Baroclinic Zone Posted February 20, 2016 Share Posted February 20, 2016 Last thread has run its course. 2 threats on tap. 1st is a clipper for Monday that may clip southern areas. 2nd is a larger threat that as of right now looks wet but any deviation in track east could be the threat of more wintry weather to the area, especially central and northern New England. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JC-CT Posted February 20, 2016 Share Posted February 20, 2016 Last thread has run its course. 2 threats on tap. 1st is a clipper for Monday that may clip southern areas. 2nd is a larger threat that as of right now looks wet but any deviation in track east could be the threat of more wintry weather to the area, especially central and northern New England. Good call on the new thread. However, I would point out that there is a storm specific thread for Monday. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baroclinic Zone Posted February 20, 2016 Author Share Posted February 20, 2016 Live by the NAM, die by the NAM. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MBRI Posted February 20, 2016 Share Posted February 20, 2016 Wasn't that suppose to be over the Great Lakes? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWolf Posted February 20, 2016 Share Posted February 20, 2016 Wasn't that suppose to be over the Great Lakes? Most every other model does have it as a cutter, you're right. It's the 84 hour NAM, that's why it's showing a coastal. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
medmax Posted February 20, 2016 Share Posted February 20, 2016 In NAM we trust. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted February 20, 2016 Share Posted February 20, 2016 Holy hell, what a disaster by some this morning in the other thread....we have some real whiners in here. We're not gonna let it derail this thread...if you can't keep that stuff to the 2 or three other threads (either banter, debbie downer thread, etc) then we'll just 5 post you. As for next week's threat, we've basically lost the the front runner wave we needed for snow, so now the longwave pattern is going to feed right into a cutter...the only way to avoid that is for a missed phase...ala the 00z GGEM which had the southern stream rumble along the southern tier after it missed the phase and turn up the coast later, so we didn't get a cutter. The destructive wave interference that has been prevalent a lot of the winter is what we are now rooting for to save our winter chances in that system....and we need it via the missed phase now....unless the front runner wave comes back on guidance. But it was pretty weak looking on the vort fields last night. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JC-CT Posted February 20, 2016 Share Posted February 20, 2016 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted February 20, 2016 Share Posted February 20, 2016 Holy hell, what a disaster by some this morning in the other thread....we have some real whiners in here. We're not gonna let it derail this thread...if you can't keep that stuff to the 2 or three other threads (either banter, debbie downer thread, etc) then we'll just 5 post you. As for next week's threat, we've basically lost the the front runner wave we needed for snow, so now the longwave pattern is going to feed right into a cutter...the only way to avoid that is for a missed phase...ala the 00z GGEM which had the southern stream rumble along the southern tier after it missed the phase and turn up the coast later, so we didn't get a cutter. The destructive wave interference that has been prevalent a lot of the winter is what we are now rooting for to save our winter chances in that system....and we need it via the missed phase now....unless the front runner wave comes back on guidance. But it was pretty weak looking on the vort fields last night. Similar to Feb 8's scenario - in fact, the 00z GGEM looked remarkably similar, actually... Unfortunately for the beleaguered snow wanders seeking salvation and solace, it, and it's creepy uncle, the NAVGEM, are among the lesser reliable operational model types and appear to be on their own. One thing about that run that is intriguing (for a nerd...) is that the GGEM, of all models, is usually the last model to capitulate to a partial or missed phase opportunity. That model usually stops at nothing to phase a S/W over Alaska with a typhoon in the Indian Ocean! Be that as it may, even when accounting for intrinsic model suckiness ... it's interesting to see some 1,000 mi of variant storm tracks and attending differences in the handling of governing dynamical details ..et al. It's a tough time of year for me - not that anyone asks... But when I step outside on a day like today, the temperature is soaring to 50 and the late February sun is undeniable much hotter to the skin than at any time since the end of last September (good call on that by the way...), I'm triggered. The last thing I want to see is snow... The upshot there is days like today can only happen more and more going forward ...their frequency of return increasing. It really seems as though this winter's nadir was chosen last week during that Arctic smack. Bumpy slope out ... Yet I don't cast any illusions over where my mentality would be if somehow this bent colder over the next several days If the NAVGEM and GGEM scored an almost unprecedented coup for kind of time