dmillz25 Posted February 22, 2016 Share Posted February 22, 2016 The GFS says NAM what are you smoking? Lol Or maybe the GFS smoking ? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mophstymeo Posted February 22, 2016 Share Posted February 22, 2016 Or maybe the GFS smoking ? I don't trust the crazy uncle (18z), so let's see what the 0z says. And it's raining right now. Sent from my iPad using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WeatherFeen2000 Posted February 22, 2016 Share Posted February 22, 2016 Any word on the sref's? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Doorman Posted February 22, 2016 Share Posted February 22, 2016 It's a start.... http://digital.weather.gov/ MAXPO-UPTON Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted February 22, 2016 Author Share Posted February 22, 2016 The SREF's are wet. Over an inch of LE halfway through the event. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Zelocita Weather Posted February 22, 2016 Share Posted February 22, 2016 The SREF's are wet. Over an inch of LE halfway through the event. For that first wave, or the whole thing? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted February 22, 2016 Share Posted February 22, 2016 The SREF's are wet. Over an inch of LE halfway through the event. Whole thing Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted February 22, 2016 Share Posted February 22, 2016 First wave not impressive on sref Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted February 22, 2016 Share Posted February 22, 2016 Nam is too warm for storm 1 along the coast Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Doorman Posted February 22, 2016 Share Posted February 22, 2016 Nam is too warm for storm 1 along the coast Tony ..Check the 4k Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted February 22, 2016 Author Share Posted February 22, 2016 Models have 3 different waves of precipitation with drizzle between. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
donsutherland1 Posted February 22, 2016 Share Posted February 22, 2016 The 4km NAM, which has offered the snowiest solution for the NYC area (NJ, southeastern NY, and CT) has shifted northward with its heaviest snows. That model appears to be evolving toward the greater body of guidance that favors little snowfall for this area from the upcoming storm. Let's see if that evolution continues with subsequent runs. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wthrmn654 Posted February 22, 2016 Share Posted February 22, 2016 32 nam jumps the low to middle of Pennsylvania if not even further east of that. Weird Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted February 22, 2016 Share Posted February 22, 2016 GGEM lost the front end. Threat done. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted February 22, 2016 Share Posted February 22, 2016 GFS has a dusting Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted February 22, 2016 Share Posted February 22, 2016 6Z 12knam still has 2-4 along the coast Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted February 22, 2016 Share Posted February 22, 2016 rgem has snow just to the north of nyc. Looks like a few inches for tomorrow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted February 22, 2016 Share Posted February 22, 2016 12k Nam 4k Nam also shows the same thing http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/?model=nam4km®ion=us&pkg=asnow&runtime=2016022212&fh=39&xpos=0&ypos=16 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ag3 Posted February 22, 2016 Share Posted February 22, 2016 Tomorrow night's event is the interior special. Finally a storm that LI and NYC sees very little and the interior sees a few inches. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nyblizz44 Posted February 22, 2016 Share Posted February 22, 2016 Tomorrow night's event is the interior special. Finally a storm that LI and NYC sees very little and the interior sees a few inches. But the NAM clearly insists otherwise so what makes you say that? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brian5671 Posted February 22, 2016 Share Posted February 22, 2016 Tomorrow night's event is the interior special. Finally a storm that LI and NYC sees very little and the interior sees a few inches. maybe. Not much cold air so would not be surprised to see models warm up and lose the threat by tomorrow am the way this winter has gone Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted February 22, 2016 Author Share Posted February 22, 2016 Models converging on what the ensembles have been showing for days. 1.5" of rain with lollies to 3". Should at least support some minor river flooding in NJ. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ag3 Posted February 22, 2016 Share Posted February 22, 2016 maybe. Not much cold air so would not be surprised to see models warm up and lose the threat by tomorrow am the way this winter has gone Fairly sure anyone north of Manhattan will see 2"-4"/3"-6". NYCs boroughs (outside of Manhattan) little to a slushy coating. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowman19 Posted February 22, 2016 Share Posted February 22, 2016 Models converging on what the ensembles have been showing for days. 1.5" of rain with lollies to 3". Should at least support some minor river flooding in NJ.This looks like quite the rain event. There will be a strong subtropical moisture feed. I don't doubt some 3 inch rain totals at all Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Zelocita Weather Posted February 22, 2016 Share Posted February 22, 2016 EURO have anything for tomorrow's wave? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowman19 Posted February 22, 2016 Share Posted February 22, 2016 EURO have anything for tomorrow's wave?Non event for snow Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted February 22, 2016 Author Share Posted February 22, 2016 EURO have anything for tomorrow's wave? Warm and wet. About 0.25-0.50" for the first wave. More East of NYC. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted February 22, 2016 Author Share Posted February 22, 2016 High res Euro snow map actually has some of the higher elevations in NJ picking up a few inches. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted February 22, 2016 Author Share Posted February 22, 2016 15z SREF mean is over 2" of rain for everyone. I also think it's possible to get some severe. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brian5671 Posted February 22, 2016 Share Posted February 22, 2016 Warm and wet. About 0.25-0.50" for the first wave. More East of NYC. makes sense given the warm airmass in place now-would expect the NAM to show less snow on coming 18z and 0z runs - edit-not on the 18z nam! Has 5-7 inches north of NYC! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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