Posted February 23, 2016 On 2/23/2016 at 11:48 AM, CoastalWx said: Probably later next week. It's certainly not a given, but that's what I would watch. The first one on MOnday is likely either a weak cutter or fropa. Warm Sunday/Monday. Another shot at 60 for usual spots Unreal That one also looked like snow as recent as 2 days ago. That massive polar pig never makes it. This just reeks of the season going quietly into the sunset as an early spring Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted February 23, 2016 Share Posted February 23, 2016 On 2/23/2016 at 12:09 PM, Damage In Tolland said: Another shot at 60 for usual spots Unreal It's not unreal. It happens this time of year. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted February 23, 2016 Share Posted February 23, 2016 On 2/23/2016 at 12:11 PM, CoastalWx said: It's not unreal. It happens this time of year. You don't get 3-5 days of temps around 60 in Feb. that is not normal It is normal in a #ninoheater however Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted February 23, 2016 Share Posted February 23, 2016 On 2/23/2016 at 12:12 PM, Damage In Tolland said: You don't get 3-5 days of temps around 60 in Feb. that is not normal It is normal in a #ninoheater however It happens in any winter. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted February 23, 2016 Share Posted February 23, 2016 On 2/23/2016 at 12:13 PM, CoastalWx said: It happens in any winter.So every Feb gets 3-5 days 55-60? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted February 23, 2016 Share Posted February 23, 2016 On 2/23/2016 at 12:16 PM, Damage In Tolland said: So every Feb gets 3-5 days 55-60? You get a cutter and then a warm up in late feb. This isn't earth shattering. Anyways, a lot of false hopes of early Spring will probably happen. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted February 23, 2016 Share Posted February 23, 2016 On 2/23/2016 at 12:23 PM, CoastalWx said: You get a cutter and then a warm up in late feb. This isn't earth shattering. Anyways, a lot of false hopes of early Spring will probably happen.Hope so but man I don't know. Sure looks like we just kind of end things shortly Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted February 23, 2016 Share Posted February 23, 2016 On 2/23/2016 at 12:29 PM, Damage In Tolland said: Hope so but man I don't know. Sure looks like we just kind of end things shortly I don't see anything remotely close to an early Spring pattern. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted February 23, 2016 Share Posted February 23, 2016 On 2/23/2016 at 12:12 PM, Damage In Tolland said: You don't get 3-5 days of temps around 60 in Feb. that is not normal It is normal in a #ninoheater however Not that rare but top ten Number of Days in Feb above 57 at bradley 1 1991 5 - 1981 5 - 1976 5 4 1985 4 - 1954 4 6 1997 3 - 1990 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted February 23, 2016 Share Posted February 23, 2016 On 2/23/2016 at 12:30 PM, CoastalWx said: I don't see anything remotely close to an early Spring pattern. He is casting bait Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cold Miser Posted February 23, 2016 Share Posted February 23, 2016 On 2/23/2016 at 12:33 PM, Ginx snewx said: He is casting bait ...Or truly hoping to be able to poison his lawn extra early this year. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cold Miser Posted February 23, 2016 Share Posted February 23, 2016 On 2/22/2016 at 8:38 PM, Ginx snewx said: theoretically the 4KM Nam should be at a finer detail be able to forecast the atmosphere in smaller slices, picking up nuances such as terrain and ocean influence etc better, smaller grid equal more accurate forecast , ....NOT Makes sense, and what I thought but I just wanted to hear it from someone who knows what they are talking about (which is obviously not me). Thanks, Steve. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SouthCoastMA Posted February 23, 2016 Share Posted February 23, 2016 NYC forum weenies cancelling winter already. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tamarack Posted February 23, 2016 Share Posted February 23, 2016 On 2/23/2016 at 11:08 AM, CoastalWx said: Weenies. Looks like your classic result from cold plunging into the Plains. The first low is a cutter and then you get successive systems that come farther and farther east. We see that all the time. This winter's version seems to have the easterly progression leap over New England to hit Halifax (or farther south/east), then reload back to DET. Does not mean that sad tale will rule in March, however. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CNY-LES FREAK Posted February 23, 2016 Share Posted February 23, 2016 On 2/23/2016 at 2:58 PM, SouthCoastMA said: NYC forum weenies cancelling winter already. already, lol?? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allsnow Posted February 23, 2016 Share Posted February 23, 2016 On 2/23/2016 at 2:58 PM, SouthCoastMA said: NYC forum weenies cancelling winter already. Nobody canceled winter in this forum yet? There is two to three threads dedicated to it Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SouthCoastMA Posted February 23, 2016 Share Posted February 23, 2016 On 2/23/2016 at 3:22 PM, Allsnow said: Nobody canceled winter in this forum yet? There is two to three threads dedicated to it Either way, many mets are saying the models looks promising going right into mid-march. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted February 23, 2016 Share Posted February 23, 2016 On 2/23/2016 at 12:30 PM, CoastalWx said: I don't see anything remotely close to an early Spring pattern. Yeah the pattern actually looks better the further out you go. Obviously you are fighting the climo aspect, but that won't matter as much in the interior. After the FROPA on 2/29-3/1...the setup is more favorable. We still do not have a -NAO which we've harped on pretty much the entire winter...so everyone should know what that entails by now...however, everything else is pretty favorable, so we'll take our hacks. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allsnow Posted February 23, 2016 Share Posted February 23, 2016 On 2/23/2016 at 3:27 PM, SouthCoastMA said: Either way, many mets are saying the models looks promising going right into mid-march. Just posters living by operational run, it all depends on what happens with PV and the block. The further north they set up the bigger risk we run for cutters with cold after them Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brian5671 Posted February 23, 2016 Share Posted February 23, 2016 it's the op GFS but it's horrible at 12z warmth and cutters as far as the eye can see. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brian5671 Posted February 23, 2016 Share Posted February 23, 2016 On 2/23/2016 at 3:28 PM, ORH_wxman said: Yeah the pattern actually looks better the further out you go. Obviously you are fighting the climo aspect, but that won't matter as much in the interior. After the FROPA on 2/29-3/1...the setup is more favorable. We still do not have a -NAO which we've harped on pretty much the entire winter...so everyone should know what that entails by now...however, everything else is pretty favorable, so we'll take our hacks. that's part of the problem-it's not moving up in time-several days ago this weekend looked cold and now we are average to warm and are looking to 3/2 and beyond....maybe it pans out, but seems that the cold and blocking back off as we get closer Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allsnow Posted February 23, 2016 Share Posted February 23, 2016 On 2/23/2016 at 4:46 PM, Brian5671 said: it's the op GFS but it's horrible at 12z warmth and cutters as far as the eye can see. CmC is similar not saying it correct but that system next week come out of the sw to amped up Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JC-CT Posted February 23, 2016 Share Posted February 23, 2016 This could be a very, very special winter stretch for Chicago. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brian5671 Posted February 23, 2016 Share Posted February 23, 2016 On 2/23/2016 at 5:00 PM, JC-CT said: This could be a very, very special winter stretch for Chicago. Chicago, Green Bay, Detroit and even Cleveland could really clean up the next 10 days Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brian5671 Posted February 23, 2016 Share Posted February 23, 2016 On 2/23/2016 at 5:13 PM, Albert A Clipper said: Exactly, not knocking anyone here, this has been a difficult winter to forecast, but several mets were saying the same exact thing last week about this week into the first of March; it seem like every "favorable" period gets knocked back a week or so by a favorable set up that winds up a cutter. March could turn out to be the perfect storm per se, but it seems like the pattern is pretty much locked where it has been since mid January. WAR (western atlantic ridge) has been locked in place since late January-you almost want to see a storm modeled about 300-400 miles off the coast so when the modeling sees the strength of the WAR and corrects it west, we can actually get a shot a snowstorm Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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