range, I'm sure I'd be just as giddy and the next - Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted February 20, 2016 Share Posted February 20, 2016 Yeah, as I've opined ad nauseam so often over recent months - and therefore hugely agree - this has been just a fantastically persistent destructive interference behavior occurring at virtually all times this last three months. It has really been killing storm chances this season.. If we think back to the big event on the Mid Atlantic, that particularly system's evolution featured NO wave interaction - interestingly enough.. The N stream had all but completely retracted up into Canada and the system feasted instead on vestigial cold... Otherwise, a constructive interference would have turned it up the coast more and also made it more intense... The trough that produced that event was actually filling, and the storm weakening markedly by the time it succeeded the lat/lon as near-by as even Nova Scotia. That's a clue as to it having 0 help from the N stream. It's like we've witness 10 destructive wave interference bonings ..., and one no-wave interference boning ... But hell be reigning earth if there's a constructive one? Anyway, I was just looking over the other guidance' more thoroughly... The UKMET, GFS and even the NAM ... they are all picking up on, and strengthening (trend), a new wave presentation up over Alberta/Manitoba provinces (circa 84-90 hours)... There is interaction between it and the lead system (which prior was the more singular focus) ... In the case of the GGEM and NAVGEM, they are showing the most interference in the form of spatial motivation. They are opting to use the fact that the geopotential medium over the western Atlantic is not particularly "ridgy" during the lead up time frames, and thus offers limited eastward blocking at mid latitudes. Intuitively I could see that happen; perhaps as a correction among the other guidance' incoming... (not a forecast - just saying it's all not impossible). One thing to note, the tired but true axiom about data sampling is DEFINITELY in play here in my mind. All staring events and features during next week's show are out over the Pacific, and won't begin relaying over land until overnight, tomorrow night...then later on over night into Tuesday for any secondary wave mechanics up over Manitoba. Recall the flat wave 6-12" storm we seemed to defy all odds and cash-in on last month? Well, that one was all but lost until it came over land - and while we can be certain data sampling was the culprit ...there is/was no other apparent differences to focus on as causal for such drastically needed short-term corrections,. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jbenedet Posted February 20, 2016 Share Posted February 20, 2016 I'd hope for this to really amp up at this point. And I actually don't expect that we're done with the west/amped up trend just yet. From the long wave pattern to the amped shortwave west of the Gulf, and the favorable teleconnections for a phaser (absent blocking), this just has big GL cutter written all over it. If we see this occlude early, there's plenty of embedded energy within that H500 low to make something magical happen - a la a new surface low spawning at the triple point. The 6z GFS hints at this, but I'd like to see that low take precedence after hr 120 or so, as the parent surface low fizzles...The faster the first system matures, the more likely we can get a "thread the needle" surprise. Low probability, but its something that makes this event more interesting than it appears at this point for our area. Or perhaps, if we get this far enough west, it will drape the baroclinic zone in a favorable spot for cyclogenesis along the east coast...Volatile and energetic patterns such as this are notorious for surprises--for the better, or worse--- in under 100 hrs... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WhiteLawns Posted February 20, 2016 Share Posted February 20, 2016 Is it just me of will the gfs be way different this run? 1004 vs 997 00z wed. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted February 20, 2016 Share Posted February 20, 2016 Even though Tip said no yesterday. Enjoy 55-60 much of SNE today as we wind down winter Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted February 20, 2016 Share Posted February 20, 2016 Is it just me of will the gfs be way different this run? 1004 vs 997 00z wed. Back east this run, but still a cutter...it just took away Chicago's blizzard again. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jbenedet Posted February 20, 2016 Share Posted February 20, 2016 Back east this run, but still a cutter...it just took away Chicago's blizzard again. yep Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jbenedet Posted February 20, 2016 Share Posted February 20, 2016 We desperately need a strong block in place for this setup to work for us. So unless one materializes...she's cutting.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WhiteLawns Posted February 20, 2016 Share Posted February 20, 2016 Back east this run, but still a cutter...it just took away Chicago's blizzard again. Would you say the ice storm potential is still pretty good for the interior? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted February 20, 2016 Share Posted February 20, 2016 Even though Tip said no yesterday. Enjoy 55-60 much of SNE today as we wind down winter Wrong thread, dinkus - actually i was given ya shist and trying to wind you up... yeah, no I'm a big proponent at this time of year of going above MOS on days absent of CAA. that's always been and auto correction since the invention of the normalized MOS tooling.. Not sure why that product can be ...mutable (for lack of better word) during the spring, when sans cold air advection, the sun seems more often than not to encourage the temperature over MOS... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted February 20, 2016 Share Posted February 20, 2016 Back east this run, but still a cutter...it just took away Chicago's blizzard again. not to toot my own horn ... but it hearkens immediately to wave-spacing issues and those mechanics up there giving the lead a shove. duple waves constructing the totality of l/w's this year - fascinating... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted February 20, 2016 Share Posted February 20, 2016 Would you say the ice storm potential is still pretty good for the interior? The potential is definitely diminished now. There is still decent CAD at the onset on some of these cutter solutions, so there will probably be some icing...but full-on icestorm I think it becoming quite a bit less likely. Still, we'll have to watch if some semblance of a front runner wave reappears as that would increase chances again. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baroclinic Zone Posted February 20, 2016 Author Share Posted February 20, 2016 GFS track looks pretty close to mean. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted February 20, 2016 Share Posted February 20, 2016 I was just comparing the 00z and this 12z 84 to 72 hour frames and the lead wave is indeed 6 to 12 hours faster heading over the lower High Planes region. whether that is indeed for getting a push by the further up stream or not...that does appear to parlay into a slight east position of events downstream out in time. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WhiteLawns Posted February 20, 2016 Share Posted February 20, 2016 The potential is definitely diminished now. There is still decent CAD at the onset on some of these cutter solutions, so there will probably be some icing...but full-on icestorm I think it becoming quite a bit less likely. Still, we'll have to watch if some semblance of a front runner wave reappears as that would increase chances again. I mean could getting the storm sampled once it enters the CONUS make big changes? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted February 20, 2016 Share Posted February 20, 2016 Looks like the GGEM is gonna whiff on the phase again. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted February 20, 2016 Share Posted February 20, 2016 Here, I wanted to illustrate my point (and that of Will's and any others, too) about wave spacing/influences on embedded trough features. In the annotations below, the follow-up mechanics (red) are bullying S and in between it and the (black) lead system, there is a coherent S/W ridge rolling along.. Meanwhile we don't see a hell of a lot of reasons to prevent an east correction for the lead system out over the western Atlantic. The totality of the two waves don't have to violate any L/W, wave-length arguments that way (considering the synoptic ridge in the west is relatively fixed in position through the week)... It's like you take (latitude1 + latitude2)/2 and that equals the trough position of the total L/W dimensions... This is why Feb 8 got goosed out into the Atlantic; if it can all happen once this season, it can happen twice... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted February 20, 2016 Share Posted February 20, 2016 GGEM is fairly similar to last night...mostly a coastal track but it hooks a little more N at the end into CT River. This evolution is something to watch...wouldnt take much to get it further east. Of course, there's the front runner wave too on the GGEM, but it misses E. The whole system is a mess. We're not in a great position, but it's not hopeless either. Particularly for the interior folk. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JC-CT Posted February 20, 2016 Share Posted February 20, 2016 I'm finding it difficult to reconcile the consistency of the ukmet vs other guidance seemingly dancing their way around its solution. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JC-CT Posted February 20, 2016 Share Posted February 20, 2016 Gefs mean is slower than op but similar track. West of 6z mean Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted February 20, 2016 Share Posted February 20, 2016 Can you imagine something like this ever passing UNDER our latitude ...heading off the Del Marva out over the G-string ? nice my other dastardly fantasy is to take a 100 mile X 100 mile X 1 mi deep slab of Amazonian solstice air mass, and just plop it down in the core of the SH polar vortex ... just to see what happens... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted February 20, 2016 Share Posted February 20, 2016 Next. Lipsticking a pig we might get a save but this setup sucks. ROC and SYR again? JC I couldn't read your maps. To me GGEM looked like a pig smelled like a pig. Not the best way to start 12z, save a horse ride the NAM? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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